Global Macroeconomic Scenarios of the COVID-19 Pandemic

McKibbin, Warwick J.; Fernando, Roshen

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3635103

Cited by 76 publications

(71 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…These can be captured using global CGE models. Global CGE studies of Covid-19 to date include an application of the G-Cubed model ( McKibbin & Fernando, 2020 ), the ImpactECON Supply-Chain Model ( Walmsley et al, 2020 ) which is a modified version of the GTAP model, and the ENVISAGE model ( Maliszewska et al, 2020 ). All three model frameworks rely on the global GTAP data base.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of Covid-19, associated behaviours and policies on the UK economy: A computable general equilibrium model

Keogh-Brown

Jensen

Edmunds

et al. 2020

SSM - Population Health

127

114

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We estimate the potential impact of COVID-19 on the United Kingdom economy, including direct disease effects, preventive public actions and associated policies. A sectoral, whole-economy macroeconomic model was linked to a population-wide epidemiological demographic model to assess the potential macroeconomic impact of COVID-19, together with policies to mitigate or suppress the pandemic by means of home quarantine, school closures, social distancing and accompanying business closures. Our simulations indicate that, assuming a clinical attack rate of 48% and a case fatality ratio of 1.5%, COVID-19 alone would impose a direct health-related economic burden of £39.6bn (1.73% of GDP) on the UK economy. Mitigation strategies imposed for 12 weeks reduce case fatalities by 29%, but the total cost to the economy is £308bn (13.5% of GDP); £66bn (2.9% of GDP) of which is attributable to labour lost from working parents during school closures, and £201bn (8.8% of GDP) of which is attributable to business closures. Suppressing the pandemic over a longer period of time may reduce deaths by 95%, but the total cost to the UK economy also increases to £668bn (29.2% of GDP), where £166bn (7.3% of GDP) is attributable to school closures and 502bn (21.9% of GDP) to business closures. Our analyses suggest Covid-19 has the potential to impose unprecedented economic costs on the UK economy, and whilst public actions are necessary to minimise mortality, the duration of school and business closures are key to determining the economic cost. The initial economic support package promised by the UK government may be proportionate to the costs of mitigating Covid-19, but without alternative measures to reduce the scale and duration of school and business closures, the economic support may be insufficient to compensate for longer term suppression of the pandemic which could generate an even greater health impact through major recession.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of Covid-19, associated behaviours and policies on the UK economy: A computable general equilibrium model

Keogh-Brown

Jensen

Edmunds

et al. 2020

SSM - Population Health

127

114

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“…However, with the emergence and worsening of the COVID-19 pandemic in the world, there is a fear of an increase in poaching in rural communities ( Briggs, 2020 ). The relationship stems from the economic impact and loss of income of societies in the face of the pandemic ( McKibbin and Fernando, 2020 ). This is very worrying, especially in regions with a low human development index (HDI) such as the municipalities that make up Boqueirão da Onça, who's average HDI is 0.59 ( IBGE, 2010 ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using an occupancy approach to identify poaching hotspots in protected areas in a seasonally dry tropical forest

Dias

Ferreguetti

Rodrigues

2020

Biological Conservation

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Poaching activity has been described in the literature as harmful due to impacts on biodiversity, especially in protected areas. Although the main reason for this activity is subsistence, in many regions motivation goes beyond the limits of food necessity. We applied single-species, single season occupancy models to evaluate the spatial distribution of poachers and identify potential poaching hotspots in a mosaic of protected areas in the Caatinga domain, northeastern Brazil. We used camera-traps over a period of 200 days at 60 sites randomly selected. We used distances from human settlements, roads and the nearest water holes, frequency of game species and sampling effort as covariables that could influence poachers' occupancy and detectability and to identify potential poaching areas. Occupancy poachers were higher in sites with higher frequency of game species. Frequency of game species and distance from roads had a negative effect on the detectability of poachers. Spatial analysis indicated three critical poaching areas within and around the Boqueirão da Onça National Park, associated with roads and some isolated cattle and goat farms. In this study, we provided an assessment of poaching spatial patterns in relation to different landscape elements and biotic influences, indicating critical areas where enforcement efforts should be focused. Hotspots are clearly concentrated within and on the edge of National Park. The approach presented here to identify poaching hotspots is effective and economical, and therefore may be applied in other protected and non-protected areas throughout the world.

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“…Italy has been the first non-Asian country to experience a severe COVID-19 outbreak, and to establish strictly enforced country-wide lockdown measures ( Remuzzi and Remuzzi, 2020 ). On March 11, 2020, severe restrictions to movements and economic activities were enforced, and a complete ban of recreational, touristic, and non-essential economic activities was established ( McKibbin and Fernando, 2020 ; Paterlini, 2020 ; Remuzzi and Remuzzi, 2020 ) followed by impressive reduction of roadside traffic ( Pepe et al, 2020 ). Such stringent lockdown measures were confirmed until May 4, 2020, when restrictions started to be progressively lifted.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The good, the bad and the ugly of COVID-19 lockdown effects on wildlife conservation: Insights from the first European locked down country

Manenti

Mori

Canio

et al. 2020

Biological Conservation

218

226

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The COVID-19 pandemic zoonosis has determined extensive lockdowns worldwide that provide an unprecedented opportunity to understand how large-scale shifts of human activities can impact wildlife. We addressed the impacts of the COVID-19 lockdown on wildlife in Italy, the first European country that performed a countrywide lockdown, and identified potentially beneficial and negative consequences for wildlife conservation and management. We combined a qualitative analysis of social media information with field data from multiple taxa, data from citizen science projects, and questionnaires addressed to managers of protected areas. Both social media information and field data suggest that a reduction of human disturbance allowed wildlife to exploit new habitats and increase daily activity. The field data confirmed some positive effects on wildlife conservation, such as an increase in species richness in temporarily less-disturbed habitats, a higher breeding success of an aerial insectivorous bird, and reduction of road-killing of both amphibians and reptiles. Despite some positive effects, our data also highlighted several negative impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on wildlife. The lower human disturbance linked to lockdown was in fact beneficial for invasive alien species. Results from questionnaires addressed to managers of protected areas highlighted that the COVID-19 lockdown interrupted actions for the control of invasive alien species, and hampered conservation activities targeting threatened taxa. Furthermore, the reduction of enforcement could cause a surge of illegal killing of wildlife. The COVID-19 crisis, besides having deep socio-economic impacts, might profoundly affect wildlife conservation, with potentially long-lasting effects.

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Global Macroeconomic Scenarios of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Cited by 76 publications

References 7 publications

The impact of Covid-19, associated behaviours and policies on the UK economy: A computable general equilibrium model

The impact of Covid-19, associated behaviours and policies on the UK economy: A computable general equilibrium model

Using an occupancy approach to identify poaching hotspots in protected areas in a seasonally dry tropical forest

The good, the bad and the ugly of COVID-19 lockdown effects on wildlife conservation: Insights from the first European locked down country

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