Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Analyses of academician cohorts generate biased pandemic excess death estimates

“…1,21,22 Also during the pandemic there were no excess deaths but consistently reduced mortality for children and adolescents. 17,23 Inappropriate extrapolation of the mortality experience from elderly frail populations to non-frail and younger populations was a major misunderstanding perpetuated in various forms throughout the pandemic. 24–27…”

Changes in life expectancy and life span equality during the COVID-19 epidemic in Japan up to 2022

“…Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in Wuhan, China in November 2019, evidence of the pandemic's impact on mortality has accumulated globally, with substantial geographical heterogeneity. [1][2][3][4][5][6] Global studies suggest that from January 1 st , 2020 to December 31 st , 2021, excess deaths worldwide were in the range of 14.9-15.9 million, with a large proportion attributed to India and the United States. [3,4] Published studies suggest that the global life expectancy change was −1.6 years from 2019 to 2021, when many countries showed bounce-backs from the shortening in 2020.…”

“…However, other countries faced sustained shortening into 2021. [4][5][6] It is now several years since the emergence of COVID-19, and the evaluation of the mortality impact of the condition has become more difficult for several reasons. One reason is changes in the official COVID-19 statistics, which are provided by public health agencies around the world and reflect epidemic activity.…”

“…In line with other regions, Japan has been severely affected by COVID-19 in terms of excess mortality and life expectancy shortening. [1,[3][4][5]14,[18][19][20][21] The updated estimates by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research suggest that life expectancy at birth has shortened for two consecutive years, from 84.58 years in 2021 to 84.10 in 2022 for the total population. However, it is not clear whether the causespecific impact of this shortening has changed since 2021.…”

“…[1–6] Global studies suggest that from January 1 st , 2020 to December 31 st , 2021, excess deaths worldwide were in the range of 14.9– 15.9 million, with a large proportion attributed to India and the United States. [3,4] Published studies suggest that the global life expectancy change was −1.6 years from 2019 to 2021, when many countries showed bounce-backs from the shortening in 2020. However, other countries faced sustained shortening into 2021.…”