Global peatland area and carbon dynamics from the Last Glacial Maximum to the present – a process-based model investigation

Müller, Jurek; Joos, Fortunat

doi:10.5194/bg-17-5285-2020

Cited by 27 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 116 publications

(223 reference statements)

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“…The spread between simulations forced with climate anomalies from the different CMIP6 climate models indicates a large climate anomaly related uncertainty in simulated peatland variables. This is in line with previous studies that also found a large uncertainty propagation from climate variables to peatland and carbon cycle variables in general (Stocker et al, 2013;Ahlström et al, 2017;Qiu et al, 2020;Müller and Joos, 2020).…”

Section: Climate Forcing Uncertaintysupporting

confidence: 93%

“…The dynamic global vegetation model LPX-Bern was used to estimate committed and projected mid to long term future changes of global peatland area and carbon under three different climate and land-use scenarios. A previously published transient simulation from the Last Glacial Maximum to the present (Müller and Joos, 2020) was used as the starting point for the future projections, accounting for the transient history and potential legacy effects of today's and former peatlands. LPX-Bern was forced by climate anomalies from ten different CIMIP6 earth system models, selected to optimally represent the full CIMIP6 ensemble range.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Throughout the 22,000 years of the transient simulation up to the year 1975, peatland area was highly dynamic with today's peatlands gradually expanding, but also large paleo peatlands vanishing over time (Müller and Joos, 2020). There, similarly 10 as described in section 2.2, the carbon from former peatlands was tracked through subsequent land classes until its decay.…”

Section: Present Day Model Statementioning

confidence: 92%

“…The simulations presented here are a direct continuation of a transient simulation from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the present, which was discussed in detail in Müller and Joos (2020). This enables future projections starting from a truly transient spinup, including all potential legacy effects of the past 22,000 years.…”

Section: Simulation Setupmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Unlike the original LGM simulation in Müller and Joos (2020), here land-use and land-use change is considered since the year 1500, with land-use areas being able to expand onto peatlands (see Sect. 2.3).…”

Section: Present Day Model Statementioning

confidence: 99%

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Global peatlands under future climate – seamless model projections from the Last Glacial Maximum

Müller

Joos

2021

Preprint

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Abstract. Peatlands are diverse wetland ecosystems distributed mostly over the northern latitudes and tropics. Globally they store a large portion of the global soil organic carbon and provide important ecosystem services. The future of these systems under continued anthropogenic warming and direct human disturbance has potentially large impacts on atmospheric CO2 and climate. We performed global long term projections of peatland area and carbon over the next 5000 years using a dynamic global vegetation model forced with climate anomalies from ten models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and three scenarios. These projections are continued from a transient simulation from the Last Glacial Maximum to the present to account for the full transient history. Our results suggest short to long term net losses of global peatland area and carbon, with higher losses under higher emission scenarios. Large parts of today's active northern peatlands are at risk. Conditions for peatlands in the tropics and, in case of mitigation, eastern Asia and western north America improve. Factorial simulations reveal committed historical changes and future rising temperature as the main driver of future peatland loss and increasing precipitations as driver for regional peatland expansion. Additional simulations forced with two CMIP6 scenarios extended transiently beyond 2100, show qualitatively similar results to the standard scenarios, but highlight the importance of extended future scenarios for long term carbon cycle projections. The spread between simulations forced with different climate model anomalies suggests a large uncertainty in projected peatland variables due to uncertain climate forcing. Our study highlights the importance of quantifying the future peatland feedback to the climate system and its inclusion into future earth system model projections.

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Section: Climate Forcing Uncertaintysupporting

confidence: 93%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Present Day Model Statementioning

confidence: 92%

Section: Simulation Setupmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Present Day Model Statementioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Global peatlands under future climate – seamless model projections from the Last Glacial Maximum

Müller

Joos

2021

Preprint

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The seasonal cycle of δ13C of atmospheric carbon dioxide: Influences of land and ocean carbon fluxes and drivers.

Lienert

Zaehle

Joos

2022

Preprint

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In situ measurements of the seasonal cycle of δ13C(CO2) provide complementary information on the seasonality of the global carbon cycle, but are currently not exploited in the context of process-based carbon cycle models. We use isotope-enabled simulations of the Bern3D-LPX Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity and fossil fuel emission estimates together with a model of atmospheric transport to simulate local atmospheric δ13C(CO2). We find good agreement between the measured and simulated seasonal cycle of atmospheric δ13C(CO2) (mean seasonal amplitude mismatch of 0.02 northern latitude sites. Factorial simulations reveal that the seasonal cycle of δ13C(CO2) is primarily driven by land biosphere carbon exchange.Spatial and temporal fluxes of CO2 and their signatures are analyzed to quantify the terrestrial drivers. The influence of external forcings (climate and land use change) on seasonal amplitude is found to be small. Unlike the growth of seasonal amplitude of CO2, no consistent change in seasonal amplitude of δ13C(CO2) is simulated over the historical period, nor evident in the available observations. We conclude that the seasonal cycle of δ13C(CO2) is influenced by different carbon cycle processes, and its potential as a novel atmospheric constraint should be further explored.

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Six Decades of Changes in Pool Characteristics on a Concentric-Patterned Raised Bog

Colson,

Morris,

Smith

et al. 2023

Ecosystems

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Raised bogs are wetland ecosystems which, under the right climatic conditions, feature patterns of pool hollows and hummock ridges. The relative cover and the spatial arrangement of pool and ridge microforms are thought to be influential on peatland atmosphere carbon gas fluxes and plant biodiversity. The mechanisms responsible for the formation and maintenance of pools, and the stability of these features in response to warming climates, remain topics of ongoing research. We employed historical aerial imagery, combined with a contemporary uncrewed aerial vehicle survey, to study 61 years of changes in pools at a patterned raised bog in central Sweden. We used a pool inheritance method to track individual pools between image acquisition dates throughout the time series. These data show a rapid loss of open-water pool area during the study period, primarily due to overgrowth of open-water pools by Sphagnum. We postulate that these changes are driven by ongoing climate warming that is accelerating Sphagnum colonisation. Open-water pool area declined by 26.8% during the study period, equivalent to a loss of 1001 m2 y−1 across the 150-hectare site. This is contradictory to an existing theory that states pools are highly stable, once formed, and can only convert to a terrestrial state through catastrophic drainage. The pool inheritance analysis shows that smaller pools are liable to become completely terrestrialised and expire. Our findings form part of a growing body of evidence for the loss of open-water habitats in peatlands across the boreal and elsewhere.

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Global peatland area and carbon dynamics from the Last Glacial Maximum to the present – a process-based model investigation

Cited by 27 publications

References 116 publications

Global peatlands under future climate – seamless model projections from the Last Glacial Maximum

Global peatlands under future climate – seamless model projections from the Last Glacial Maximum

The seasonal cycle of δ13C of atmospheric carbon dioxide: Influences of land and ocean carbon fluxes and drivers.

Six Decades of Changes in Pool Characteristics on a Concentric-Patterned Raised Bog

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