Global analysis of fish growth rates shows weaker responses to temperature than metabolic predictions

Denderen, P. Daniël van; Gislason, Henrik; Heuvel, Joost van den; Andersen, Ken Haste

doi:10.1111/geb.13189

Cited by 52 publications

(50 citation statements)

References 52 publications

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“…First, large pelagics experience competition from demersal fish, thriving in regions where the demersals do not have support from benthic production (van Denderen et al, 2018), most notably in the low export, oligotrophic tropics. Second, the relationship between growth and temperature is lower for large pelagic fish than for small pelagic fishes (van Denderen et al, 2020), which could arise from metabolic rates that increase with temperature at a rate greater than the feeding rates and supports our parameterization. Third, basin-wide migrations of large pelagics across oligotrophic regions are often in search of favorable larval environments (e.g., Bakun, 2013;Reglero et al, 2014) during which adults feed advantageously at mesoscale features (e.g., Polovina et al, 2001;Nieblas et al, 2014) that are not represented in our global model with a 1 • resolution.…”

Section: Assumptions and Limitationssupporting

confidence: 72%

Large Pelagic Fish Are Most Sensitive to Climate Change Despite Pelagification of Ocean Food Webs

et al. 2020

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Global climate change is expected to impact ocean ecosystems through increases in temperature, decreases in pH and oxygen, increased stratification, with subsequent declines in primary productivity. These impacts propagate through the food chain leading to amplified effects on secondary producers and higher trophic levels. Similarly, climate change may disproportionately affect different species, with impacts depending on their ecological niche. To investigate how global environmental change will alter fish assemblages and productivity, we used a spatially explicit mechanistic model of the three main fish functional types reflected in fisheries catches (FEISTY) coupled to an Earth system model (GFDL-ESM2M) to make projections out to 2100. We additionally explored the sensitivity of projections to uncertainties in widely used metabolic allometries and their temperature dependence. When integrated globally, the biomass and production of all types of fish decreased under a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) compared to mean contemporary conditions. Projections also revealed strong increases in the ratio of pelagic zooplankton production to benthic production, a dominant driver of the abundance of large pelagic fish vs. demersal fish under historical conditions. Increases in this ratio led to a “pelagification” of ecosystems exemplified by shifts from benthic-based food webs toward pelagic-based ones. The resulting pelagic systems, however, were dominated by forage fish, as large pelagic fish suffered from increasing metabolic demands in a warming ocean and from declines in zooplankton productivity that were amplified at higher trophic levels. Patterns of relative change between functional types were robust to uncertainty in metabolic allometries and temperature dependence, though projections of the large pelagic fish had the greatest uncertainty. The same accumulation of trophic impacts that underlies the amplification of productivity trends at higher trophic levels propagates to the projection spread, creating an acutely uncertain future for the ocean’s largest predatory fish.

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Section: Assumptions and Limitationssupporting

confidence: 72%

Large Pelagic Fish Are Most Sensitive to Climate Change Despite Pelagification of Ocean Food Webs

et al. 2020

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“…In cases where food is limited, optimal growth temperatures are typically cooler (Jobling, 1995). Indeed, where temperaturedependent growth has been investigated across species, average growth along temperature clines tends to be weaker than predicted by metabolic theory, largely due to local ecosystem dynamics (van Denderen et al, 2020). Thus it is likely that our projections will overestimate juvenile habitat suitability in some areas.…”

Section: Model Caveats and Assumptionsmentioning

confidence: 87%

“…Predicting how climate change may alter the abundance and distribution of marine species is an important application of species distribution models (SDMs). The approach is rapidly expanding in the field of marine ecology (Freer et al, 2017;Robinson et al, 2017;Melo-Merino et al, 2020) and is increasingly being used to guide adaptive fisheries management, marine conservation plans, impact assessments, and policy decisions (Freer et al, 2017;Tittensor et al, 2019;Bryndum-Buchholz et al, 2020a). Species distribution forecast models combine known biological-environmental relationships with downscaled oceanographic models to project species range shifts under one or more Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) of greenhouse gas concentration trajectories.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasted Shifts in Thermal Habitat for Cod Species in the Northwest Atlantic and Eastern Canadian Arctic

et al. 2021

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Climate change will alter ecosystems and impose hardships on marine resource users as fish assemblages redistribute to habitats that meet their physiological requirements. Marine gadids represent some of the most ecologically and socio-economically important species in the North Atlantic, but face an uncertain future in the wake of rising ocean temperatures. We applied CMIP5 ocean temperature projections to egg survival and juvenile growth models of three northwest Atlantic coastal species of gadids (Atlantic cod, Polar cod, and Greenland cod), each with different thermal affinities and life histories. We illustrate how physiologically based species distribution models (SDMs) can be used to predict habitat distribution shifts and compare vulnerabilities of species and life stages with changing ocean conditions. We also derived an integrated habitat suitability index from the combined surfaces of each metric to predict areas and periods where thermal conditions were suitable for both life stages. Suitable thermal habitat shifted poleward for the juvenile life stages of all three species, but the area remaining differed across species and life stages through time. Arctic specialists like Polar cod are predicted to experience reductions in suitable juvenile habitat based on metrics of egg survival and growth potential. In contrast, habitat loss in boreal and subarctic species like Atlantic cod and Greenland cod may be dampened due to increases in suitable egg survival habitats as suitable juvenile growth potential habitats decrease. These results emphasize the need for mechanistic SDMs that can account for the combined effects of changing seasonal thermal requirements under varying climate change scenarios.

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“…It is, however, typically found and assumed that standard metabolic rate and natural feeding levels are proportional to routine metabolic rate and maximum consumption rate, respectively, and thus exhibit the same mass-scaling relationships (Kitchell et al 1977;Neuenfeldt et al 2020). Intraspecific growth rates may not appear to be unimodally related to temperature when measured over a temperature gradient across populations within a species (Denderen et al 2020), because each population can be adapted to local climate conditions and thus display different temperature optima. However, each population likely has a thermal optimum for growth, which differs between individuals of different size.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimum growth temperature declines with body size within fish species

Lindmark

Ohlberger

Gårdmark

2021

Preprint

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According to the temperature-size rule, warming of aquatic ecosystems is generally predicted to increase individual growth rates but reduce asymptotic body sizes of ectotherms. However, we lack a comprehensive understanding of how growth and key processes affecting it, such as consumption and metabolism, depend on both temperature and body mass within species. This limits our ability to inform growth models, link experimental data to observed growth patterns, and advance mechanistic food web models. To examine the combined effects of body size and temperature on individual growth, as well as the link between maximum consumption, metabolism and body growth, we conducted a systematic review and compiled experimental data on fishes from 59 studies that combined body mass and temperature treatments. By fitting hierarchical models accounting for variation between species, we estimated how these three processes scale jointly with temperature and body mass within species. We found that whole-organism maximum consumption increases more slowly with body mass than metabolism, and is unimodal over the full temperature range, which leads to the prediction that optimum growth temperatures decline with body size. Using an independent dataset, we confirmed this negative relationship between optimum growth temperature and size within fish species. Small individuals may therefore exhibit increased growth with initial warming, whereas larger conspecifics could be the first to experience negative impacts of warming on growth. These findings help advance mechanistic models of individual growth and food web dynamics and improve our understanding of how climate warming affects the growth and size structure of aquatic ectotherms.Significance statementPredicting organism responses to a warming climate requires understanding how physiological processes such as feeding, metabolism, and growth depend on body size and temperature. Common growth models predict declining optimum growth temperatures with body size if energetic costs (metabolism) increase faster than gains (feeding) with body size. However, the generality of these features has not been evaluated at the within-species level. By collating data on fish through a systematic literature review, we find support for both declining net energy gain and declining optimum growth temperatures with body size. This implies large individuals within populations may be the first to suffer poor growth due to warming, with consequences for fisheries yield and food web structure in warmer climates.

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Global analysis of fish growth rates shows weaker responses to temperature than metabolic predictions

Cited by 52 publications

References 52 publications

Large Pelagic Fish Are Most Sensitive to Climate Change Despite Pelagification of Ocean Food Webs

Large Pelagic Fish Are Most Sensitive to Climate Change Despite Pelagification of Ocean Food Webs

Forecasted Shifts in Thermal Habitat for Cod Species in the Northwest Atlantic and Eastern Canadian Arctic

Optimum growth temperature declines with body size within fish species

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