Global Patterns and Trends in Total Burden of Hepatitis B from 1990 to 2019 and Predictions to 2030

Abstract

Background and Aims Despite widespread vaccination against hepatitis B and availability of antiviral drugs, hepatitis B remained a major global public health problem. Therefore, an improved understanding of the burden of hepatitis B was required to help design strategies for global intervention. Methods Data on hepatitis B was collected by the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 database from 1990 to 2019. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR), mortality rates (ASMR) and disability-adjusted life year rates (ASDR) for hepatitis B were extracted from GBD 2019 and stratified by age, level of regionals and country. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) of ASIR, ASMR and ASDR were calculated to quantify the temporal trends in hepatitis B. Results Globally, ASIR showed a continuous downward trend, from 1552.2 in 1990 to 1010.0 per 100,000 persons in 2019, with an annual decrease of 1.52% (95% CI −1.66--1.38). ASMR showed a persistent decline, declining by nearly half in 2019 compared to 1990 (6.7 vs 12.4 per 100,000 persons), with an annual decrease of 2.55% (95% CI −2.74--2.35). ASDR showed a continuing downward trend, and the EAPC was −2.55% (95% CI −2.74--2.35). This decreasing pattern was heterogeneous across regions and countries. Hepatitis B related deaths increased significantly in high socio-demographic index countries such as UK, USA, and Canada. The ARIMA model estimates a 36.14% and 6.00% decrease in ASIR and ASMR, respectively, by 2030 compared to 2015. Conclusion Global hepatitis B morbidity and mortality rates decreased significantly from 1990 to 2019, but with a high degree of heterogeneity among regions and countries. It was still far from achieving the WHO goal of elimination of viral hepatitis by 2030, especially mortality rate.

Seroprevalence Study of Anti-HBs Antibodies in the General Population of Vojvodina, Serbia

“…A declining incidence trend of HB is noticeable in other European countries and globally [ 33 , 34 , 35 , 36 , 37 , 38 , 39 , 40 ]. Similarly, a declining incidence rate of acute HB in Vojvodina was observed between 1978 and 2016 in APV.…”

Peptic ulcer disease burden, trends, and inequalities in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a population-based study

“…Moreover, we calculated the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of ASIR, ASDR, and ASMR, which is a method using a regression model to describe ASR, and it quantitatively calculates the average annual rate of change of ASR over a specific time interval. Meanwhile, we explored the correlation (Pearson correlation coefficient) 10 between EAPC and ASIR, ASDR, and ASMR. A linear regression was used to estimate the natural logarithm of the rates; the equation 11 is Y = α + β X + ε , where Y = ln (ASR) and X = calendar year.…”

Temporal trend analysis of acute hepatitis B virus infection in China, 1990–2019

“…The limitations of this study should be acknowledged before interpreting the results. First, the data used in our study came from acute hepatitis B data in the GBD 2019 study, which had varying sources and potential compatibility issues that may lead to bias [ 14 , 25 ]. Second, the age–period–cohort analysis using the IE method is classified as an ecological study, limiting our ability to draw causal inferences.…”

“…Current research on AHBV infections in China has primarily employed classical time-series models [ 13 , 14 ], and a limited number of studies have explored joinpoint regression models [ 15 ] and age–period–cohort models [ 16 ]. However, these studies often lack detailed segmentation across specific age groups and do not fully explore the policy implications of AHBV infection trends.…”