Global mortality risk assessment from river flooding under climate change

Abstract

Floods that cause yearly economic losses and casualties have increased in frequency with global warming. Assessing the mortality risks of populations due to flooding is important and necessary for risk management and disaster reduction. Thus, this paper develops a method for assessing global mortality risks due to river flooding. Global historical annual death tolls are first estimated during the historical period 1986–2005 (T0) by using available mortality vulnerability functions of river flooding. Then, the best vulnerability function is selected according to lower root mean square errors (RMSE) and the differences in the multi-year mean (DMYM) values. Next, the adjustment coefficient K c for each country (region) is calculated to use in the revision of the selected vulnerability function. Finally, the mortality risks are estimated based on an adjusted vulnerability function. As a case, the paper assessed and analysed the global mortality risks due to river flooding during 2016–2035 (2030s) and 2046–2065 (2050s) for the combined scenario of the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) and the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2 (SSP2), and the RCP8.5-SSP5 scenario. The results show that the estimation errors of the death tolls in most countries (regions) decrease after adjusting the vulnerability function. Under the current defense capacity and vulnerability level, the average annual death tolls of RCP4.5-SSP2 and RCP8.5-SSP5 in the 2030s will increase by 1.05 times and 0.93 times compared with the historical period. They will increase 1.89 and 2.20 times, respectively for the two scenarios during 2050s. High-risk areas are distributed in the south-eastern Eurasia.

Whole Watershed-based Estimation of FEWS Installation Site Using UAV Photogrammetry

“…그 후 HEC-RAS를 통해 해당 11지점 중 가장 작은 홍수량으로 제방을 범람하는 지점은 말골저수지 여수로로부터 하류 방향으로 464 m에 위치한 1. 서 론 최근들어서 기후변화로 인해 발생하는 극치강우로부터 홍수피해가 증가하는 실정이다 (Salman and Li, 2018;Zhang et al, 2021;Liu et al, 2023). 이에 대한 피해를 완화하기 위해 현재 기상청 예보를 통해 기상 상황을 전파하고는 있으나 자연재해로 인한 피해는 지속적으로 증가하고 있는 실정이다 (Lee et al, 2020;Hyun et al, 2022).…”

Effectiveness of a Dam-Breach Flood Alert in Mitigating Life Losses: A Spatiotemporal Sectorisation Analysis in a High-Density Urban Area in Brazil

“…The frequency of floods is increasing on a global scale, along with the number of people affected and the incurred fatalities [8]. However, the number of people impacted and fatalities per event show a decreasing trend [9,10].…”

Floods have become less deadly: an analysis of global flood fatalities 1975-2022

“…Some studies have focussed on global scale analysis of flood fatalities. Notably, fatalities from river floods have been analysed using insurance records (Jongman et al 2015) and public databases (Tanoue et al 2016;Zhang et al 2021). Studies focussed on global fatalities from inland (Jonkman 2005) and coastal floods (Bouwer and Jonkman 2018), or several aggregated flood types (Hu et al 2018).…”