Global population‐weighted degree‐day projections for a combination of climate and socio‐economic scenarios

Abstract

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Potential changes in cooling degree day under different global warming levels and shared socioeconomic pathways in West Africa

“…The projected future increase in CDD exceeds in all scenarios at least +120 • Cday (while +140 • Cday in RCP8.5) annually as compared to past period mean. The results obtained are in line with the study of Deroubaix et al (2021) who are taking a Tbase of 22 • C showing a projected future increase exceeding +300 CDD in large parts of the tropics, and exceeding +400 CDD in Amazonia, including the Sahel, as in Spinoni et al (2021).…”

“…In accordance to recent studies (Shi et al 2018, Spinoni et al 2021, CDD projections with and without considering population differs spatially as well as quantitatively. The spatial distribution of CDD weighted with population is much more pronounced in agglomerated areas with high population density.…”

Climate Change and Weather Extremes in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East

“…Natural proxies are also sensitive to multiple and interacting parameters (e.g., precipitation, soil moisture, air or sea surface temperature, sea‐level changes, water circulation, and pH), and the length of their records vary. Apart from natural proxies, there is a wealth of textual evidence from the Mediterranean covering the past centuries (Haldon et al., 2014; Izdebski, Holmgren, et al., 2016; Izdebski, Pickett 2016; Labuhn et al., 2019; Luterbacher et al., 2012, 2022; Newfield et al., 2022; Xoplaki et al., 2016, 2018, 2021) which supports the reconstruction of historical weather and climate conditions, including extreme events and their potential societal impacts. The EMME region offers a relatively dense network of natural archives and documentary evidence covering the past 1,000–2,000 years with a strong bias toward hydrological changes.…”

“…In terms of economic damage and fatalities, this storm was the biggest natural disaster in the history of Oman (Fritz et al., 2010). Future high‐impact events may include unprecedented extreme heatwaves (Lelieveld et al., 2016; Zittis, Hadjinicolaou, et al., 2021), more prolonged and severe droughts (Spinoni et al., 2020, 2021), as well as compound extreme events of great societal impact (Hochman et al., 2022).…”

Population-weighted degree-days: The global shift between heating and cooling

“…The base temperatures used for the 2 m height temperature index, for both CDDs and HDDs, were 15.6 °C, 18.3 °C and 21.1 °C (60°F, 65°F and 70°F respectively). Spinoni et al [20] produced projections for population-weighted degree-days under different development scenarios, finding that population weighting means the increase in CDDs outbalances the decrease in HDDs as temperatures increase, under almost all future projections. However, analysis by Deroubaix et al [21] of projections in heating and cooling trends under climate change point to substantial uncertainties.…”