Global prediction of gross primary productivity under future climate change

Lu, Qikai; Liu, Hui; Wei, Lifei; Zhong, Yanfei; Zhou, Zheng

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.169239

Cited by 9 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 94 publications

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“…The results of this study showed that the mean GPP of vegetation in the tropics exhibited an increasing trend from 2001 to 2020. Among them, the tropical regions located near the equator had the highest GPP, with GPP unit area estimates exceeding 2000 g•cm −2 year −1 , which is consistent with what has been reported so far [16,17,46]. et al showed that GPP increased by 3.9% per decade.…”

Section: Overall Increasing Trend In Tropical Gppsupporting

confidence: 89%

“…The largest increase is in the southern part of the Amazon rainforest in the tropics, with an increase of 5 g•cm −2 year −1 [15]. Among these regions, the low-latitude tropical region near the equator has the highest GPP, with GPP per unit area exceeding 2000 g•cm −2 year −1 [16,17]. Overall, the regions with increasing trends of GPP in the tropics are mainly north of the equator, while the regions with decreasing trends are mainly south of the equator.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Climate change: It has been proposed that the impact of CO 2 on GPP in the tropics may be offset by the effects of climate-related changes. Globally, abundant rainfall and sunlight favor vegetation growth and increases in GPP [17,22]. However, different regions in the tropics also have different temperature and rainfall patterns, which may lead to different carbon cycle responses; further analysis is therefore required to determine the impact of these changes on GPP in specific regions [27].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Spatiotemporal Evolution and Impact Mechanisms of Gross Primary Productivity in Tropics

Chen,

Zhang,

Guo

et al. 2024

Forests

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Gross primary productivity (GPP), representing organic carbon fixation through photosynthesis, is crucial for developing science-based strategies for sustainable development. Given that the tropical region harbors nearly half of all species, it plays a pivotal role in safeguarding the global environment against climate change and preserving global biodiversity. Thus, investigating changes in vegetation productivity within this region holds substantial practical importance for estimating global vegetation productivity. In this study, we employed an enhanced P model to estimate vegetation GPP in the tropical region from 2001 to 2020, based on which we quantified the spatiotemporal changes and associated mechanisms. The results reveal that the annual mean GPP in the tropical region ranged from 2603.9 to 2757.1 g·cm−2 a−1, demonstrating an overall apparent increasing trend. Inland areas were mainly influenced by precipitation, while coastal areas were primarily influenced by temperature. Land cover changes, especially conversion to cropland, significantly influence GPP, with deciduous—evergreen forest transitions causing notable decreases. Climate change emerges as the dominant factor affecting GPP, as indicated by the contribution rate analysis. This research interprets the spatiotemporal pattern and mechanisms of GPP in the tropics, offering valuable insights for sustainable ecosystem management.

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Section: Overall Increasing Trend In Tropical Gppsupporting

confidence: 89%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Spatiotemporal Evolution and Impact Mechanisms of Gross Primary Productivity in Tropics

Chen,

Zhang,

Guo

et al. 2024

Forests

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“…In October, most regions of China witnessed an increase in GPP, accounting for approximately 70% of the study area; however, this does not hold true for southern China under both SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios. The reduction of GPP in southern China during October is consistent with the results projected by a machine learning method [45] and might be caused by the rising VPD in this region as shown in Figure S1 and discussed in Section 3.3 because extremely high VPD inhibits photosynthesis through closing plants' stomata [46].…”

Section: Spatial Distribution Characteristics Of the Projected Terres...supporting

confidence: 84%

Enhancement of the Vegetation Carbon Uptake by the Synergistic Approach to Air Pollution Control and Carbon Neutrality in China

Qin,

Shi,

Yang

2024

Atmosphere

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Carbon sinks provided by land ecosystems play a crucial role in achieving carbon neutrality. However, the future potential of carbon sequestration remains highly uncertain. The impact of pollutant emission reduction (PER) introduced by the proposed synergistic approach to air pollution control and carbon neutrality on carbon sinks in China has not yet been fully evaluated. In this study, we analyzed the effects of regional carbon-neutral PER policies, global climate change, and their coupled effects on China’s terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP) by conducting numerical experiments using the weather research and forecasting model coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem) and the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer photosynthesis algorithm (MODIS-PSN). We found that carbon-neutral PER policies could promote GPP growth in most regions of China in 2060, particularly during April and October, resulting in a total increase of at least 21.84 TgC compared to that in 2016, which offset the adverse effects of global climate change up to fourfold. The aerosol radiative effects drive GPP growth under carbon-neutral PER policies, primarily through an increase in daily minimum temperature during winter and an increase in shortwave radiation during other seasons. Our research highlights that reducing pollutant emissions enhances future potential for carbon sequestration, revealing positive feedback towards achieving the target of carbon neutrality.

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“…Understanding its changes across space and time is crucial in understanding our changing planet, as it is the largest component of the global carbon budget [1]. GPP has been increasing across much of the globe due, in large part, to global greening [2,3] and CO2 fertilization [4], and it is predicted to increase further throughout the 21st century [5]. Simultaneously, water limitation is playing an increasing role in controlling GPP at interannual to decadal time scales [6], often dampening its response to otherwise favorable climatic conditions [7].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal Variability of Gross Primary Productivity in Türkiye: A Multi-Source and Multi-Method Assessment

Başakın,

Stoy,

Demirel

et al. 2024

Remote Sensing

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We investigated the spatiotemporal variability of remotely sensed gross primary productivity (GPP) over Türkiye based on MODIS, TL-LUE, GOSIF, MuSyQ, and PMLV2 GPP products. The differences in various GPP products were assessed using Kruskal–Wallis and Mann–Whitney U methods, and long-term trends were analyzed using Modified Mann–Kendall (MMK), innovative trend analysis (ITA), and empirical mode decomposition (EMD). Our results show that at least one GPP product significantly differs from the others over the seven geographic regions of Türkiye (χ2 values of 50.8, 21.9, 76.9, 42.6, 149, 34.5, and 168; p < 0.05), and trend analyses reveal a significant increase in GPP from all satellite-based products over the latter half of the study period. Throughout the year, the average number of months in which each dataset showed significant increases across all study regions are 6.7, 8.1, 5.9, 9.6, and 8.7 for MODIS, TL-LUE, GOSIF, MuSyQ, and PMLV2, respectively. The ITA and EMD methods provided additional insight into the MMK test in both visualizing and detecting trends due to their graphical techniques. Overall, the GPP products investigated here suggest ‘greening’ for Türkiye, consistent with the findings from global studies, but the use of different statistical approaches and satellite-based GPP estimates creates different interpretations of how these trends have emerged. Ground stations, such as eddy covariance towers, can help further improve our understanding of the carbon cycle across the diverse ecosystem of Türkiye.

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Global prediction of gross primary productivity under future climate change

Cited by 9 publications

References 94 publications

Spatiotemporal Evolution and Impact Mechanisms of Gross Primary Productivity in Tropics

Spatiotemporal Evolution and Impact Mechanisms of Gross Primary Productivity in Tropics

Enhancement of the Vegetation Carbon Uptake by the Synergistic Approach to Air Pollution Control and Carbon Neutrality in China

Spatiotemporal Variability of Gross Primary Productivity in Türkiye: A Multi-Source and Multi-Method Assessment

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