This series is produced by the Macroeconomics, Trade, and Investment (MTI) Global Practice of the World Bank. The papers in this series aim to provide a vehicle for publishing preliminary results on MTI topics to encourage discussion and debate. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the author(s) and should not be attributed in any manner to the World Bank, to its affiliated organizations, or to members of its Board of Executive Directors or the countries they represent. Citation and the use of material presented in this series should take into account this provisional character.