Global exposure to river and coastal flooding: Long term trends and changes

Jongman, Brenden; Ward, Philip J.; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.

doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.07.004

Cited by 783 publications

(609 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…Current trends in disaster losses appear consistent with what this paper finds as an optimal pathway, namely a trend toward fewer but larger disasters (e.g., Etkin 1999;Nordhaus 2010;Bouwer et al 2007;Pielke et al 2008;Bouwer 2011;Schumacher and Strobl 2011;Jongman et al 2012Jongman et al , 2014. These results are also in line with UN-ISDR (2009), which observes that poor countries suffer from frequent and low-cost events, while rich countries suffer from rare but high-cost events.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 86%

“…This evolution can be explained by population and economic growth (richer countries have more assets that can be lost or damaged), and is magnified by an increasing exposure to risk, even in relative terms (an increasing share of assets is located in at-risk areas) (Schmidt et al 2009;Neumayer and Barthel 2010;Bouwer 2011;Jongman et al 2012;IPCC 2012 hurricane-prone areas can explain why hurricane losses are increasing more rapidly than GDP in the US (Pielke et al 2008). Globally, there is a trend toward higher exposure to risk: between 1970 and 2010, global population grew by 87%, but the population living in flood plains increased by 114% and in cyclone-prone coastlines by 192%.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A Normative Exploration of the Link Between Development, Economic Growth, and Natural Risk

Hallegatte

2017

EconDisCliCha

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The link between development and disaster losses is investigated in a normative framework. The paper innovates in modeling risk taking and its benefits. Under undemanding conditions, it is optimal for (i) disaster probability to decrease with income; (ii) the relative exposure to risk, i.e. the share of capital located in at-risk areas, to increase and the losses per event to increase faster than economic growth; and (iii) the risk, i.e. expected losses, to grow faster than income at low levels of development and slower than income at high levels of development. Increasing exposure to risk is both a consequence and a driver of economic growth and reducing disaster risk through reduced exposure is costly.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 86%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Normative Exploration of the Link Between Development, Economic Growth, and Natural Risk

Hallegatte

2017

EconDisCliCha

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“…Today, about 10 % of the world's population (>600 million people) and about 65 % of the world's cities with populations of greater than 5 million are located at elevations less than 10 m above sea level [1], and ∼150 million people live within 1 m of the high tide level [2]. Over the last four decades, rapid migration towards the coast and development has significantly increased exposure of populations and assets to extreme sea level events, with about 270 million people and US$13 trillion worth of assets being exposed to such events in 2010 [3]. Continued population growth, economic development, and urbanization, combined with additional sea level rise and associated increase in frequency of extreme sea level events, will further increase the risk and impacts in coastal zones [4].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent Progress in Understanding and Projecting Regional and Global Mean Sea Level Change

Clark

Church

Gregory

et al. 2015

Curr Clim Change Rep

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Considerable progress has been made in understanding the present and future regional and global sea level in the 2 years since the publication of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here, we evaluate how the new results affect the AR5's assessment of (i) historical sea level rise, including attribution of that rise and implications for the sea level budget, (ii) projections of the components and of total global mean sea level (GMSL), and (iii) projections of regional variability and emergence of the anthropogenic signal. In each of these cases, new work largely provides additional evidence in support of the AR5 assessment, providing greater confidence in those findings. Recent analyses confirm the twentieth century sea level rise, with some analyses showing a slightly smaller rate before 1990 and some a slightly larger value than reported in the AR5. There is now more evidence of an acceleration in the rate of rise. Ongoing ocean heat uptake and associated thermal expansion have continued since 2000, and are consistent with ocean thermal expansion reported in the AR5. A significant amount of heat is being stored deeper in the water column, with a larger rate of heat uptake since 2000 compared to the previous decades and with the largest storage in the Southern Ocean. The first formal detection studies for ocean thermal expansion and glacier mass loss since the AR5 have confirmed the AR5 finding of a significant anthropogenic contribution to sea level rise over the last 50 years. New projections of glacier loss from two regions suggest smaller contributions to GMSL rise from these regions than in studies assessed by the AR5; additional regional studies are required to further assess whether there are broader implications of these results. Mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased surface melting, and from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased ice discharge, has accelerated. The largest estimates of acceleration in mass loss from the two ice sheets for 2003-2013 equal or exceed the acceleration of GMSL rise calculated from the satellite altimeter sea level record over the longer period of 1993-2014. However, when increased mass gain in land water storage and parts of East Antarctica, and decreased mass loss from glaciers in Alaska and some other regions are taken into account, the net acceleration in the ocean mass gain is consistent with the satellite altimeter record. New studies suggest that a marine ice sheet instability (MISI) may have been initiated in parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), but that it will affect only a limited number of ice streams in the twenty-first century. New projections of mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets by 2100, including a contribution from parts of WAIS undergoing unstable retreat, suggest a contribution that falls largely within the likely range (i.e., two thirds probability) of the AR5. These new results increase confidence in the AR5 likel...

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“…The IPCC [3] identified exposure and vulnerability as key determiners of disaster risk. Furthermore, there is high FRQILGHQFH WKDW ³LQFUHDVLQJ H[SRVXUH RI SHRSOH DQG economic assets has been the major cause of long-term increases in economic losses from weather-and climate-UHODWHG GLVDVWHUV´ > @ %HLQJ DZDUH RI WKHVH LPSRUWDQW drivers ± beside the challenge of climate change ± efficient flood risk management strategies are strongly related to the availability of data and the assessment of elements at risk [4]. Investigations on the long-term evolution of exposure and the effects on flood risk is still rare, and most studies focus only on the local scale with individual case studies.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal aspects of flood exposure in Switzerland

2016

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Abstract. While flood hazard mapping in Switzerland is close to completion, only a limited number of studies have been specifically conducted on exposure and vulnerability. We fill this knowledge gap by conducting a nation-wide study of flood exposure of buildings in Switzerland. Therefore, we generate a country-wide comprehensive and homogenous data set of polygons of residential buildings and their period of construction and overlay these building polygons with compiled and harmonized flood hazard maps provided by the Swiss cantons. In this paper we present first results of spatiotemporal analyses, namely the evolution of exposure from 1919 to 2012. Surprising is the increase in the share of exposure of new constructed buildings since the 1980s which contradicts the indented effects of the Swiss flood risk management strategies and calls for further investigations.

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Global exposure to river and coastal flooding: Long term trends and changes

Cited by 783 publications

References 35 publications

A Normative Exploration of the Link Between Development, Economic Growth, and Natural Risk

A Normative Exploration of the Link Between Development, Economic Growth, and Natural Risk

Recent Progress in Understanding and Projecting Regional and Global Mean Sea Level Change

Spatiotemporal aspects of flood exposure in Switzerland

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