Global polycrisis: the causal mechanisms of crisis entanglement

Abstract

Multiple global crisesincluding the pandemic, climate change, and Russia's war on Ukraine have recently linked together in ways that are significant in scope, devastating in effect, but poorly understood. A growing number of scholars and policymakers characterize the situation as a 'polycrisis'. Yet this neologism remains poorly defined. We provide the concept with a substantive definition, highlight its value-added in comparison to related concepts, and develop a theoretical framework to explain the causal mechanisms currently entangling many of the world's crises. In this framework, a global crisis arises when one or more fastmoving trigger events combine with slow-moving stresses to push a global system out of its established equilibrium and into a volatile and harmful state of disequilibrium. We then identify three causal pathwayscommon stresses, domino effects, and inter-systemic feedbacksthat can connect multiple global systems to produce synchronized crises. Drawing on current examples, we show that the polycrisis concept is a valuable tool for understanding ongoing crises, generating actionable insights, and opening avenues for future research. Non-technical summary. The term 'polycrisis' appears with growing frequently to capture the interconnections between global crises, but the word lacks substantive content. In this article, we convert it from an empty buzzword into a conceptual framework and research program that enables us to better understand the causal linkages between contemporary crises. We draw upon the intersection of climate change, the covid-19 pandemic, and Russia's war in Ukraine to illustrate these causal interconnections and explore key features of the world's present polycrisis. Technical summary. Multiple global crisesincluding the pandemic, climate change, and Russia's war on Ukrainehave recently linked together in ways that are significant in scope, devastating in effect, but poorly understood. A growing number of scholars and policymakers characterize the situation as a 'polycrisis'. Yet this neologism remains poorly defined. We provide the concept with a substantive definition, highlight its value-added in comparison to related concepts, and develop a theoretical framework to explain the causal mechanisms currently entangling many of the world's crises. In this framework, a global crisis arises when one or more fast-moving trigger events combines with slow-moving stresses to push a global system out of its established equilibrium and into a volatile and harmful state of disequilibrium. We then identify three causal pathwayscommon stresses, domino effects, and inter-systemic feedbacksthat can connect multiple global systems to produce synchronized crises. Drawing on current examples, we show that the polycrisis concept is a valuable tool for understanding ongoing crises, generating actionable insights, and opening avenues for future research. Social media summary. No longer a mere buzzword, the 'polycrisis' concept highlights causal interactions among crises to help navigate a tumu...

Young adults from disadvantaged groups experience more stress and deterioration in mental health associated with polycrisis

“…It may be interpreted as initial evidence for the polycrisis being associated with cumulative stress constituted by interrelated stressors, and not only a potential source of several distinct stressors. In the scholarship on crises, it is argued that various concurrent global and local crises interact and reinforce each other; their emergent character constitutes a polycrisis and calls for special measures 4 . Consequently, the psychological response to this situation can be constituted by interacting and mutually reinforcing stressors, in contrast to single stressors induced by individual crises.…”

“…A recent communication from the European Commission on a comprehensive approach to mental health warns that Europe has been witnessing an unprecedented mental health deterioration among young people 16 . The responsibility for global crises in recent years has been ascribed particularly to the COVID-19 pandemic; displacement and trauma resulting from the war in Ukraine; alarming vision of climate change; and poverty, inequalities, and social exclusion 4 , 6 , 12 , 16 . Despite the relatively high resources invested in mental healthcare and the availability of mental health services in Europe, mental health conditions remain a significant burden for young people in this region, where suicide has become the second most prevalent cause of death in this age group 16 , 17 .…”

“…Furthermore, various current global and regional crises are constantly interacting with the climate crisis, and the burdens they may cause not only interact but also cumulate 2 – 5 , 12 . Consequently, the term polycrisis has been coined and used in this context to emphasize the interconnectedness of these crises 4 , 6 . Therefore, they should not be considered in isolation when their consequences on mental health and stress are discussed 12 , 29 .…”

“…The well-established notion of cumulative stress incorporates a significant role of environmental stressors (including those related to crises) alongside individual stressors and predispositions 30 – 34 . The current polycrisis may serve as a case study that helps understand future pandemics, social and economic troubles, civil and armed conflicts, and the mass migration expected to occur in the future due to the deepening climate crisis 4 .…”

Local social-ecological context explains seasonal rural-rural migration of the poorest in south-west Bangladesh

“…Attributing local environmental changes solely to climate change is a misinterpretation and an oversimplification of this social-ecological system [4] and climate migration [21] and obliterates other changes at different scales. The resulting complexity of this "polycrisis" [79,80] lies in the interconnected effects of direct and indirect climate-induced and other global and local changes, which increase local inequalities and vulnerabilities [4,12,13]. In the current context of brackish shrimp farming development,…”