Global and regional evolution of sea surface temperature under climate change

Ruela, Rui Filipe Oliveira; Sousa, Magda C.; deCastro, M.; Dias, João Miguel

doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2020.103190

Cited by 54 publications

(37 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…The exception is the BESM-OA2.5, where we see greater heating of STZ and SAZ. The patterns seen in the models are corroborated by the results demonstrated by Ruela et al (2020), which assess global long-term temperature differences between averages of 1979/2005 and 2070/2100 for a multimodel mean. This heating pattern is reflected in the linear trends analysis (Figure S4) and annual rate values (Table 2).…”

Section: Future Scenariossupporting

confidence: 64%

Evaluation of South Atlantic Thermohaline Properties from BESM-OA2.5 and Three Additional Global Climate Models

2021

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Important global oceanic processes, such as the meridional overturning circulation, are governed by the temperature and salinity of the ocean. As such, it is essential that these properties be correctly represented in high-quality global climate models. This study aims to evaluate thermohaline properties both historically and under two simulations of the Brazilian Earth System Model BESM-OA2.5 in the South Atlantic Ocean (Representation Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5). Since error assessment in the global climate model (GCM) is fundamental to infer climate change projections, comparisons were made for thermohaline properties among four GCMs (HadGEM2-ES, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, MIROC5, and BESM-OA2.5) against data from ocean monitoring programs and from ORAS5-ECMWF. The results show common surface spatial pattern errors in all models, commonly related to mesoscale processes. Specific to BESM-OA2.5 over the Southern Ocean, we observed an increase in the temperature bias during autumn and summer, probably due to subsurface temperature overestimation linked to North Antarctic Deep Water (NADW) formation. With respect to salinity, the underestimations in the Subtropical/Subantarctic Zones and in the north of the South Atlantic subtropical gyre were linked to simulation errors in the Malvinas current. All models presented overestimated annual historical temperature rates, with BESM-OA2.5 being the closest to ORAS5. In the subsurface, the BESM-OA2.5 did not easily simulate the South Atlantic Central Water (SACW) formation, though in deep water, the model was able to better simulate the Antarctic Intermediate Water and NADW patterns. Statistically, the multi-model means performed better, while the BESM-OA2.5 performed worst among the models in both methodologies applied. In terms of projected scenarios, the models demonstrated sensitivity to variations in greenhouse gas emissions between the RCPs, with higher magnitude warming predicted in the equatorial zone, except for BESM-OA2.5.

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Section: Future Scenariossupporting

confidence: 64%

Evaluation of South Atlantic Thermohaline Properties from BESM-OA2.5 and Three Additional Global Climate Models

2021

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“…Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is an independent dataset relative to SSH, but is also influenced by mesoscale activity and has better temporal and spatial resolution than SSH. SST has increased on multi-decadal timescales due to climate change 26,27 (Fig. 2a), with the global spatial pattern also modulated by interdecadal climate variability.…”

Section: Surface Ocean Accelerationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global changes in oceanic mesoscale currents over the satellite altimetry record

et al. 2021

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Oceanic eddies play a profound role in mixing tracers such as heat, carbon, and nutrients, thereby regulating regional and global climate. Yet, it remains unclear how global oceanic eddy kinetic energy has evolved over the past few decades. Furthermore, coupled climate model predictions generally fail to resolve oceanic mesoscale dynamics, which could limit their accuracy in simulating future climate change. Here we show a global statistically significant increase of the eddy activity using two independent observational datasets of mesoscale variability, one directly measuring currents and the other from sea surface temperature.Regions characterized by different dynamical processes show distinct evolution in the eddy field. For example, eddy-rich regions such as boundary current extensions and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current show a significant increase of 2% and 5% per decade in eddy activity, respectively. In contrast, most of the regions of observed decrease are found in the tropical oceans. Because eddies play a fundamental role in the ocean transport of heat, momentum, 1 and carbon, our results have far-reaching implications for ocean circulation and climate, and the modelling platforms we use to study future climate change.Changes in the climate system over recent decades have warmed the upper ocean and modified the wind stress, heat and freshwater fluxes that drive ocean circulation 1, 2 . These changes have the capacity to modify the ocean circulation at all scales, including the overturning circulation 3, 4 , basin-scale gyres 5,6 , boundary currents 7,8 , and the mesoscale 9 . The ocean's mesoscale incorporates motions that occur at spatial scales from ∼10 to ∼100 km. These motions include both steady flows, such as jets and re-circulations, and time-varying flows, generally referred to as eddies. Mesoscale eddies are ubiquitous in the global ocean and feed back onto all scales, from regional processes 10 up to the meridional overturning circulation 3 . Moreover, these eddies act to transport and mix tracers such as heat, salt, and nutrients 11,12 . Thus, understanding the evolution of the mesoscale circulation is crucial to better predict our changing oceans. Kinetic energy (KE) quantifies the magnitude of ocean currents 9,[13][14][15] . Kinetic energy is proportional to the square of the velocity, and is commonly separated into the mean KE (MKE; computed from the time-mean velocity field) and the KE of the time-varying velocity (known as the Eddy Kinetic Energy; EKE). The EKE is dominated by mesoscale variability and is a significant fraction of the total KE 16,17 . A recent study has inferred a global increase of KE anomaly from ocean reanalyses and ARGO floats 15 . However, these reanalyses and observations do not have the spatial resolution required to resolve the mesoscale field. Satellite observations, which can resolve the mesoscale, suggest that EKE in the Southern Ocean has a robust increasing trend 9,18,19 . How-

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“…Tropicalization and southernization phenomena are also evidenced by DNA barcoding analysis [40][41][42]. At present, many climate studies focus on forecasting models based on emission scenarios and on bioinvasions, and seek an answer to objective 13 of Agenda 2030 integrating diverse methodologies [43][44][45][46]. In Agenda 2030, there is a clear indication about the necessity to improve human, technical, and institutional capacities and infrastructure, and particularly in developing climate and water-related services.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Advances in Egyptian Mediterranean Coast Climate Change Monitoring

Gentilucci

Moustafa

Abdel‐Gawad

et al. 2021

Water

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This paper characterizes non-indigenous fish species (NIS) and analyses both atmospheric and sea surface temperatures for the Mediterranean coast of Egypt from 1991 to 2020, in relation to previous reports in the same areas. Taxonomical characterization depicts 47 NIS from the Suez Canal (Lessepsian/alien) and 5 from the Atlantic provenance. GenBank accession number of the NIS mitochondrial gene, cytochrome oxidase 1, reproductive and commercial biodata, and a schematic Inkscape drawing for the most harmful Lessepsian species were reported. For sea surface temperatures (SST), an increase of 1.2 °C to 1.6 °C was observed using GIS software. The lack of linear correlation between annual air temperature and annual SST at the same detection points (Pearson r) could suggest a difference in submarine currents, whereas the Pettitt homogeneity test highlights a temperature breakpoint in 2005–2006 that may have favoured the settlement of non-indigenous fauna in the coastal sites of Damiette, El Arish, El Hammam, Alexandria, El Alamain, and Mersa Matruh, while there seems to be a breakpoint present in 2001 for El Sallum. This assessment of climate trends is in good agreement with the previous sightings of non-native fish species. New insights into the assessment of Egyptian coastal climate change are discussed.

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Global and regional evolution of sea surface temperature under climate change

Cited by 54 publications

References 51 publications

Evaluation of South Atlantic Thermohaline Properties from BESM-OA2.5 and Three Additional Global Climate Models

Evaluation of South Atlantic Thermohaline Properties from BESM-OA2.5 and Three Additional Global Climate Models

Global changes in oceanic mesoscale currents over the satellite altimetry record

Advances in Egyptian Mediterranean Coast Climate Change Monitoring

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