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International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth (IPC -IG)Poverty Practice, Bureau for Development Policy, UNDP SBS, Quadra 1, Bloco J, Ed. BNDES, 13º andar 70076-900 Brasilia, DF -Brazil Telephone: +55 61 21055000 E-mail: ipc@ipc-undp.org URL: www.ipc-undp.orgThe International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth disseminates the findings of its work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. The papers are signed by the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions that they express are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the United Nations Development Programme or the Government of Brazil.Working Papers are available online at www.ipc-undp.org and subscriptions can be requested by email to ipc@ipc-undp.orgPrint ISSN: 1812-108X
THE FUTURE OF GLOBAL POVERTY IN A MULTI-SPEED WORLD: NEW ESTIMATES OF SCALE, LOCATION AND COSTPeter Edward and Andy Sumner* Various recent papers have sought to make projections about the scale and locations of global poverty in the next 20 to 30 years. Such forecasts have significant policy implications because they are used to inform debates on the scale and objectives of future aid. However, these papers have produced some very different projections for global poverty so that a complex and rather inconsistent picture has emerged. Estimating even current global poverty levels is problematic for a range of reasons arising largely from the limitations of available data and the various alternative modelling approaches used to compensate for them. Forecasts for future poverty become further complicated by the range of scenarios for future economic growth and changes in inequality. Largely as a result of these differences, not only do different analysts arrive at very different understandings of the extent and prospects for global poverty but it is also extremely difficult to make meaningful comparisons between different analyses.In response to this, we introduce here a new model of growth, inequality and poverty that has been developed to allow comparative analyses under a wide range of different input assumptions. After validating the model against World Bank estimates of historical poverty, we then use it to explore and expose how, and by h...