Global mitigation potential of carbon stored in harvested wood products

Abstract

Carbon stored in harvested wood products (HWPs) can affect national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories, in which the production and end use of HWPs play a key role. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides guidance on HWP carbon accounting, which is sensitive to future developments of socioeconomic factors including population, income, and trade. We estimated the carbon stored within HWPs from 1961 to 2065 for 180 countries following IPCC carbon-accounting guidelines, consistent with Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAOSTAT) historical data and plausible futures outlined by the shared socioeconomic pathways. We found that the global HWP pool was a net annual sink of 335 Mt of CO2 equivalent (CO2e)⋅y−1 in 2015, offsetting substantial amounts of industrial processes within some countries, and as much as 441 Mt of CO2e⋅y−1 by 2030 under certain socioeconomic developments. Furthermore, there is a considerable sequestration gap (71 Mt of CO2e⋅y−1 of unaccounted carbon storage in 2015 and 120 Mt of CO2e⋅y−1 by 2065) under current IPCC Good Practice Guidance, as traded feedstock is ineligible for national GHG inventories. However, even under favorable socioeconomic conditions, and when accounting for the sequestration gap, carbon stored annually in HWPs is <1% of global emissions. Furthermore, economic shocks can turn the HWP pool into a carbon source either long-term—e.g., the collapse of the USSR—or short-term—e.g., the US economic recession of 2008/09. In conclusion, carbon stored within end-use HWPs varies widely across countries and depends on evolving market forces.

Assessing the contribution of harvested wood products under greenhouse gas estimation: accounting under the Paris Agreement and the potential for double-counting among the choice of approaches

“…Johnston and Radeloff [31] provided similar values of off-set level the global emissions and concluded carbon stored within end-use HWPs varies widely across countries and depends on evolving market forces. Johnston and Radeloff [31] also evaluated there is a considerable sequestration gap (71 Mt of CO 2 e year −1 of unaccounted carbon storage in 2015) under the current GHG Table 5 Summary of HWP reporting in GHG inventories 1990-2016 for each Annex I country IO instantaneous oxidation, SC stock-change, P production, SCAD stock change approach for HWP of domestic origin, S simple-decay, KP applying the LULUCF accounting rule for the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol, NE not estimated, NO not occurring a Difference between a hypothetical baseline based on the average of annual carbon stock changes for the period from 1990 to 2016 and the largest carbon gains within the top one-third for the same period [32], although GHG inventory has not included HWP estimation. The potential impact of HWP in the context of accounting for emission reductions is assumed from a comparison between a hypothetical baseline based on the average of annual carbon stock changes from 1990 to 2016 and the largest carbon gains within the top onethird of countries in the same period.…”

The lifecycle of wood from tropical forests in Costa Rica

“…This corresponds to 3% of the country's total emissions (Chacón et al, 2012). The contribution to total country emissions for Costa Rica is just above reports for Finland, Europe and globally (0.7 -1%; see Johnston & Radeloff, 2019;Pilli et al, 2015;Pingoud et al, 2010). This difference is partly explained as Costa Rica's national GHG inventory does not account for emissions from managed forest lands (Chacón et al, 2012), even though these can be significant (Grassi et al, 2018).…”

“…The size of the stock and the rate at which it grows and decomposes is significant for climate mitigation (Cowie, Pingoud, & Schlamadinger, 2006). Globally, the stock of wood products in use has accumulated around 15-20 Gt CO2, growing at a rate of 335 -540 Mt CO2 per year, and offsetting approximately 1% of global emissions (Iordan, Hu, Arvesen, Kauppi, & Cherubini, 2018;Johnston & Radeloff, 2019). At regional or country levels, this contribution may vary depending on the characteristics of the local forest sector and wood consumption patterns.…”

“…This decreasing trend in long-term products is significant and may not be unique to Costa Rica since product allocation between developed and developing countries tends to be similar (Winjum et al, 1998). Sawn wood production has increased globally but wood based panels showed an exponential growth and is now the most important wood product (Johnston & Radeloff, 2019). In China, the use of wood based panels is currently 20 times higher than in the 1990s and the carbon stock from sawn wood became a carbon source during 2000-2003(L. Zhang et al, 2019.…”

“…Globally, the carbon stock in HWP is known to increase by 26 -139 Tg C yr -1 , i.e. around 0.2 -1.2% of total annual global carbon emissions (Brown, Lim, & Schlamadinger, 1998;Donlan, Skog, & Byrne, 2012;Ji, Cao, Chen, & Yang, 2016;Johnston & Radeloff, 2019;E. S. Marland, Stellar, & Marland, 2010;Pilli et al, 2015;Quéré et al, 2018;Winjum et al, 1998).…”