Global burden and cross-country health inequalities of early-onset colorectal cancer and its risk factors from 1990 to 2021 and its projection until 2036

Abstract

Purpose To explore the worldwide, regional, and country-specific burden of early-onset colorectal cancer (EO-CRC) and identify its associated risk factors between 1990 and 2021, and to project its incidence and mortality rates for 2036. Methods We acquired data on EO-CRC categorized by gender, socio-demographic index (SDI), and risk factors based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021. Joinpoint regression analysis was utilized to explore the variation in disease burden. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was performed to forecast the disease burden up to 2036. Results Globally, the incidence rate, prevalence rate, mortality rate, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate of EO-CRC were estimated at 5.37 (95%UI: 4.91 to 5.86)/100,000, 34 (95%UI: 30.96 to 37.35)/100,000, 2.01 (95%UI: 1.84 to 2.19)/100,000, and 101.37 (95%: 92.85 to 110.18)/100,000 in 2021. The prevalence and incidence rates of EO-CRC showed an ascending trajectory, whilst the DALYs and mortality rates demonstrated a downward trajectory between 1990 to 2021. The high-middle SDI regions and East Asia exhibited the highest EO-CRC burden among the five SDI regions and 21 GBD regions respectively. A low-whole-grains diet was the chief risk factor contributing to EO-CRC. It was predicted that the age-standardized rate (ASR) of EO-CRC incidence would increase by 5.56%, while the ASR of mortality would decrease by 13.9% globally until 2036. Conclusion The current and future global burden of EO-CRC is heavy and varies significantly across different regions and countries. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-024-20624-4.