Global economic activity indexes revisited

Funashima, Yoshito

doi:10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109269

Cited by 25 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…His empirical findings are contradicted by studies such as Ravazzolo and Vespignani (2019), however, who work with balanced regressions. Similarly, Funashima (2020) recently confirmed that the Kilian index is a leading indicator for world industrial production, but industrial production is not a leading indicator for the Kilian index, exactly as hypothesized by Kilian and Zhou (2018). This result is robust to whether the raw data are expressed in growth rates or deviations from a log-linear trend, as long as the regression is balanced.…”

Section: The Kilian Index Is a Leading Indicator For World Industrialmentioning

confidence: 72%

Facts and Fiction in Oil Market Modeling

Kilian¹

2020

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Section: The Kilian Index Is a Leading Indicator For World Industrialmentioning

confidence: 72%

Facts and Fiction in Oil Market Modeling

Kilian¹

2020

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“…Finally, apart from its obvious on investments ata large, it also believed to be on of the main causes of the boom-bubble-bust cycle according to Duru (2013). An overview, along with more details on the breakdown between intentional and unintentional herding can also be found in Gemayel and Preda (2018).…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

How Long Do We Keep Up With the Joneses? Herding Time Horizons in the Dry Bulk Shipping Markets

Michail

Melas

2020

SSRN Journal

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We estimate intentional and unintentional herding in the dry-bulk, ocean-going segment that spans from August 1998 to January 2020 and measure how this can impact vessel orders. As the results suggest, while intentional herding has a large effect on the orders of the newbuilding vessels, the impact is very shortlived. On the contrary, unintentional herding, related to common environmental factors, has a smoother but more time persistent effect on the newbuilding vessels. The findings suggest that the key players in the market do not only affect the dry-bulk market with their decisions but also the logistics trade and ultimately the world economy. Thus, the inclusion of the dry bulk key shipowners by the policymakers in the discussions before reaching an important decision could minimise the volatility of the overall sector.

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“…Seaborne trade accounts for more than the 80% of goods transported globally (UNC-TAD 2019), thus its importance it is not solely entrenched in the maritime economics field. Various studies have already shown that the shipping industry has an indicative leading role both in world economy (Kilian 2009;Kilian and Zhou 2018;Hamilton 2019;Funashima 2020) as well as in the international stock markets (Kilian and Park 2009). Thus, the forces that are affecting the industry are of interest not only to shipping investors per se, but also to the wider economy.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%