Global lake thermal regions shift under climate change

Maberly, Stephen C.; O’Donnell, Ruth; Woolway, R. Iestyn; Cutler, Mark E. J.; Gong, Mengyi; Jones, Ian D.; Merchant, Christopher J.; Miller, Claire A.; Politi, Eirini; Scott, E. M.; Thackeray, Stephen J.; Tyler, Andrew N.

doi:10.1038/s41467-020-15108-z

Cited by 142 publications

(118 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…Further perspectives of changes in thermal regime of lakes point to their continuous warming. Based on climatic forecasts from the 21 st century, Maberly et al (2020) determined that by 2080-2099, many lakes will be transformed into a thermal region with a lower latitude. Detailed data concerning the territory of Poland are presented by Czernecki and Ptak (2018), predicting changes in water temperature by the end of the 21 st century.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of climate warming on a change in thermal and ice conditions in the largest lake in Poland – Lake Śniardwy

Ptak

Sojka

Nowak

2020

Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics

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Lake Śniardwy is the largest among more than 7000 Polish lakes. So far, it has not been a subject of detailed investigations concerning long-term changes in water temperature or ice regime. A considerable change in thermal and ice conditions has been observed in the period 1972–2019. Mean annual water temperature increased by 0.44°C dec−1 on average, and was higher than an increase in air temperature (0.33°C dec−1). In the monthly cycle, the most dynamic changes occurred in April (0.77°C dec−1). In the case of ice cover, it appeared increasingly later (5.3 days dec−1), and disappeared earlier (3.0 days dec−1). The thickness of ice cover also decreased (2.4 cm dec−1). Statistical analysis by means of a Pettitt test showed that the critical moment for the transformations of the thermal and ice regime was the end of the 1980’s. In addition to the obvious relations with air temperature for both characteristics, it was evidenced that the occurrence of ice cover depended on wind speed and snow cover. The recorded changes in the case of Lake Śniardwy are considered unfavourable, and their consequences will affect the course of physical, chemical, and biological processes in the largest lake in Poland.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of climate warming on a change in thermal and ice conditions in the largest lake in Poland – Lake Śniardwy

Ptak

Sojka

Nowak

2020

Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics

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“…Most global studies of LSWT responses to climate change focus on summer observations in temperate and high latitude regions, and winter observations in the tropics, partly because of obscuration of satellite retrievals by tropical clouds during summer or because a large proportion of lakes in northern latitudes are frozen during winter. We could, therefore, be missing impor tant changes that are taking place in other seasons 44,[58][59][60] , which merits future study.…”

Section: Key Pointsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global lake responses to climate change

Woolway

Kraemer

Lenters

et al. 2020

Nat Rev Earth Environ

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817

391

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| Climate change is one of the most severe threats to global lake ecosystems. Lake surface conditions, such as ice cover, surface temperature, evaporation and water level, respond dramatically to this threat, as observed in recent decades. In this Review, we discuss physical lake variables and their responses to climate change. Decreases in winter ice cover and increases in lake surface temperature modify lake mixing regimes and accelerate lake evaporation. Where not balanced by increased mean precipitation or inflow, higher evaporation rates will favour a decrease in lake level and surface water extent. Together with increases in extreme-precipitation events, these lake responses will impact lake ecosystems, changing water quantity and quality, food provisioning, recreational opportunities and transportation. Future research opportunities, including enhanced observation of lake variables from space (particularly for small water bodies), improved in situ lake monitoring and the development of advanced modelling techniques to predict lake processes, will improve our global understanding of lake responses to a changing climate.

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“…The suite of lakes spans a wide range in location, elevation, water quality, trophic status, and morphometry, with high representation of globally-dominant small lakes 29 (45% with surface area ≤ 5 km 226 , 32% with maximum depth ≤ 20 m). We classified these lakes based on lake thermal region 30 to characterize the nature of this dataset and to analyse its global relevance for predicting trends in lake thermal structure. Lake thermal region is a global classification system based on seasonal dynamics of lake surface temperature, and thereby implicitly integrates other factors like location and elevation 30 .…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We classified these lakes based on lake thermal region 30 to characterize the nature of this dataset and to analyse its global relevance for predicting trends in lake thermal structure. Lake thermal region is a global classification system based on seasonal dynamics of lake surface temperature, and thereby implicitly integrates other factors like location and elevation 30 . Lake thermal region is not closely linked to air temperature trends or other terrestrial-based or ecoregion-derived classification systems, which indicates that the drivers of changes in lakes, including lake thermal structure, are likely different from those for terrestrial-or vegetation-based ecosystems.…”

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Deeper waters are changing less consistently than surface waters in a global analysis of 102 lakes

Pilla

Williamson

Адамович

et al. 2020

Sci Rep

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Globally, lake surface water temperatures have warmed rapidly relative to air temperatures, but changes in deepwater temperatures and vertical thermal structure are still largely unknown. We have compiled the most comprehensive data set to date of long-term (1970–2009) summertime vertical temperature profiles in lakes across the world to examine trends and drivers of whole-lake vertical thermal structure. We found significant increases in surface water temperatures across lakes at an average rate of + 0.37 °C decade−1, comparable to changes reported previously for other lakes, and similarly consistent trends of increasing water column stability (+ 0.08 kg m−3 decade−1). In contrast, however, deepwater temperature trends showed little change on average (+ 0.06 °C decade−1), but had high variability across lakes, with trends in individual lakes ranging from − 0.68 °C decade−1 to + 0.65 °C decade−1. The variability in deepwater temperature trends was not explained by trends in either surface water temperatures or thermal stability within lakes, and only 8.4% was explained by lake thermal region or local lake characteristics in a random forest analysis. These findings suggest that external drivers beyond our tested lake characteristics are important in explaining long-term trends in thermal structure, such as local to regional climate patterns or additional external anthropogenic influences.

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Global lake thermal regions shift under climate change

Cited by 142 publications

References 47 publications

Effect of climate warming on a change in thermal and ice conditions in the largest lake in Poland – Lake Śniardwy

Effect of climate warming on a change in thermal and ice conditions in the largest lake in Poland – Lake Śniardwy

Global lake responses to climate change

Deeper waters are changing less consistently than surface waters in a global analysis of 102 lakes

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