Global fossil carbon emissions rebound near pre-COVID-19 levels

Jackson, Robert B.; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Quéré, Corinne Le; Abernethy, Sam; Andrew, RM; Canadell, Josep G.; Ciais, Philippe; Davis, Steven J.; Deng, Zhu; Liu, Zhu; Peters, GP

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac55b6

Cited by 64 publications

(33 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…Emissions increased by 368 kt (58-677 kt) as compared with those of the lockdown period. The same was reported for several other pollutant emissions 51,52 .…”

Section: Country-level Emission Changes Due To Covid-19 Restrictionssupporting

confidence: 82%

NH3 emissions over Europe during COVID-19 were modulated by changes in atmospheric chemistry.

Tichý

Otervik

Eckhardt

et al. 2022

Preprint

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The coronavirus outbreak in 2020 had devastating impact on human life, albeit a positive effect for the environment reducing primary atmospheric constituents and improving air quality. Here we present for the first-time inverse modelling estimates of ammonia emissions during the European lockdowns based on satellite observations. Ammonia that originates mainly from agriculture is not projected to be strongly influenced by restrictions, as practically agricultural activity never ceased. The key result is a -1.5% decrease in emissions in the first half of 2020 compared to the same period in 2016–2019 attributed to changes in ammonia’s atmospheric levels and an abrupt − 11.7% decrease due to reductions in the traffic-related precursors of atmospheric acids, with which ammonia reacts to form secondary aerosols. The same was found when comparing emissions before, during and after lockdowns, namely a -1.2% and − 13.5% decrease, and a rebound of + 5.9% when restrictions were relaxed. Despite the drop in emissions, satellite levels of ammonia increased. On one hand, this was due to the reduction of atmospheric acids that caused binding less ammonia; on the other, the reduction of traffic emissions in Europe increased the oxidative capacity of the atmosphere resulting in nitrate abatement that favored accumulation of free ammonia.

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“…Emissions increased by 368 kt (58-677 kt) as compared with those of the lockdown period. The same was reported for several other pollutant emissions 51,52 .…”

Section: Country-level Emission Changes Due To Covid-19 Restrictionssupporting

confidence: 82%

NH3 emissions over Europe during COVID-19 were modulated by changes in atmospheric chemistry.

Tichý

Otervik

Eckhardt

et al. 2022

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The global daily fossil CO 2 emissions only from surface transport decreased by up to 7.5 MtCO 2 dˆ-1 in April 2020 concerning annual mean daily emissions from this sector in 2019. As Jackson et al (2021) expected, the global fossil CO 2 emissions returned to 2019 levels in 2021.…”

Section: General Mobility and Cycling Trends During The Covid-19 Pand...supporting

confidence: 59%

Cycling during and after the COVID-19 pandemic

Francke

2022

Advances in Transport Policy and Planning

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“…However, the exact impact is highly uncertain given the unpredictable future course of the pandemic and the uncertainty in the implementation of recovery measures. It is expected that emissions are likely to rebound if the COVID-19 crisis eases (International Energy Agency, 2020a, 2021cJackson et al, 2022) and climate policies are not intensified. Nonetheless, the recovery spending could provide a unique opportunity to change this: If recovery packages would focus on accelerating the transition toward low-carbon energy and improving energy efficiency, it could be a significant boost toward reaching the Paris Agreement targets and national climate policy goals (Hans et al, 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Targeted Green Recovery Measures in a Post-COVID-19 World Enable the Energy Transition

et al. 2022

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Despite the significant volume of fiscal recovery measures announced by countries to deal with the COVID-19 crisis, most recovery plans allocate a low percentage to green recovery. We present scenarios exploring the medium- and long-term impact of the COVID-19 crisis and develop a Green Recovery scenario using three well-established global models to analyze the impact of a low-carbon focused stimulus. The results show that a Green Recovery scenario, with 1% of global GDP in fiscal support directed to mitigation measures for 3 years, could reduce global CO2 emissions by 10.5–15.5% below pre-COVID-19 projections by 2030, closing 8–11.5% of the emissions gap with cost-optimal 2°C pathways. The share of renewables in global electricity generation is projected to reach 45% in 2030, the uptake of electric vehicles would be accelerated, and energy efficiency in the buildings and industry sector would improve. However, such a temporary investment should be reinforced with sustained climate policies after 2023 to put the world on a 2°C pathway by mid-century.

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Global fossil carbon emissions rebound near pre-COVID-19 levels

Abstract: Fossil CO2 emissions in 2021 grew an estimated 4.2% (3.5%–4.8%) to 36.2 billion metric tons compared with 2020, pushing global emissions back close to 2019 levels (36.7 Gt CO2).

Cited by 64 publications

References 24 publications

NH3 emissions over Europe during COVID-19 were modulated by changes in atmospheric chemistry.

NH3 emissions over Europe during COVID-19 were modulated by changes in atmospheric chemistry.

Cycling during and after the COVID-19 pandemic

Targeted Green Recovery Measures in a Post-COVID-19 World Enable the Energy Transition

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