Global and regional trends and age-period-cohort effects in polycystic ovary syndrome burden from 1990 to 2019, with predictions to 2040

Abstract

Objectives We aimed to analyze the secular trends of global and regional polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) burden, the effects of age, period, and birth cohort, and forecast the global burden over time.Material and methods Based on the incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) data of PCOS from the 2019 GBD database for the years 1990 to 2019, we used the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and the annual percentage change (APC) calculated using the joinpoint regression model to describe the burden trends. An age-period-cohort model was utilized to analyze the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on the PCOS age-standardized rate. The burden of PCOS was projected by conducting the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model.Results Globally, there were significant increases in age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) (EAPC = 0.85, 95%UI:0.82—0.87), age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) (EAPC = 0.84, 95%UI:0.80—0.88), and age-standardized YLD rate (EAPC = 0.82, 95%UI:0.78—0.87) of PCOS from1990-2019. Period RR and cohort RR showed an upward trend in global and most SDI regions, indicating an increased risk of PCOS for new generations. Meanwhile, the BAPC model predicts that the burden will continue to rise.Conclusions The global burden of PCOS increased over the past 30 years, with variability across different regions, and this trend will continue in the future.