Global and Regional Aspects for Genesis of Catastrophic Floods: The Problems of Forecasting and Estimation for Mass and Water Balance (Surface Water and Groundwater Contribution)

Abstract

Traditionally torrential rains are considered to be the main factor of flood emergence. But with some examples of disastrous floods in absolutely different parts of the world, the rough estimation of the water balance results in the necessity to suggest a correct alternative hypothesis. Our simplest model (taking into account precipitation, evaporation, and soil permeability) clearly points out the significant discrepancy in several events between potentially accumulated and observed water masses. This observation puts forward the idea that precipitation is necessary, but it is not often a sufficient factor for disastrous flood emergence and for the water flow budget. Thus, another available water source, i.e., groundwater, should not be ignored. We consider the reasons and conditions for such phenomena. In this chapter, we will focus only on the causes and forecast of dangerous dynamic phenomena in rock masses. Of particular interest here are water flows through various granite massifs and geological rocks of magmatic origin using nonlinear dynamics approaches.