Global nitrous oxide emissions from livestock manure during 1890–2020: An IPCC tier 2 inventory

Abstract

Nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from livestock manure contribute significantly to the growth of atmospheric N2O, a powerful greenhouse gas and dominant ozone‐depleting substance. Here, we estimate global N2O emissions from livestock manure during 1890–2020 using the tier 2 approach of the 2019 Refinement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines. Global N2O emissions from livestock manure increased by ~350% from 451 [368–556] Gg N year−1 in 1890 to 2042 [1677–2514] Gg N year−1 in 2020. These emissions contributed ~30% to the global anthropogenic N2O emissions in the decade 2010–2019. Cattle contributed the most (60%) to the increase, followed by poultry (19%), pigs (15%), and sheep and goats (6%). Regionally, South Asia, Africa, and Latin America dominated the growth in global emissions since the 1990s. Nationally, the largest emissions were found in India (329 Gg N year−1), followed by China (267 Gg N year−1), the United States (163 Gg N year−1), Brazil (129 Gg N year−1) and Pakistan (102 Gg N year−1) in the 2010s. We found a substantial impact of livestock productivity, specifically animal body weight and milk yield, on the emission trends. Furthermore, a large spread existed among different methodologies in estimates of global N2O emission from livestock manure, with our results 20%–25% lower than those based on the 2006 IPCC Guidelines. This study highlights the need for robust time‐variant model parameterization and continuous improvement of emissions factors to enhance the precision of emission inventories. Additionally, urgent mitigation is required, as all available inventories indicate a rapid increase in global N2O emissions from livestock manure in recent decades.

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“…Moreover, the consistently updated and peer-reviewed emission factors and calorific values ensure accuracy and reliability. Thus, the IPCC approach enhances the ability to monitor and compare emissions across different times and regions, providing a strong basis for policy analysis [47].…”