Global modeling of nature’s contributions to people

Chaplin‐Kramer, Rebecca; Sharp, Richard; Weil, Charlotte; Bennett, Elena M.; Pascual, Unai; Arkema, Katie K.; Brauman, Kate A.; Bryant, Benjamin P.; Guerry, Anne D.; Haddad, Nick M.; Hamann, Maike; Hamel, Perrine; Johnson, Justin A.; Mandle, Lisa; Pereira, Henrique M.; Polasky, Stephen; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Shaw, M. Rebecca; Silver, Jessica M.; Vogl, Adrian L.; Daily, Gretchen C.

doi:10.1126/science.aaw3372

Cited by 345 publications

(211 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…that drivers of change do not deviate from the current socioeconomic and governance trajectory-nature in terrestrial, freshwater, and marine realms and most of its contributions to people will continue to decline sharply. Recent modeling of natural regulation of water quality, reduction of coastal risk, and crop pollination worldwide (84) found convergent conclusions.…”

Section: Possible Futuresmentioning

confidence: 97%

Pervasive human-driven decline of life on Earth points to the need for transformative change

Díaz

Settele

Brondízio

et al. 2019

Science

Self Cite

1,680

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The human impact on life on Earth has increased sharply since the 1970s, driven by the demands of a growing population with rising average per capita income. Nature is currently supplying more materials than ever before, but this has come at the high cost of unprecedented global declines in the extent and integrity of ecosystems, distinctness of local ecological communities, abundance and number of wild species, and the number of local domesticated varieties. Such changes reduce vital benefits that people receive from nature and threaten the quality of life of future generations. Both the benefits of an expanding economy and the costs of reducing nature’s benefits are unequally distributed. The fabric of life on which we all depend—nature and its contributions to people—is unravelling rapidly. Despite the severity of the threats and lack of enough progress in tackling them to date, opportunities exist to change future trajectories through transformative action. Such action must begin immediately, however, and address the root economic, social, and technological causes of nature’s deterioration.

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Section: Possible Futuresmentioning

confidence: 97%

Pervasive human-driven decline of life on Earth points to the need for transformative change

Díaz

Settele

Brondízio

et al. 2019

Science

Self Cite

1,680

1,168

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“…Biogeographers and conservation biologists have long been interested in identifying and characterizing geographic regions containing a higher concentration of biodiversity and derived natural resources than surrounding areas, ranging from within-and among-species diversity through to ecosystem services [1][2][3], at different spatial, temporal and taxonomic scales [4]. Centres (also known as hotspots) and peripheries (coldspots) of plant diversity have been shown to be unevenly distributed and to play a fundamental role in shaping ecosystems and delivering associated benefits to humans and other species [5,6].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Toward Unifying Global Hotspots of Wild and Domesticated Biodiversity

Pironon

Borrell

Ondo

et al. 2020

Plants

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Global biodiversity hotspots are areas containing high levels of species richness, endemism and threat. Similarly, regions of agriculturally relevant diversity have been identified where many domesticated plants and animals originated, and co-occurred with their wild ancestors and relatives. The agro-biodiversity in these regions has, likewise, often been considered threatened. Biodiversity and agro-biodiversity hotspots partly overlap, but their geographic intricacies have rarely been investigated together. Here we review the history of these two concepts and explore their geographic relationship by analysing global distribution and human use data for all plants, and for major crops and associated wild relatives. We highlight a geographic continuum between agro-biodiversity hotspots that contain high richness in species that are intensively used and well known by humanity (i.e., major crops and most viewed species on Wikipedia) and biodiversity hotspots encompassing species that are less heavily used and documented (i.e., crop wild relatives and species lacking information on Wikipedia). Our contribution highlights the key considerations needed for further developing a unifying concept of agro-biodiversity hotspots that encompasses multiple facets of diversity (including genetic and phylogenetic) and the linkage with overall biodiversity. This integration will ultimately enhance our understanding of the geography of human-plant interactions and help guide the preservation of nature and its contributions to people.

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“…And more than a billion people living in urban areas globally face the challenges of intermittency and contamination of water supplies (Adane, Mengistie, Medhin, Kloos, & Mulat, ; Cinner et al, ; Elliott et al, ; McDonald et al, ; McDonald et al, ). A recent modeling analysis indicates that by 2050 up to 4.5 billion people globally will face water pollution and water shortages, with the worst impacts in Africa and South Asia (Chaplin‐Kramer et al, ). Fundamentally, because water insecurity intersects so acutely with poverty, the goal of access to sufficient safe water for all is not just viewed as a practical challenge to meet, but fundamental to basic human rights and sustainable development goal SDG 6.2.…”

Section: Toward a Human Biology Of Watermentioning

confidence: 99%