Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift

Reid, Philip C.; Hari, Renata E.; Beaugrand, Grégory; Livingstone, David M.; Marty, Christoph; Straile, Dietmar; Barichivich, Jonathan; Goberville, Éric; Adrian, Rita; Aono, Yasuyuki; Brown, Ross; Foster, James L.; Groisman, P. Y.; Hélaouët, Pierre; Hsu, Huang‐Hsiung; Kirby, Richard R.; Knight, Jeff; Kraberg, Alexandra; Li, Minglu; Lo, Tzu-Ting; Myneni, Ranga B.; North, Ryan P.; Pounds, J. Alan; Sparks, Tim H.; Stübi, René; Tian, Yongjun; Wiltshire, Karen Helen; Xiao, Dong; Zhu, Zaichun

doi:10.1111/gcb.13106

Cited by 272 publications

(241 citation statements)

References 62 publications

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“…5). This is an agreement with the abrupt temperature change observed at this date by recent studies Brulebois et al, 2015;Reid et al, 2016) which for the west part of Europe correspond to the 'start' of the surface warming. Similar results are observed when frost stress is derived from station or gridded climate data (Tab.…”

Section: Evolution Of the Frost Stresssupporting

confidence: 92%

“…These results support recent works Brulebois et al, 2015) conducted over Burgundy and France as well as over Europe (Reid et al, 2016) and global scale (Reid and Beaugrand, 2012;Xiao et al, 2012) that show an abrupt warming in 1987/1988. Our results show a higher warming for T max than for T min .…”

Section: Temperatures Interpolationsupporting

confidence: 91%

“…Recent researches show a temperature abrupt shift around 1987/1988 over France (Brulebois et al, 2015), Europe (de Laat and Crok, 2013;Reid et al, 2016) and more generally over large scale (Reid and Beaugrand, 2012;Xiao et al, 2012). This warming has affected the Burgundy-Franche-Comté winter climate conditions Richard et al, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

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Frost stress evolution and winter pea ideotype in the context of climate warming at a regional scale

Castel

Lecomte

Richard

et al. 2017

OCL

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-Pea (Pisum sativum L.) is an important crop in temperate regions for its high seed protein concentration that is particularly sensitive to abiotic stresses. The abrupt temperature increase known as the "1987/1988 temperature regime shift" that occurs over Europe is questioning how winter pea will perform in the changing climate. This study assessed the winter frost damage evolution along from 1961 to 2015 in Burgundy-Franche-Comté by using: (1) daily observed and gridded regional temperature data and (2) a validated crop winter frost stress model calibrated for pea. This study shows a global decrease of the frost stress nevertheless resulting from a subtle balance between the decrease in its intensity and the increase of the number of events. The frost stress evolution patterns with warming depend on both plant frost resistance level and acclimation rate and are still sensitive to winter climate fluctuations. This study provides relevant information for breeding performant winter crop ideotypes able to moderate detrimental effects of climate change and offering new cropping opportunities in temperate regions.

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Section: Evolution Of the Frost Stresssupporting

confidence: 92%

Section: Temperatures Interpolationsupporting

confidence: 91%

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Frost stress evolution and winter pea ideotype in the context of climate warming at a regional scale

Castel

Lecomte

Richard

et al. 2017

OCL

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“…Low AR-1 values (far from the theoretical value of 1 at which critical transitions occur) reflect the fact that transitions in the real world are likely triggered well before the actual tipping point is reached (25,39). Evaluation of the full power spectrum for changes in power in aggregated low vs. high frequencies over time indicated that higher-order AR processes did not provide more information than the AR-1.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 93%

Evaluating early-warning indicators of critical transitions in natural aquatic ecosystems

Gsell

Scharfenberger

Özkundakci

et al. 2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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124

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Ecosystems can show sudden and persistent changes in state despite only incremental changes in drivers. Such critical transitions are difficult to predict, because the state of the system often shows little change before the transition. Early-warning indicators (EWIs) are hypothesized to signal the loss of system resilience and have been shown to precede critical transitions in theoretical models, paleo-climate time series, and in laboratory as well as whole lake experiments. The generalizability of EWIs for detecting critical transitions in empirical time series of natural aquatic ecosystems remains largely untested, however. Here we assessed four commonly used EWIs on long-term datasets of five freshwater ecosystems that have experienced sudden, persistent transitions and for which the relevant ecological mechanisms and drivers are well understood. These case studies were categorized by three mechanisms that can generate critical transitions between alternative states: competition, trophic cascade, and intraguild predation. Although EWIs could be detected in most of the case studies, agreement among the four indicators was low. In some cases, EWIs were detected considerably ahead of the transition. Nonetheless, our results show that at present, EWIs do not provide reliable and consistent signals of impending critical transitions despite using some of the best routinely monitored freshwater ecosystems. Our analysis strongly suggests that a priori knowledge of the underlying mechanisms driving ecosystem transitions is necessary to identify relevant state variables for successfully monitoring EWIs.

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“…This change is explained by a northward expansion of the Hadley cell, a poleward expansion and intensification of the Ferrel cell, and a collapse of the polar cell (Kim et al, 2015). A thorough analysis of the regime shifts in the 1980s and their global impact on the biosphere was conducted by Reid et al (2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends and regime shifts in climatic conditions and river runoff in Estonia during 1951–2015

et al. 2017

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Abstract. Time series of monthly, seasonal and annual mean air temperature, precipitation, snow cover duration and specific runoff of rivers in Estonia are analysed for detecting of trends and regime shifts during 1951-2015. Trend analysis is realised using the Mann-Kendall test and regime shifts are detected with the Rodionov test (sequential t-test analysis of regime shifts). The results from Estonia are related to trends and regime shifts in time series of indices of large-scale atmospheric circulation. Annual mean air temperature has significantly increased at all 12 stations by 0.3-0.4 K decade −1 . The warming trend was detected in all seasons but with the higher magnitude in spring and winter. Snow cover duration has decreased in Estonia by 3-4 days decade −1 . Changes in precipitation are not clear and uniform due to their very high spatial and temporal variability. The most significant increase in precipitation was observed during the cold half-year, from November to March and also in June. A time series of specific runoff measured at 21 stations had significant seasonal changes during the study period. Winter values have increased by 0.4-0.9 L s −1 km −2 decade −1 , while stronger changes are typical for western Estonia and weaker changes for eastern Estonia. At the same time, specific runoff in April and May have notably decreased indicating the shift of the runoff maximum to the earlier time, i.e. from April to March. Air temperature, precipitation, snow cover duration and specific runoff of rivers are highly correlated in winter determined by the large-scale atmospheric circulation. Correlation coefficients between the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices reflecting the intensity of westerlies, and the studied variables were 0.5-0.8. The main result of the analysis of regime shifts was the detection of coherent shifts for air temperature, snow cover duration and specific runoff in the late 1980s, mostly since the winter of 1988/1989, which are, in turn, synchronous with the shifts in winter circulation. For example, runoff abruptly increased in January, February and March but decreased in April. Regime shifts in annual specific runoff correspond to the alternation of wet and dry periods. A dry period started in 1964 or 1963, a wet period in 1978 and the next dry period at the beginning of the 21st century.

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Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift

Cited by 272 publications

References 62 publications

Frost stress evolution and winter pea ideotype in the context of climate warming at a regional scale

Frost stress evolution and winter pea ideotype in the context of climate warming at a regional scale

Evaluating early-warning indicators of critical transitions in natural aquatic ecosystems

Trends and regime shifts in climatic conditions and river runoff in Estonia during 1951–2015

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