Global perceptions of local temperature change

Howe, Peter D.; Markowitz, Ezra M.; Lee, Tien Ming; Ko, Chia‐Ying; Leiserowitz, Anthony

doi:10.1038/nclimate1768

Cited by 227 publications

(141 citation statements)

References 26 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

128

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

mentioning

confidence: 76%

“…Furthermore, the anomalies are not compared with natural variability, and therefore, they are moot about their probability. As such, these anomalies do not proxy changes in climate, which suggests that poor heuristics could bias previous results regarding the effect of experiential learning on the degree to which the public accepts climate change (3,14,18,(20)(21)(22).To evaluate how the spatial heterogeneity of climate change affects the public's willingness to accept scientific results that the climate is changing, we propose an index that accurately measures local changes in climate based on the number of days per year for which the year of the record high temperature is more recent than the year of the record low temperature. The index (23) is calculated as follows:…”

mentioning

confidence: 78%

“…Previous analyses calculate climate heuristics by comparing temperature during a given day (14,15), week (16), season (3,17,18), or year(s) (19,20) with a long-run average for the corresponding period and classifying this anomaly as either warmer or cooler than average. However, these daily, weekly, seasonal, or annual differences from the mean do not represent a change in climate, which is a change in the long-run weather means.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Spatial heterogeneity of climate change as an experiential basis for skepticism

Kaufmann

Mann

Gopal

et al. 2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

We postulate that skepticism about climate change is partially caused by the spatial heterogeneity of climate change, which exposes experiential learners to climate heuristics that differ from the global average. This hypothesis is tested by formalizing an index that measures local changes in climate using station data and comparing this index with survey-based model estimates of county-level opinion about whether global warming is happening. Results indicate that more stations exhibit cooling and warming than predicted by random chance and that spatial variations in these changes can account for spatial variations in the percentage of the population that believes that "global warming is happening." This effect is diminished in areas that have experienced more record low temperatures than record highs since 2005. Together, these results suggest that skepticism about climate change is driven partially by personal experiences; an accurate heuristic for local changes in climate identifies obstacles to communicating ongoing changes in climate to the public and how these communications might be improved.climate change | climate skepticism | experiential learning | recency weighting | local climate D espite overwhelming scientific evidence, a significant fraction of the US population does not believe that climate is changing as proxied by a general warming, (1, 2), which we term skepticism. This skepticism is likely caused by many reasons, including two psychological phenomena: climate change is hard to perceive via everyday experience, and climate change is ancillary to everyday concerns (3-6). Under these conditions, experiential learning tends to be more powerful than statistical results (4, 7-10).Here, we test the hypothesis that skepticism about climate change is partially caused by variations in the direction (warming or cooling) and magnitude of climate change over space (herein spatial heterogeneity), which expose experiential learners to climate heuristics that differ from the global average, by formalizing a simple index that measures local changes in climate and comparing this index with survey-based model estimates of countylevel opinion about whether global warming is happening (1). Beyond the predictable impact of demographic factors (11-13), our results indicate that the index for local changes in climate (which may proxy an individual's climate experience) can account for a significant fraction of county-level variations in the percentage of the population that believes that "global warming is happening." These results are tempered by our finding that belief is shaped by more recent experiences. Specifically, belief is diminished by record low temperatures since 2005. Together, these results suggest that skepticism about climate change is driven partially by personal experiences; an accurate heuristic for local changes in climate identifies obstacles to and potential solutions for communicating ongoing changes in climate to the public.Previous analyses calculate climate heuristics by comparing temperat...

show abstract

mentioning

confidence: 76%

mentioning

confidence: 78%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Spatial heterogeneity of climate change as an experiential basis for skepticism

Kaufmann

Mann

Gopal

et al. 2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Recent studies, however, find evidence that people's personal experience of natural hazards or climate change 2 are related to their attitude on climate change and climate policy (e.g., Akerlofa et al 2013;Donner and McDaniels 2013;Hamilton and Keim 2009;Howe et al 2013;Leiserowitz 2006;Myers et al 2013;Spence et al 2011Spence et al , 2012Weber 2010). Spence et al (2011), for example, find that those who have experienced flooding express more concern over climate change and that this translates into a 1 There is some evidence for risk denial when facing natural hazards.…”

Section: Natural Hazards Climate Change and Perceptionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change, natural hazards, and risk perception: the role of proximity and personal experience

2014

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Understanding public risk perception related to possible consequences of climate change is of paramount importance. Not only does risk perception have an important role in shaping climate policy, it is also central in generating support for initiatives for adaptation and mitigation. In order to influence public knowledge and opinion, there is a need to know more about why people have diverging attitudes and perceptions related to climate change and its possible consequences. By using representative survey data for Norway and multivariate analysis, the authors of this article show that differences in attitudes and perceptions are partially explained by factors such as gender, educational background, and people's political preferences. However, an important factor

show abstract

“…In practice, modelling setups will almost always use a combination of mechanistic and empirical components (e.g. Rodó et al 2013;Zwiers and von Storch 2004): mechanistic hydrological models nevertheless represent small-scale processes through largely empirical means, for instance, while the selection of the institutions and beliefs to consider in an empirical study of the effects of climate change on societies will have involved some mechanistic understanding of what might be worthy of investigation (Ruddell et al 2012;Howe et al 2012).…”

Section: Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The challenge to detect and attribute effects of climate change on human and natural systems

et al. 2013

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Anthropogenic climate change has triggered impacts on natural and human systems world-wide, yet the formal scientific method of detection and attribution has been only insufficiently described. Detection and attribution of impacts of climate change is a fundamentally cross-disciplinary issue, involving concepts, terms, and standards spanning the varied requirements of the various disciplines. Key problems for current assessments include the limited availability of long-term observations, the limited knowledge on processes and mechanisms involved in changing environmental systems, and the widely different concepts applied in the scientific literature. In order to facilitate current and future assessments, this paper describes the current conceptual framework of the field and outlines a number of conceptual challenges. Based on this, it proposes workable cross-disciplinary definitions, concepts, and standards. The paper is specifically intended to serve as a baseline for continued development of a consistent cross-disciplinary framework that will facilitate integrated assessment of the detection and attribution of climate change impacts.

show abstract

Global perceptions of local temperature change

Cited by 227 publications

References 26 publications

Spatial heterogeneity of climate change as an experiential basis for skepticism

Spatial heterogeneity of climate change as an experiential basis for skepticism

Climate change, natural hazards, and risk perception: the role of proximity and personal experience

The challenge to detect and attribute effects of climate change on human and natural systems

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About