Global probabilistic projections of extreme sea levels show intensification of coastal flood hazard

Vousdoukas, Michalis; Mentaschi, Lorenzo; Voukouvalas, Evangelos; Verlaan, Martin; Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Jackson, Luke; Feyen, Luc

doi:10.1038/s41467-018-04692-w

Cited by 528 publications

(599 citation statements)

References 62 publications

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“…The modular framework aims to assess weather-related impacts in coastal areas in present and future climates by combining state-of-the-art large-scale modelling and datasets of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability ( Fig. 1) (Vousdoukas et al, 2018a). The present application focusses on direct, tangible losses from flooding by seawater, which typically dominates total impacts when expressed in economic terms.…”

Section: The Liscoast Methodsologymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The coastline features extensive tourist and recreational uses and a large number of exposed assets, contributing around 10 % of the total flood damage for Europe (Vousdoukas et al, 2018a).…”

Section: Case Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Large-scale flood risk assessments have emerged during the last decade, with multiple continental or global studies focussing on fluvial risks Dottori et al, 2016bDottori et al, , 2017 and fewer on coastal losses (Hinkel et al, 2014;Hallegatte et al, 2013;Vousdoukas et al, 2018a). The emergence of these assessments comes as a response to the growing demand for upscaled flood risk estimation under present and future scenarios.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Efforts to present consistent flood protection information for large scales have appeared only recently and are limited to fluvial cases (Scussolini et al, 2016). In coastal settings, information on flood protection remains sparse and heterogeneous, despite recent contributions in multi-case data collection (Jonkman et al, 2013;Vousdoukas et al, 2018a).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the light of this background, we develop an analytical framework that treats multiple sources of epistemic uncertainty within a large-scale coastal flood risk (CFR), LISCoAsT: a modular, integrated coastal flood risk assessment framework developed by the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission (Vousdoukas et al, 2018a). The analysed factors include (i) the components contributing to extreme sea levels (ESLs), presently focussing on waves and tides; (ii) different algorithms for inundation mapping; (iii) digital elevation model (DEM) data; (iv) coastal flood protection information; (v) vulnerability assumptions; and (vi) different climate change projections.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Understanding epistemic uncertainty in large-scale coastal flood risk assessment for present and future climates

Vousdoukas

Bouziotas

Giardino

et al. 2018

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. An upscaling of flood risk assessment frameworks beyond regional and national scales has taken place during recent years, with a number of large-scale models emerging as tools for hotspot identification, support for international policymaking, and harmonization of climate change adaptation strategies. There is, however, limited insight into the scaling effects and structural limitations of flood risk models and, therefore, the underlying uncertainty. In light of this, we examine key sources of epistemic uncertainty in the coastal flood risk (CFR) modelling chain: (i) the inclusion and interaction of different hydraulic components leading to extreme sea level (ESL), (ii) the underlying uncertainty in the digital elevation model (DEM), (iii) flood defence information, (iv) the assumptions behind the use of depth-damage functions that express vulnerability, and (v) different climate change projections. The impact of these uncertainties on estimated expected annual damage (EAD) for present and future climates is evaluated in a dual case study in Faro, Portugal, and on the Iberian Peninsula. The ranking of the uncertainty factors varies among the different case studies, baseline CFR estimates, and their absolute and relative changes. We find that uncertainty from ESL contributions, and in particular the way waves are treated, can be higher than the uncertainty of the two greenhouse gas emission projections and six climate models that are used. Of comparable importance is the quality of information on coastal protection levels and DEM information. In the absence of large datasets with sufficient resolution and accuracy, the latter two factors are the main bottlenecks in terms of large-scale CFR assessment quality.

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Section: The Liscoast Methodsologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Case Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Understanding epistemic uncertainty in large-scale coastal flood risk assessment for present and future climates

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et al. 2018

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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The importance of marshes providing soil stabilization to resist fast‐flow erosion in case of a dike breach

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Ecological Applications

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Salt marshes provide valuable ecosystem services including coastal protection by reducing wave loading on dikes and seawalls. If the topsoil is erosion resistant to fast-flowing water, it may also reduce breach depth if a dike fails. In this experiment, we quantified the topsoil erosion resistance from marshes and bare tidal flats with different soil types to understand the extent to which they can help reduce breach depth. Intact soil samples were collected from

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Predicting the distribution of potentially suitable habitat in China for Cirsium japonicum Fisch. ex DC. under future climate scenarios based on the R‐optimized MaxEnt model

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Cirsium japonicum contains a variety of medicinal components with good clinical efficacy. With the rapid changes in global climate, it is increasingly important to study the distribution of species habitats and the factors influencing their adaptability. Utilizing the MaxEnt model, we forecasted the present and future distribution regions of suitable habitats for C. japonicum under various climate scenarios. The outcome showed that under the current climate, the total suitable area of C. japonicum is 2,303,624 km2 and the highly suitable area is 79,117 km2. The distribution of C. japonicum is significantly influenced by key environmental factors such as temperature annual range, precipitation of the driest month, and precipitation of the wettest month. In light of future climate change, the suitable habitat for C. japonicum is anticipated to progressively relocate toward the western and northern regions, leading to an expansion in the total suitable area. These findings offer valuable insights into the conservation, sustainable utilization, and standardized cultivation of wild C. japonicum resources.

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Global probabilistic projections of extreme sea levels show intensification of coastal flood hazard

Cited by 528 publications

References 62 publications

Understanding epistemic uncertainty in large-scale coastal flood risk assessment for present and future climates

Understanding epistemic uncertainty in large-scale coastal flood risk assessment for present and future climates

The importance of marshes providing soil stabilization to resist fast‐flow erosion in case of a dike breach

Predicting the distribution of potentially suitable habitat in China for Cirsium japonicum Fisch. ex DC. under future climate scenarios based on the R‐optimized MaxEnt model

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