Global distribution of contrail radiative forcing

Minnis, Patrick; Schumann, U.; Doelling, David R.; Gierens, Klaus; Fahey, D. W.

doi:10.1029/1999gl900358

Cited by 122 publications

(127 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…In other words, they are presumed to cause a net warming as absorbed and reflected infrared radiation from the ground and lower troposphere outweighs the effect of more sunlight being reflected to space (e.g. Meerkötter et al, 1998;Minnis et al, 1999;Myhre and Stordal, 2001). Contrails form when hot and moist exhaust mixes with cold, drier ambient air; this increases the relative humidity (RH) and can lead to water saturation if the ambient air is below a critical temperature T c .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of the use of radiosonde humidity data to predict the occurrence of persistent contrails

Rädel

Shine

2007

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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Regular visual observations of persistent contrails over Reading, UK, have been used to evaluate radiosonde measurements of temperature and humidity defining cold ice-supersaturated atmospheric regions which are assumed to be a necessary condition for persistent condensation trails (contrails) to form. Results show a good correlation between observations and predictions using data from Larkhill, 63 km from Reading. A statistical analysis of this result and the forecasts using data from four additional UK radiosonde stations are presented. The horizontal extent of supersaturated layers could be inferred from this to be several hundred kilometres. The necessity of bias corrections to radiosonde humidity measurements is discussed and an analysis of measured ice-supersaturated atmospheric layers in the troposphere is presented. It is found that ice supersaturation is more likely to occur in winter than in summer, with frequencies of 17.3% and 9.4%, respectively, which is mostly due to the layers being thicker in winter than in summer. The most probable height for them to occur is about 10 km.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of the use of radiosonde humidity data to predict the occurrence of persistent contrails

Rädel

Shine

2007

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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“…As in the case of thin layers of cirrus clouds, contrails usually produce a small heating at the top of the atmosphere and there are numerous studies on regional and global estimates of contrail radiative forcing (e.g. Meerkoetter et al, 1999;Minnis et al, 1999;Marquart and Mayer 2002;Meyer et al, 2002;Ponater et al, 2002). The most recent IPCC report (IPCC, 2001) adopted the best estimate of 20 mW/m 2 for RF from contrails, which can range between 5 to 60 mW/m 2 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evidence of impact of aviation on cirrus cloud formation

Zerefos

Eleftheratos²,

Balis³

et al. 2003

Atmos. Chem. Phys.

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Abstract. This work examines changes in cirrus cloud cover (CCC) in possible association with aviation activities at congested air corridors. The analysis is based on the latest version of the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project D2 data set and covers the period 1984-1998. Over the studied areas, the effect of large-scale modes of natural climate variability such as ENSO, QBO and NAO as well as the possible influence of the tropopause variability, were first removed from the cloud data set in order to calculate long-term changes of observed cirrus cloudiness. The results show increasing trends in (CCC) between 1984 and 1998 over the high air traffic corridors of North America, North Atlantic and Europe. Of these upward trends, only in the summertime over the North Atlantic and only in the wintertime over North America are statistically significant (exceeding +2.0% per decade). Over adjacent locations with low air traffic, the calculated trends are statistically insignificant and in most cases negative both during winter and summer in the regions studied. These negative trends, over low air traffic regions, are consistent with the observed large scale negative trends seen in (CCC) over most of the northern middle latitudes and over the tropics. Moreover, further investigation of vertical velocities over high and low air traffic regions provide evidence that the trends of opposite signs in (CCC) over these regions, do not seem to be caused by different trends in dynamics. It is also shown that the longitudinal distribution of decadal changes in (CCC) along the latitude belt centered at the North Atlantic air corridor, parallels the spatial distribution of fuel consumption from highflying air traffic, providing an independent test of possible impact of aviation on contrail cirrus formation. The correlation between the fuel consumption and the longitudinal variability of (CCC) is significant (+0.7) over the middle latitudes but not over the tropics. This could be explained by the fact that over the tropics Correspondence to: C. S. Zerefos (zerefos@geol.uoa.gr) the variability of (CCC) is dominated by dynamics while at middle latitudes microphysics explain most of its variability. Results from this study are compared with other studies and for different periods of records and it appears that there exists general agreement as to the evidence of a possible aviation effect on high cloud positive trends over regions with congested air traffic.

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“…GCM experiments to assess the relative contributions globally of contrails and aircraft water vapor emissions (Ponater et al, 1996;Rind et al, 1996) suggest that radiative forcing from contrails far exceeds that due to the additional water vapor for current air traffic densities, and also as predicted for the near future (e.g. Sausen et al, 1998;Penner et al, 1999;Gierens et al, 1999;Minnis et al, 1999;Marquart et al, 2003). Accordingly, contrails are considered the dominant contributor to radiative forcing from aircraft emissions (Penner et al, 1999;Pielke, 2003).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The strong growth in commercial aviation during the past 30 years has led to speculation about its potential effects on regional-scale climate via increased jet contrail coverage (Changnon, 1981;Sassen, 1997;Meerkotter et al, 1999;Minnis et al, 1999;Duda et al, 2001;Travis et al, 2002Travis et al, , 2003, as well as changes in the aerosol load and gaseous composition of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (e.g. Schulte et al, 1997;Brasseur et al, 1998).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

US jet contrail frequency changes: influences of jet aircraft flight activity and atmospheric conditions

Travis

Carleton

Johnson

et al. 2006

Intl Journal of Climatology

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In the United States, the dramatic increase in jet fuel usage and kilometers flown has led to speculation of a similar increase in jet contrails. However, contrail occurrence depends heavily upon the meteorological conditions near cruising altitudes (i.e. the tropopause, 10–12 km altitude). This study reports a contrail mid‐season contemporary climatology for the coterminous United States (2000–2002), and compares the frequencies with those previously reported for an earlier (1977–1979) period, to determine spatial and seasonal contrail frequency changes. For both climatologies, contrail occurrence is derived from the analysis of high‐resolution satellite imagery. Data on US jet aircraft flight activity were obtained to assess their relationship to contrail frequency, as were NCEP‐NCAR reanalysis data to determine the changes in tropopause‐level atmospheric conditions.For the 2000–2002 period, contrails comprise a distinct high (low) frequency pattern in the East (West) halves of the United States. Seasonally, there is a contrail association with the latitudinal migration of the jet stream and a US‐wide peak contrail frequency during winter (January). The inter‐monthly variations in contrail frequency are significantly different from each other but show no association with variations in jet flight activity, indicating a greater role for meteorological conditions. Between the 1977–1979 and 2000–2002 periods, there were strong spatial and seasonal asymmetries to the contrail frequency change. These involve a cooling (warming) of the tropopause for the largest (smallest) frequency increases, which shows some association with the switch in positive and negative phases of the Arctic Oscillation. The role of upper tropospheric conditions and links to hemispheric‐scale teleconnections should be considered when projecting contrail frequency changes and their future impacts on climate. Copyright © 2006 Royal Meteorological Society

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Global distribution of contrail radiative forcing

Abstract: In this paper, we use the currently available estimates of present and future contrail coverage and contrail radiative properties to provide the first estimate of the global distribution of contrail-induced radiative forcing.

Cited by 122 publications

References 21 publications

Evaluation of the use of radiosonde humidity data to predict the occurrence of persistent contrails

Evaluation of the use of radiosonde humidity data to predict the occurrence of persistent contrails

Evidence of impact of aviation on cirrus cloud formation

US jet contrail frequency changes: influences of jet aircraft flight activity and atmospheric conditions

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