Global connectivity and cross-scale interactions create uncertainty for Blue Growth of Arctic fisheries

Abstract

A B S T R A C TThe Arctic faces high expectations of Blue Growth due to future projections of easier access and increased biological productivity. These expectations are, however, often based on global and regional climate change projections and largely ignore the complexity of social-ecological interactions taking place across different temporal and spatial scales. This paper illustrates how such cross-scale interactions at, and across, different dimensions (e.g., ecological, socioeconomic and governance) can affect the development of Arctic fisheries; and potentially create uncertainties for future Blue Growth projections. Two Arctic marine systems, The Barents Sea and the Central Arctic Ocean (CAO), are used as focus areas. The former hosts productive fisheries and is mostly covered by the EEZs of Norway and Russia, while the latter is still mainly covered by sea-ice and is a high seas area with no multilevel governance system in place. The examples show that, both systems are affected by a number of processes, beyond the environmental change, spanning a wide range of dimensions, as well as spatial and temporal scales. To address the complexity of the Arctic marine systems calls for an increase in holistic scientific understanding together with adaptive management practices. This is particularly important in the CAO, where no robust regional management structures are in place. Recognizing how cross-scale dynamics can cause uncertainties to the current fisheries projections and implementing well-functioning adaptive management structures across different Arctic sub-systems can play a key role in whether the Blue Growth potential in Arctic fisheries is realized or lost.

Cruising the marginal ice zone: climate change and Arctic tourism

“…The fishing industry will also avoid a presence in the MIZ (Niiranen et al, 2018), as well as oil and gas activities generally benefiting from operating in open waters (Harsem, Eide, & Heen, 2011). Therefore, the MIZ can be said to serve as an area of strategic significance economically.…”

How vulnerable is the European seafood production to climate warming?

“…If the fast-paced warming observed in the northeast Atlantic continues and some herring stocks retreat further north, they may not be exploitable even by the most northern countries of Europe (Rose, 2005). The seafood production volume in the Nordic countries, although presently benefiting from cooler temperatures, is likely to be more vulnerable to warming than countries in the south, due to stocks northwards displacement and socio-economic challenges (Niiranen et al, 2017). Southern countries, although losing the "cold water species", mainly rely on "warm water" species and therefore may be more resilient to warming (Figs.…”

“…Increasing temperature is leading to a general poleward shift of species changing the fishing opportunities and the composition, abundance, and availability of fished species (ICES, 2016). However, redistribution of stocks may create new opportunities if countries are able to adapt to changes and if well-functioning management plans are in place (Lam et al, 2014;Niiranen et al, 2017). This implies societal and economic adaptations as well as new governance, ensuring sound management of the new resource to ensure sustainable exploitation.…”

Cross-scale cooperation enables sustainable use of a common-pool resource

“…Such 1 Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Kräftriket 2B, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden * a.k.ringsmuth@gmail.com 2 Fenner School of Environment & Society, The Australian National University, Building 141, Linnaeus Way, Canberra, ACT, 2601, Australia sensitive dependence between processes at different scales, which generates behaviour unpredictable from behaviour at single scales, is known as a cross-scale interaction (CSI) [13]. Many researchers have qualitatively described CSIs in SESs, conceptually [7], [10], [12], [14]- [18] and in specific case studies (recently, [2], [19]- [22]). CSIs have been statistically quantified in different systems, from data at multiple scales.…”