Global and regional impacts differ between transient and equilibrium warmer worlds

King, Andrew D.; Lane, Todd P.; Henley, Benjamin J.; Brown, Josephine R.

doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0658-7

Cited by 79 publications

(66 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…12a,e). Such a land-ocean warming contrast between the transient and quasi-equilibrium simulations, resulting from the slow ocean warming, is also evident in ensemble comparisons of CMIP5 (King et al, 2020). As a result of the weaker ocean warming, and hence less moisture availability, less precipitation increase (or more decrease) is found broadly over the tropical and subtropical oceans for both the mean and extremes, in CESM-LE compared to CESM-LW ( Fig.…”

Section: Accepted Articlementioning

confidence: 74%

“…To understand the sensitivity to different modelling approaches, recent studies have compared regional climate responses to given temperature targets from ensemble projections between the CMIP5 and HAPPI protocols (Seneviratne et al, 2018b;Hoegh-Guldberg et al, 2018), and between CMIP5 transient and quasi-equilibrium simulations (King et al, 2020). While ensemble projections are generally comparable for temperature extremes between modelling protocols, differences are notable for precipitation extremes at regional scale (even in the sign of change) (Seneviratne et al 2018b;Hoegh-Guldberg et al, 2018).…”

Section: Accepted Articlementioning

confidence: 99%

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The Effect of Modeling Strategies on Assessments of Differential Warming Impacts of 0.5°C

Zhang

Zhou

2021

Earth's Future

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• Globally aggregated, the avoided impact of climate extremes by 0.5°C less warming is qualitatively consistent among modeling strategies • Regionally, model-setup dependency is large in northern high latitudes for hot/cold extremes, and scattered globally for wet/dry extremes • Different reginal responses among model setups are dominated by transient vs. quasiequilibrium responses, prescribed SSTs, and aerosols Accepted Article This article has been accepted for publication and undergone full peer review but has not been through the copyediting, typesetting, pagination and proofreading process, which may lead to differences between this version and the Version of Record. Please cite this article as

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Section: Accepted Articlementioning

confidence: 74%

Section: Accepted Articlementioning

confidence: 99%

The Effect of Modeling Strategies on Assessments of Differential Warming Impacts of 0.5°C

Zhang

Zhou

2021

Earth's Future

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“…In this context, it should be recognized that our analysis-which is based on transient climates following RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 trajectories over the 21st century-likely understates the long-term benefits of temperature stabilization. Compared to a stabilized global climate, the transient response of surface temperature to radiative forcing shows a spatial pattern with elevated warming over land and the Northern Hemisphere, whereas in a stabilized climate a 'recalcitrant' pattern emerges with more hemispheric symmetry and a more even land/ocean warming pattern [37,49,50]. It can thus be expected that, compared to a climate that has stabilized for many centuries, a transient warming state with the same GSAT imposes higher heat stress on the global population, which virtually all dwells on land.…”

Section: Population Exposure To Extreme Wbgt*mentioning

confidence: 99%

Escalating global exposure to compound heat-humidity extremes with warming

Yuan

Kopp

2020

Environ. Res. Lett.

131

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Heat stress harms human health, agriculture, the economy, and the environment more broadly. Exposure to heat stress is increasing with rising global temperatures. While most studies assessing future heat stress have focused on surface air temperature, compound extremes of heat and humidity are key drivers of heat stress. Here, we use atmospheric reanalysis data and a large initial-condition ensemble of global climate model simulations to evaluate future changes in daily compound heat-humidity extremes as a function of increasing global-mean surface air temperature (GSAT). The changing frequency of heat-humidity extremes, measured using wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT), is strongly related to GSAT and, conditional upon GSAT, nearly independent of forcing pathway. The historical~1 • C of GSAT increase above preindustrial levels has already increased the population annually exposed to at least one day with WBGT exceeding 33 • C (the reference safety value for humans at rest per the ISO-7243 standard) from 97 million to 275 million. Maintaining the current population distribution, this exposure is projected to increase to 508 million with 1.5 • C of warming, 789 million with 2.0 • C of warming, and 1.22 billion with 3.0 • C of warming (similar to late-century warming projected based on current mitigation policies).

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Section: Accepted Articlementioning

confidence: 96%

Does Dynamic Downscaling Modify the Projected Impacts of Stabilized 1.5°C and 2°C Warming on Hot Extremes Over China?

Qiu

et al. 2021

Geophysical Research Letters

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Impacts of stabilized 1.5 o C and 2 o C global warming on hot extremes over China are examined based on dynamic downscaling Dynamic downscaling can significantly modify the projection of hot extreme changes in response to the 1.5 o C and 2 o C warming The downscaling induced differences in hot extremes changes are mainly attributed to the modification of shortwave radiation changes Accepted Article This article has been accepted for publication and undergone full peer review but has not been through the copyediting, typesetting, pagination and proofreading process, which may lead to differences between this version and the Version of Record. Please cite this article as

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Global and regional impacts differ between transient and equilibrium warmer worlds

Cited by 79 publications

References 42 publications

The Effect of Modeling Strategies on Assessments of Differential Warming Impacts of 0.5°C

The Effect of Modeling Strategies on Assessments of Differential Warming Impacts of 0.5°C

Escalating global exposure to compound heat-humidity extremes with warming

Does Dynamic Downscaling Modify the Projected Impacts of Stabilized 1.5°C and 2°C Warming on Hot Extremes Over China?

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