Global crop yield reductions due to surface ozone exposure: 2. Year 2030 potential crop production losses and economic damage under two scenarios of O3 pollution

Avnery, Shiri; Mauzerall, Denise L.; Liu, Junfeng; Horowitz, Larry W.

doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2011.01.002

Cited by 324 publications

(194 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…Ozone precursor emissions are significant for both crops. No previous studies have examined the statistical historical relationship between ozone precursor emissions and crop yields, but several studies have used chemical transport models to simulate atmospheric ozone concentrations, and have then applied concentration-response relationships derived from field experiments to estimate crop loss caused by ozone exposure (19)(20)(21)(22) State-by-State Variation. There is substantial variation in relative impacts of climate and SLCPs across states.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These dose-response relationships have been used to estimate global and regional crop loss in individual years, as well as into the future under different emissions scenarios (11,(19)(20)(21)(22)(23)(24). These studies show large ozone impacts: one estimated that global crop loss caused by surface ozone in the year 2000 reached over 79 million metric tons ($11 billion) (21).…”

Section: Significancementioning

confidence: 99%

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Recent climate and air pollution impacts on Indian agriculture

Burney

Ramanathan

2014

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

267

152

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Recent research on the agricultural impacts of climate change has primarily focused on the roles of temperature and precipitation. These studies show that India has already been negatively affected by recent climate trends. However, anthropogenic climate changes are a result of both global emissions of long-lived greenhouse gases (LLGHGs) and other short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs). Two potent SLCPs, tropospheric ozone and black carbon, have direct effects on crop yields beyond their indirect effects through climate; emissions of black carbon and ozone precursors have risen dramatically in India over the past three decades. Here, to our knowledge for the first time, we present results of the combined effects of climate change and the direct effects of SLCPs on wheat and rice yields in India from 1980 to 2010. Our statistical model suggests that, averaged over India, yields in 2010 were up to 36% lower for wheat than they otherwise would have been, absent climate and pollutant emissions trends, with some densely populated states experiencing 50% relative yield losses. [Our point estimates for rice (−20%) are similarly large, but not statistically significant.] Upper-bound estimates suggest that an overwhelming fraction (90%) of these losses is due to the direct effects of SLCPs. Gains from addressing regional air pollution could thus counter expected future yield losses resulting from direct climate change effects of LLGHGs.climate impacts | ozone | aerosols | agriculture | India

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Significancementioning

confidence: 99%

Recent climate and air pollution impacts on Indian agriculture

Burney

Ramanathan

2014

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

267

152

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In the range of the scenarios used ozone changes either exacerbate or offset a substantial part of the climate impacts. The authors note that, given the competing sensitivities to heat or ozone, it is possible to measure the relative benefits for climate adaptation versus air pollution regulation for food security (see also Avnery et al, 2011b). It is of further concern that new evidence suggests that ozone can reduce the sensitivity of plants to drought by interfering with stomatal control mechanisms (Wilkinson and Davies, 2010;Wagg et al, 2012), thereby exacerbating effects of extreme weather events.…”

Section: Ecosystemsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tropospheric ozone and its precursors from the urban to the global scale from air quality to short-lived climate forcer

et al. 2015

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Abstract. Ozone holds a certain fascination in atmospheric science. It is ubiquitous in the atmosphere, central to tropospheric oxidation chemistry, yet harmful to human and ecosystem health as well as being an important greenhouse gas. It is not emitted into the atmosphere but is a byproduct of the very oxidation chemistry it largely initiates. Much effort is focused on the reduction of surface levels of ozone owing to its health and vegetation impacts, but recent efforts to achieve reductions in exposure at a country scale have proved difficult to achieve owing to increases in background ozone at the zonal hemispheric scale. There is also a growing realisation that the role of ozone as a short-lived climate pollutant could be important in integrated air quality climate change mitigation. This review examines current understanding of the processes regulating tropospheric ozone at global to local scales from both measurements and models. It takes the view that knowledge across the scales is important for dealing with air quality and climate change in a synergistic manner. The review shows that there remain a number of clear challenges for ozone such as explaining surface trends, incorporating new chemical understanding, ozone-climate coupling, and a better assessment of impacts. There is a clear and present need to treat ozone across the range of scales, a transboundary issue, but with an emphasis on the hemispheric scales. New observational opportunities are offered both by satellites and small sensors that bridge the scales.

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“…For agroecosystems, current levels of O 3 concentration are sufficiently high to reduce yields of crops such as rice, soybean, wheat, potato, and maize, which is a priority issue for food security, and on economic loss of around $11-$18 billion annually (Ashmore, 2005;Ashmore et al, 2006;Avnery et al, 2011a). Due to the increase in ozone concentration and its deleterious effect on plants, Avnery et al (2011b) predict a decrease in world crop yield about 10.6-15.6 % for wheat, 4.5-6.3 % for maize and 12.1-16.4 % for soybean by 2030, with economical losses about $12-$35 billions annually. Finally, recent modelling studies predict a decrease in terrestrial ecosystem CO 2 absorption due to O 3 , which would then affect the atmospheric greenhouse gas budget and enhance global warming (Felzer et al, 2007;Sitch et al, 2007).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting and partitioning ozone fluxes to maize crops from sowing to harvest: the Surfatm-O<sub>3</sub> model

et al. 2011

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Abstract. Terrestrial ecosystems represent a major sink for ozone (O 3 ) and also a critical control of tropospheric O 3 budget. However, due to its deleterious effects, plant functioning is affected by the ozone absorbed. It is thus necessary to both predict total ozone deposition to ecosystems and partition the fluxes in stomatal and non-stomatal pathways. The Surfatm-O 3 model was developed to predict ozone deposition to agroecosystems from sowing to harvest, taking into account each deposition pathways during bare soil, growth, maturity, and senescence periods. An additional sink was added during senescence: stomatal deposition for yellow leaves, not able to photosynthesise but transpiring. The model was confronted to measurements performed over three maize crops in different regions of France. Modelled and measured fluxes agreed well for one dataset for any phenological stage, with only 4 % difference over the whole cropping season. A larger discrepancy was found for the two other sites, 15 % and 18 % over the entire study period, especially during bare soil, early growth and senescence. This was attributed to site-specific soil resistance to ozone and possible chemical reactions between ozone and volatile organic compounds emitted during late senescence. Considering both night-time and daytime conditions, non-stomatal deposition was the major ozone sink, from 100 % during bare soil period to 70-80 % on average during maturity. However, considering only daytime conditions, especially under optimal climatic conditions for plant functioning, stomatal flux could represent 75 % of total ozone flux. This model could improve estimates of crop yield losses and projections of tropospheric ozone budget.

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Global crop yield reductions due to surface ozone exposure: 2. Year 2030 potential crop production losses and economic damage under two scenarios of O3 pollution

Cited by 324 publications

References 45 publications

Recent climate and air pollution impacts on Indian agriculture

Recent climate and air pollution impacts on Indian agriculture

Tropospheric ozone and its precursors from the urban to the global scale from air quality to short-lived climate forcer

Predicting and partitioning ozone fluxes to maize crops from sowing to harvest: the Surfatm-O<sub>3</sub> model

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Global crop yield reductions due to surface ozone exposure: 2. Year 2030 potential crop production losses and economic damage under two scenarios of O3 pollution

Cited by 324 publications

References 45 publications

Recent climate and air pollution impacts on Indian agriculture

Recent climate and air pollution impacts on Indian agriculture

Tropospheric ozone and its precursors from the urban to the global scale from air quality to short-lived climate forcer

Predicting and partitioning ozone fluxes to maize crops from sowing to harvest: the Surfatm-O&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt; model

Contact Info

Product

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About

Predicting and partitioning ozone fluxes to maize crops from sowing to harvest: the Surfatm-O<sub>3</sub> model