Global catastrophic and existential risks communication scale

Turchin, Alexey; Denkenberger, David

doi:10.1016/j.futures.2018.01.003

Cited by 35 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…If this argument is correct (Haussler, 2016), it would also apply to other civilizations and it appears reasonable to assume that population growth is intertwined with technological and philosophical progress. Indeed, the risk of catastrophic extinction has been estimated of order 0.2 % per year (Matheny, 2007; Simpson, 2016; Turchin and Denkenberger, 2018) at our current technological level and might be applicable to other civilizations within less than a few orders of magnitude (Gerig, 2012; Gerig et al ., 2013). The possession of ever more powerful technology in the hands of (many) individuals is increasingly dangerous (Cooper, 2013).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spaceflight from Super-Earths is difficult

Hippke

2018

International Journal of Astrobiology

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Many rocky exoplanets are heavier and larger than the Earth, and have higher surface gravity. This makes space-flight on these worlds very challenging, because the required fuel mass for a given payload is an exponential function of planetary surface gravity. We find that chemical rockets still allow for escape velocities on Super-Earths up to 10× Earth mass. More massive rocky worlds, if they exist, would require other means to leave the planet, such as nuclear propulsion.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spaceflight from Super-Earths is difficult

Hippke

2018

International Journal of Astrobiology

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“…AI could also be used to intentionally or inadvertently develop a pathogen with a 100% case‐fatality rate, paralyze humanity under a totalitarian regime, or send an annihilating command to a robot army. Some have argued that AI is the most salient existential risk (Turchin & Denkenberger, 2018b) with a probability orders of magnitude greater than natural risks or nuclear winter (Ord, 2020). It is surprising then to find that the UN Digital Library does not appear to reflect this.…”

Section: Existential Risks and International Governance: The Un Digitmentioning

confidence: 99%

Existential Risks to Humanity Should Concern International Policymakers and More Could Be Done in Considering Them at the International Governance Level

Boyd¹,

Wilson

2020

Risk Analysis

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In this perspective, we consider the possible role of the United Nations (UN) with respect to existential risks to human civilization and the survival of humanity. We illustrate how existential risks have been discussed at an international governance level, specifically in documents in the UN Digital Library. In this large corpus, discussions of nuclear war account for over two-thirds (69%, 67/97) of mentions of existential risks, while mention of other existential risks, or such risks as a category, appears scant. We take these observations to imply inadequate attention to these significant threats. These deficits, combined with the need for a global response to many risks, suggest that UN member nations should urgently advocate for appropriate action at the UN to address threats, such as artificial intelligence, synthetic biology, geoengineering, and supervolcanic eruption, in analogous fashion to existing attempts to mitigate the threats from nuclear war or near-Earth objects.

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“…Global warming is the immediate threat, together with its subthemes of sea-level rise, pestilence, famine and conflict. Yet there are many other ways our civilization could fail, from declining fertility rates to pandemics to replacement of humans by AI to simple urban decay (Baum, 2015; Avin et al ., 2018; Turchin and Denkenberger, 2018). While these threats individually might not be so severe as to cause human extinction, collectively they might conceivably do so (Kareiva and Carranza, 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Android Noahs and embryo Arks: ectogenesis in global catastrophe survival and space colonization

Edwards

2021

International Journal of Astrobiology

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To ensure long-term survival of humans and Earth life generally, strategies need to be in place to recolonize Earth after global catastrophes and to colonize exoplanets. In one strategy of space colonization, the physical barriers erected by time and space are circumvented by sending cryopreserved human and animal embryos to exoplanets rather than adult crews. There the embryos would be developed to neonates in artificial uterus (AU) systems. A similar strategy could also be used to repopulate Earth after human extinction events. In this paper, we review the status and future prospects of these embryonic survival strategies. A critical requirement in each scenario is an AU system for complete ectogenesis, i.e. complete development of embryos to neonates outside the natural womb. While such systems do not yet exist, they may soon be developed to afford clinical assistance to infertile women and reproductive choices to prospective parents. In human survival schemes, AU systems would likely first be used to extend conventional survival missions (e.g. subterranean bunkers) by replacing some adult crew members with cryopreserved embryos. For major mass extinctions and all far future events, adult crews would be entirely replaced by embryos and androids. The most advanced missions would feature orbiting embryo spacecraft for Earth recolonization and analogous interstellar spacecraft for colonizing exoplanets. We conclude that an advanced civilization using such an integrated, embryonic approach could eventually colonize distant parts of its home galaxy and potentially the wider universe.

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Global catastrophic and existential risks communication scale

Cited by 35 publications

References 31 publications

Spaceflight from Super-Earths is difficult

Spaceflight from Super-Earths is difficult

Existential Risks to Humanity Should Concern International Policymakers and More Could Be Done in Considering Them at the International Governance Level

Android Noahs and embryo Arks: ectogenesis in global catastrophe survival and space colonization

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