Global atmospheric moisture transport associated with precipitation extremes: Mechanisms and climate change impacts

Liu, Bingjun; Tan, Xiaoheng; Gan, Thian Yew; Chen, Xiaohong; Lin, Kairong; Lu, Mengqian

doi:10.1002/wat2.1412

Cited by 76 publications

(42 citation statements)

References 241 publications

(380 reference statements)

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“…Although the focus on intense moisture transport and the use of IVT is very prominent in studies of extreme precipitation, investigations of the large-scale circulation processes that drive the moisture transport often remain more in the background and less understood. Few studies combined the use of PV and IVT and linked Rossby wave breaking to moist air incursions into the Arctic (Liu and Barnes, 2015), and to the formation and landfall of atmospheric rivers Magnusdottir, 2014, 2016;Hu et al, 2017;Zavadoff and Kirtman, 2020). Several extreme precipitation-related studies took Rossby wave breaking as a starting point and linked this process to enhanced moisture transport (Martius et al, 2006;Ryoo et al, 2013;Moore et al, 2019), whereas others took the perspective of moisture transport and identified some form of upper-level forcing in the shape of upper-level troughs and/or cutoffs upstream, suggesting the occurrence of Rossby wave breaking (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A global climatological perspective on the importance of Rossby wave breaking and intense moisture transport for extreme precipitation events

Vries

Jan²

2021

Weather Clim. Dynam.

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Abstract. Extreme precipitation events (EPEs) frequently cause flooding with dramatic socioeconomic impacts in many parts of the world. Previous studies considered two synoptic-scale processes, Rossby wave breaking and intense moisture transport, typically in isolation, and their linkage to such EPEs in several regions. This study presents for the first time a global and systematic climatological analysis of these two synoptic-scale processes, in tandem and in isolation, for the occurrence of EPEs. To this end, we use 40-year ERA-Interim reanalysis data (1979–2018) and apply object-based identification methods for (i) daily EPEs, (ii) stratospheric potential vorticity (PV) streamers as indicators of Rossby wave breaking, and (iii) structures of high vertically integrated horizontal water vapour transport (IVT). First, the importance of these two synoptic-scale processes is demonstrated by case studies of previously documented flood events that inflicted catastrophic impacts in different parts of the world. Next, a climatological quantification shows that Rossby wave breaking is associated with >90 % of EPEs over central North America and the Mediterranean, whereas intense moisture transport is linked to >95 % of EPEs over many coastal zones, consistent with findings of atmospheric river-related studies. Combined Rossby wave breaking and intense moisture transport contributes up to 70 % of EPEs in several subtropical and extratropical regions, including (semi)arid desert regions where tropical–extratropical interactions are of key importance for (heavy) rainfall. Odds ratios of EPEs linked to the two synoptic-scale processes suggest that intense moisture transport has a stronger association with the occurrence of EPEs than Rossby wave breaking. Furthermore, the relationship between the PV and IVT characteristics and the precipitation volumes shows that the depth of the wave breaking and moisture transport intensity are intimately connected with the extreme precipitation severity. Finally, composites reveal that subtropical and extratropical EPEs, linked to Rossby wave breaking, go along with the formation of upper-level troughs and cyclogenetic processes near the surface downstream, reduced static stability beneath the upper-level forcing (only over water), and dynamical lifting ahead (over water and land). This study concludes with a concept that reconciles well-established meteorological principles with the importance of Rossby wave breaking and intense moisture transport for the formation of EPEs. Another conclusion with major implications is that different combinations of Rossby wave breaking and intense moisture transport can reflect a large range of EPE-related weather systems across climate zones and can thus form the basis for a new classification of EPE regimes. The findings of this study may contribute to an improved understanding of the atmospheric processes that lead to EPEs and may find application in climatic studies on extreme precipitation changes in a warming climate.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A global climatological perspective on the importance of Rossby wave breaking and intense moisture transport for extreme precipitation events

Vries

Jan²

2021

Weather Clim. Dynam.

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“…al., 2015;Espinoza et al, 2018;Benedict et al, 2019;Hsu and Chen, 2020;Sousa et al, 2020). For extensive reviews on the link between intense moisture transport and EPEs, the reader is referred to Gimeno et al (2016) and Liu et al (2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A global climatological perspective on the importance of Rossby wave breaking and intense moisture transport for extreme precipitation events

Vries¹

2020

Preprint

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Abstract. Extreme precipitation events (EPEs) cause frequently flooding with dramatic socioeconomic impacts in many parts of the world. Previous studies considered two synoptic-scale processes, Rossby wave breaking and intense moisture transport, typically in isolation, and their linkage to such EPEs in several regions. This study presents for the first time a global and systematic climatological analysis of these two synoptic-scale processes, in tandem and in isolation, for the occurrence of EPEs. To this end, we use 40-year ERA-Interim reanalysis data (1979–2018) and apply object-based identification methods for (i) daily EPEs, (ii) stratospheric potential vorticity (PV) streamers as indicators of Rossby wave breaking, and (iii) structures of high vertically integrated horizontal water vapor transport (IVT). First, the importance of these two processes is demonstrated by case studies of previously documented flood events that inflicted catastrophic impacts in different parts of the world. Next, a climatological quantification shows that Rossby wave breaking is associated with > 90 % of EPEs near high topography and over the Mediterranean, intense moisture transport is linked to > 90 % of EPEs over many coastal zones, and their combined occurrence contributes to > 70 % of EPEs in several subtropical and extratropical regions. A more detailed analysis shows that a majority of EPEs associated with (1) only Rossby wave breaking are confined to higher-latitude regions that are deprived from remote moisture supplies by high topography and deserts, (2) only intense moisture transport are found circumglobally at the outer tropics, associated with tropical cyclones, tropical easterly waves, and monsoon lows, (3) combined Rossby wave breaking and intense moisture transport dominate a large part of the globe, in particular over dry subtropical regions where tropical-extratropical interactions are of key relevance, (4) remote, far upstream Rossby wave breaking and intense moisture transport occur over mountainous extratropical west coasts, reminiscent of landfalling atmospheric rivers, and (5) neither of the two synoptic-scale processes are concentrated over the inner tropics and high topography at lower latitudes, where EPEs arise under the influence of local forcing. Accordingly, different combinations of wave breaking and intense moisture transport can reflect a large range of weather systems with relevance to EPEs across various climate zones. Furthermore, the relationship between the PV and IVT characteristics and the precipitation volumes shows that the strength of the wave breaking and moisture transport intensity are intimately connected with the extreme precipitation severity. Finally, composites reveal that subtropical and extratropical EPEs, linked to Rossby wave breaking, go along with the formation of upper-level troughs and cyclogenetic processes near the surface downstream, reduced static stability beneath the upper-level forcing (only over water), and dynamical lifting ahead (over water and land). This study concludes with a concept that reconciles well-established meteorological principles with the importance of Rossby wave breaking and intense moisture transport for extreme precipitation events. The findings of this study may contribute to an improved understanding of the atmospheric processes that lead to EPEs, and may find application in climatic studies on extreme precipitation changes in a warming climate.

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“…There is a large body of literature which examines the relationship between large‐scale atmospheric circulations and regional precipitation patterns (e.g., Liu et al, 2020, and references therein). Wang and Chen (2009) showed that the Great Plains low‐level jet (GPLLJ) can be attributed to late‐spring extreme rainfall events over the central United States.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding the Spatial Organization of Simultaneous Heavy Precipitation Events Over the Conterminous United States

et al. 2020

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We introduce the idea of simultaneous heavy precipitation events (SHPEs) to understand whether extreme precipitation has a spatial organization manifested as specified tracks or contiguous fields with inherent scaling relationships. For this purpose, we created a database of SHPEs using ground-based precipitation observations recorded by the daily Global Historical Climatology Network across the conterminous United States during 1900-2014. SHPEs are examined for their seasonality, spatial manifestation, orientation, and areal extent. We quantified the spatial distribution of the centroids and principal axes of SHPEs and their quasi-elliptical manifestations, azimuthal orientations, and areal extents on the ground. Four seasons, December-January-February (DJF), March-April-May (MAM), June-July-August (JJA), and September-October-November (SON) are considered to examine the spatial patterns and associated large-scale atmospheric circulations.

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Global atmospheric moisture transport associated with precipitation extremes: Mechanisms and climate change impacts

Cited by 76 publications

References 241 publications

A global climatological perspective on the importance of Rossby wave breaking and intense moisture transport for extreme precipitation events

A global climatological perspective on the importance of Rossby wave breaking and intense moisture transport for extreme precipitation events

A global climatological perspective on the importance of Rossby wave breaking and intense moisture transport for extreme precipitation events

Understanding the Spatial Organization of Simultaneous Heavy Precipitation Events Over the Conterminous United States

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