Global diffusion of XL-capacity seawater desalination

Abstract

In the wake of rapid population growth coupled with climate change and environmental degradation, countries around the world face increasing uncertainty in their ability to provide ample, safe and sustainable potable water. To meet this uncertainty, seawater desalination has been advanced around the world as a reliable new supply that improves water quality, aquifer restoration, water security and is essentially insensitive to climate change. Not only are the number of facilities increasing, but the size of the facilities is also increasing in order to take advantage of economies of scale. This paper analyzes the emerging trend of extra-large-capacity (XL) seawater desalination facilities by examining the rate of their global diffusion and the variables that influence this rate. These variables are explored quantitatively using logistic regression. In addition, selected country case studies provide insight into the factors that drive the adoption of XL desalination. They indicate that the decision to embark on XL desalination is largely determined by internal political factors. Specifically, XL desalination is advanced when the political costs of alternative water management strategies are high.

To desalinate or divert? A comparative supply cost analysis for north coastal China

“…The desalination industry is seeing unprecedented growth and diffusion around the world as countries struggle to address increasing water stress. The question of the potential of desalination worldwide is to a great extent a function of its adoption in China and India (Feitelson & Jones, 2014). This essentially boils down to the question of whether desalination can substitute for freshwater resources in these two countries.…”

“…Water and energy have always been intimately linked, as the production and conveyance of water usually require significant energy and energy production often requires significant quantities of water, creating the 'water-energy nexus' (Feitelson & Jones, 2014). As the majority of large-scale desalination plants are fossil-fuel driven, opponents of large-scale desalination point out that it actually shifts forms of environmental impacts and natural resource problems from water scarcity to nonrenewable energy (Downward & Taylor, 2007).…”

“…Demand management, and particularly full-cost pricing, is often viewed as politically difficult. Hence, desalination may be viewed as a way to circumvent politically difficult fullcost pricing, as it has served in other parts of the world to circumvent politically sensitive alternatives (Feitelson & Jones, 2014). But in China's case, due to the underpricing of water, this implies that desalinated water will have to be subsidized.…”

“…This suggests that the steep part of the S-shaped innovation adoption curve is still ahead of us in the desalination field (Feitelson & Jones, 2014). Still, other ancillary policy steps should be called for to alleviate the water shortage in North China.…”

“…Seawater desalination has increasingly been viewed as a basic solution to alleviate the increasing gap between water demand and supply, especially in water-scarce areas (Feitelson & Jones, 2014). Worldwide desalination capacity has increased rapidly, from 8000 m 3 /day in 1970 to about 77.4 million m 3 /day in 2012, with over 16,000 industrial-scale desalination plants on line (IDA, 2012).…”