Global Dynamics of a Discrete-Time MERS-Cov Model

DarAssi, Mahmoud H.; Safi, Mohammad A.; Ahmad, Morad

doi:10.3390/math9050563

Cited by 5 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 30 publications

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“…The use of mathematical models to describe the transmission and spread of COVID-19, so as to gain insights into the disease behaviour and develop strategies for its curtailment, has been extensively studied by researchers. (see in [5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18] and the references cited therein.) Our model has a unique difference from the models developed in [10,18] as follows: the authors of [18] developed a mathematical model of COVID-19 to investigate the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions for possible control of the disease.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Qualitative and Quantitative Analyses of COVID-19 Dynamics

Faniran

Nkamba

Manga

2021

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COVID-19 is a highly contagious disease which has spread across the world. A deterministic model that considers an important component of individuals with vertically transmitted underlying diseases (high-risk susceptible individuals), rather than the general public, is formulated in this paper. We also consider key parameters that are concerned with the disease. An epidemiological threshold, R0, is computed using next-generation matrix approach. This is used to establish the existence and global stability of equilibria. We identify the most sensitive parameters which effectively contribute to change the disease dynamics with the help of sensitivity analysis. Our results reveal that increasing contact tracing of the exposed individuals who are tested for COVID-19 and hospitalizing them, largely has a negative impact on R0. Results further reveal that transmission rate between low-risk/high-risk susceptible individuals and symptomatic infectious individuals β and incubation rate of the exposed individuals σ have positive impact on R0. Numerical simulations show that there are fewer high-risk susceptible individuals than the general public when R0<1. This may be due to the fact that high-risk susceptible individuals may prove a bit more difficult to control than the low-risk susceptible individuals as a result of inherited underlying diseases present in them. We thus conclude that high level of tracing and hospitalizing the exposed individuals, as well as adherence to standard precautions and wearing appropriate Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) while handling emergency cases, are needed to flatten the epidemic curve.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Qualitative and Quantitative Analyses of COVID-19 Dynamics

Faniran

Nkamba

Manga

2021

Axioms

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A mathematical study of the omicron variant in a discrete-time Covid-19 model

2023

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THRESHOLD DYNAMICS AND BIFURCATION ANALYSIS OF THE EPIDEMIC MODEL OF MERS-CoV

ALQAHTANI,

BADSHAH,

RAHMAN

et al. 2023

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A viral respiratory disease, MERS spread by a novel coronavirus, was first detected in Saudi Arabia in 2012. It is a big threat for the Arab community and is a horrible prediction that the disease may rapidly propagate to other parts of the world. In this research endeavor, a mathematical model of MERS-Corona virus (MERS-CoV) is presented. Initially, we formulate a model, governing the dynamics of MERS-CoV disease and then determine basic reproductive number [Formula: see text]. Local stability analysis results are formulated at the equilibrium points. It has been found that one of the eigenvalues is zero, therefore bifurcation exists. Afterward, in formulating proper Lyapunov functional [J. P. LaSalle, The Stability of Dynamical Systems, Vol. 25 (Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, 1976)], we successfully established results about global stability of the proposed model at both equilibrium points. Sensitivity analysis of the parameters as well as of threshold value for the underlying model has been exhibited. The numerical illustration of theoretical findings is explained via examples.

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Global Dynamics of a Discrete-Time MERS-Cov Model

Cited by 5 publications

References 30 publications

Qualitative and Quantitative Analyses of COVID-19 Dynamics

Qualitative and Quantitative Analyses of COVID-19 Dynamics

A mathematical study of the omicron variant in a discrete-time Covid-19 model

THRESHOLD DYNAMICS AND BIFURCATION ANALYSIS OF THE EPIDEMIC MODEL OF MERS-CoV

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