Global energy sector emission reductions and bioenergy use: overview of the bioenergy demand phase of the EMF-33 model comparison

Bauer, Nico; Rose, Steven K.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Vuuren, Detlef P. van; Weyant, John P.; Wise, Marshall; Cui, Ryna; Daioglou, Vassilis; Gidden, Matthew; Kato, Etsushi; Kitous, Alban; Leblanc, Florian; Sands, Ronald D.; Sano, Fuminori; Strefler, Jessica; Tsutsui, Junichi; Bibas, Ruben; Fricko, Oliver; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Klein, David; Kurosawa, Atsushi; Mima, Silvana; Muratori, Matteo

doi:10.1007/s10584-018-2226-y

Cited by 141 publications

(207 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…This compares to 51 EJ, or 10% of primary energy supply, in 2015 . This result is consistent, even when adopting pessimistic assumptions on biomass availability and the development of advanced technologies such as 2 nd generation biofuels of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) …”

Section: The Anticipated Role Of Bioenergy In the 21st Centurysupporting

confidence: 58%

“…While few models project production of biogas or bio‐hydrogen, there is no consistent pattern concerning the adoption of bio‐based electricity, gases, liquids or solids, see Fig. . Recent analysis has highlighted that the reason for this is due to differences across models concerning differing technology portfolios (i.e.…”

Section: The Anticipated Role Of Bioenergy In the 21st Centurymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…39 This result is consistent, even when adopting pessimistic assumptions on biomass availability and the development of advanced technologies such as 2 nd generation biofuels of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). 70,71 Within these scenarios, bioenergy is overwhelmingly used in combination with BECCS (>90% of scenarios meeting at least a 2°C target). Models project the adoption and scaling up of these technologies in order to take advantage of so-called "negative emissions".…”

Section: Sustainability Of Bioenergy Within the Bioeconomymentioning

confidence: 99%

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The future of biomass and bioenergy deployment and trade: a synthesis of 15 years IEA Bioenergy Task 40 on sustainable bioenergy trade

Junginger

Mai-Moulin

Daioglou

et al. 2019

Biofuels Bioprod Bioref

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Current biomass production and trade volumes for energy and new materials and bio‐chemicals are only a small fraction to achieve the bioenergy levels suggested by many global energy and climate change mitigation scenarios for 2050. However, comprehensive sustainability of large scale biomass production and trading has yet to be secured, and governance of developing biomass markets is a critical issue. Fundamental choices need to be made on how to develop sustainable biomass supply chains and govern sustainable international biomass markets. The aim of this paper is to provide a vision of how widespread trade and deployment of biomass for energy purposes can be integrated with the wider (bio)economy. It provides an overview of past and current trade flows of the main bioenergy products, and discusses the most important drivers and barriers for bioenergy in general, and more specifically the further development of bioenergy trade over the coming years. It discusses the role of bioenergy as part of the bioeconomy and other potential roles; and how it can help to achieve the sustainable development goals. The paper concludes that it is critical to demonstrate innovative and integrated value chains for biofuels, bioproducts, and biopower that can respond with agility to market factors while providing economic, environmental, and societal benefits to international trade and market. Furthermore, flexible biogenic carbon supply nets based on broad feedstock portfolios and multiple energy and material utilization pathways will reduce risks for involved stakeholder and foster the market entry and uptake of various densified biogenic carbon carriers. © 2019 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

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Section: The Anticipated Role Of Bioenergy In the 21st Centurysupporting

confidence: 58%

Section: The Anticipated Role Of Bioenergy In the 21st Centurymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Sustainability Of Bioenergy Within the Bioeconomymentioning

confidence: 99%

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The future of biomass and bioenergy deployment and trade: a synthesis of 15 years IEA Bioenergy Task 40 on sustainable bioenergy trade

Junginger

Mai-Moulin

Daioglou

et al. 2019

Biofuels Bioprod Bioref

Self Cite

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“…Previous papers have shown various options to transform to low-carbon pathways; however, to create negative emissions, BECCS has been widely assumed to be the predominant technology (Clarke et al 2014). Imposing very low carbon budgets for 1.5°C would need BECCS to offset 600-1300 GtCO 2 globally over the 21st century, and excluding BECCS or limiting bioenergy use is most likely to make the stringent goal infeasible (Bauer et al 2018). In the first half of the century, according to cost-effective competitions, only a very small fraction of electricity is biopower in China (figures 3(a), (b)).…”

Section: Beccsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In a global perspective, international IAM comparisons have repeatedly reached a common conclusion that large-scale biomass is vital to lowcarbon energy transition and climate management (Fridahl et al 2018). By comparing results across 11 models, Bauer et al (2018) present that about 80-250 (90-280) and 140-420 (230-440) EJyr −1 of global total biomass is used by 2050 and 2100, respectively for meeting 2°C (1.5°C). According to the Fifth Assessment (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (Clarke et al 2014, Rose et al 2014, bioenergy (modern biomass) is projected to account for 3%-37% (23%-50%) of global 2050 (2100) primary energy in 2°C-consistent scenarios.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The role of biomass in China’s long-term mitigation toward the Paris climate goals

Pan

Chen

Wang

et al. 2018

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Biomass is a crucial option of substituting fossil fuels to reduce emissions, and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) allows for obtaining net-negative emissions. We explore the role of biomass in China's long-term mitigation toward the Paris climate goals in light of three narratives and five mitigation scenarios, modeling by a refined Global Change Assessment Model. While presenting a limited contribution to achieving China's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), biomass plays an important role in China's post-NDC mitigation toward the Paris climate goals. All the assessed scenarios call for extensive biomass use, accounting for 6.5%-28% of China's 2100 primary energy in our three 2°C scenarios and 15%-30% in our two 1.5°C scenarios. The exact biomass deployment trajectories tend to depend greatly on how China envisages national mitigation paces and BECCS strategies. For either 2°C or 1.5°C, a smaller negative-emission narrative, which means a more rapid immediate decarbonization of the energy system toward mid-century, depends on larger bioenergy in medium-to-long-term. Delaying short-and medium-term ambition delays bioenergy applications but requires far more in the second half of the century to create greater negative emissions via BECCS. Moving from 2°C toward 1.5°C features higher and earlier bioenergy deployments and meaningfully increasing BECCS volumes and biofuel shares in China's energy system. Consequently, the Chinese stockholders might be ready to make a decision on to what degree biomass and BECCS enter the sphere of China's energy and climate policies, which will greatly influence not only national biomass roadmap but also mid-century mitigation targets.

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World agricultural baseline scenarios through 2050

Sands

Suttles

2022

Applied Eco Perspectives Pol

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The European Green Deal aims to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions to zero by 2050. The effort required to meet greenhouse gas emission targets or other sustainable development goals depends on the difference between baseline levels and policy targets. This paper provides a set of plausible world agricultural baseline scenarios through 2050 with a variety of agricultural indicators: food calories consumed, crop calories produced, average crop yields, and associated greenhouse gas emissions. Growth of agricultural activity varies widely across world regions, from Europe with a relatively stable population to sub‐Saharan Africa with rapidly growing populations and per‐capita incomes.

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Global energy sector emission reductions and bioenergy use: overview of the bioenergy demand phase of the EMF-33 model comparison

Cited by 141 publications

References 32 publications

The future of biomass and bioenergy deployment and trade: a synthesis of 15 years IEA Bioenergy Task 40 on sustainable bioenergy trade

The future of biomass and bioenergy deployment and trade: a synthesis of 15 years IEA Bioenergy Task 40 on sustainable bioenergy trade

The role of biomass in China’s long-term mitigation toward the Paris climate goals

World agricultural baseline scenarios through 2050

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