Purpose
The aim of this study is to examine the trend over time of the demand for .it domain names.This study first assesses whether there is a phase of growth and expansion or at a point of saturation. Second, this research can be useful also to compare researches that have considered other internet metrics and other models.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper describes the forecasting methods used to analyze the internet diffusion in Italy. The domain names under the country code top-level domain “.it” have used as metrics. To predict domain names .it the seasonal auto regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and the Holt-Winters (H-W) methods have been used.
Findings
The results show that, to predict domain names .it the SARIMA model is better than the H-W methods. According to the findings, notwithstanding the forecast of a growth in domain names, the increase is however limited (about 3%), tending to reach a phase of saturation of the market of domain names .it.
Originality/value
In general many authors have studied internet diffusion applying statistical models that follow an S-shaped behavior. On the other hand, the more used diffusion models that follow an S-shape not always provide an adequate description of the Internet growth pattern. To achieve this goal, this paper demonstrates how the time series models, in particular SARIMA model and H-W models, fit well in explaining the spread of the internet.