Global response of glacier runoff to twenty‐first century climate change

Bliss, Andrew; Hock, Regine; Radić, Valentina

doi:10.1002/2013jf002931

Cited by 275 publications

(238 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…As glaciers recede, the quantity of surface melt water first increases, then decreases depending on the balance between increasing rates of ice melt and decreasing glacier area [39]. To identify when a glacier's melt rate is no longer sufficient to compensate for loss of glacier area, we calculated the original rate (S 1 ) of glacier thickness change over a ten-year period (H 1 ),…”

Section: Identification Of Hydrologic Regime Changesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrologic Regime Changes in a High-Latitude Glacierized Watershed under Future Climate Conditions

Valentin

Hogue

Hay

2018

Water

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A calibrated conceptual glacio-hydrological monthly water balance model (MWBMglacier) was used to evaluate future changes in water partitioning in a high-latitude glacierized watershed in Southcentral Alaska under future climate conditions. The MWBMglacier was previously calibrated and evaluated against streamflow measurements, literature values of glacier mass balance change, and satellite-based observations of snow covered area, evapotranspiration, and total water storage. Output from five global climate models representing two future climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) was used with the previously calibrated parameters to drive the MWBMglacier at 2 km spatial resolution. Relative to the historical period 1949-2009, precipitation will increase and air temperature in the mountains will be above freezing for an additional two months per year by mid-century which significantly impacts snow/rain partitioning and the generation of meltwater from snow and glaciers. Analysis of the period 1949-2099 reveals that numerous hydrologic regime shifts already occurred or are projected to occur in the study area including glacier accumulation area, snow covered area, and forest vulnerability. By the end of the century, Copper River discharge is projected to increase by 48%, driven by 21% more precipitation and 53% more glacial melt water (RCP 8.5) relative to the historical period .

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Section: Identification Of Hydrologic Regime Changesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrologic Regime Changes in a High-Latitude Glacierized Watershed under Future Climate Conditions

Valentin

Hogue

Hay

2018

Water

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“…Additionally, the comparison will provide a test of our ability to reproduce past glacier variations using tools that are similar to the ones applied to estimate future changes in glaciers and their contribution to sea level rise (e.g. Marzeion et al, 2012Marzeion et al, , 2018Gregory et al, 2013;Bliss et al, 2014;Huss and Hock, 2015;Slangen et al, 2016). The initial focus here is on European glaciers and more specifically on the Alps because of the availability of records that are long enough for our analyses.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Testing the consistency between changes in simulated climate and Alpine glacier length over the past millennium

et al. 2018

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Abstract.It is standard to compare climate model results covering the past millennium and reconstructions based on various archives in order to test the ability of models to reproduce the observed climate variability. Up to now, glacier length fluctuations have not been used systematically in this framework even though they offer information on multidecadal to centennial variations complementary to other records. One reason is that glacier length depends on several complex factors and so cannot be directly linked to the simulated climate. However, climate model skill can be measured by comparing the glacier length computed by a glacier model driven by simulated temperature and precipitation to observed glacier length variations. This is done here using the version 1.0 of the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM) forced by fields derived from a range of simulations performed with global climate models over the past millennium. The glacier model is applied to a set of Alpine glaciers for which observations cover at least the 20th century. The observed glacier length fluctuations are generally well within the range of the simulations driven by the various climate model results, showing a general consistency with this ensemble of simulations. Sensitivity experiments indicate that the results are much more sensitive to the simulated climate than to OGGM parameters. This confirms that the simulations of glacier length can be used to evaluate the climate model performance, in particular the simulated summer temperatures that largely control the glacier changes in our region of interest. Simulated glacier length is strongly influenced by the internal variability in the system, putting limitations on the model-data comparison for some variables like the trends over the 20th century in the Alps. Nevertheless, comparison of glacier length fluctuations on longer timescales, for instance between the 18th century and the late 20th century, appear less influenced by the natural variability and indicate clear differences in the behaviour of the various climate models.

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“…For example, increasing air temperature in mountain areas accelerates glacial thawing leading to a dramatic increase in surface runoff like over the Tibetan Plateau Gao et al 2015) or the Andean chain (Bliss et al 2014;López-Moreno et al 2014). Meanwhile, the increasing air temperature also enhances evapotranspiration over the lake's watershed, therefore leading to diminished runoff.…”

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confidence: 99%

Lake Volume Monitoring from Space

Crétaux¹,

et al. 2016

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Lakes are integrators of environmental change occurring at both the regional and global scale. They present a wide range of behavior on a variety of timescales (cyclic and secular) depending on their morphology and climate conditions. Lakes play a crucial role in retaining and stocking water, and because of the significant global environmental changes occurring at several anthropocentric levels, the necessity to monitor all morphodynamic characteristics [e.g., water level, surface (water contour) and volume] has increased substantially. Satellite altimetry and imagery are now widely used together to calculate lake and reservoir water storage changes worldwide. However, strategies and algorithms to calculate these characteristics are not straightforward, and specific approaches need to be developed. We present a review of some of these methodologies by using lakes over the Tibetan Plateau to illustrate some critical aspects and issues (technical and scientific) linked to the observation of climate change impact on surface waters from remote sensing data. Many authors have measured water variation using the limited remote sensing measurements available over short time periods, even though the time series are probably too short to directly link these results with climate change. Indeed, there are many processes and factors, like the influence of lake morphology, that are beyond observation and are still uncertain. The time response for lakes to reach a new state of equilibrium is a key aspect that is often neglected in current literature. Observations over a long period of time, including maintaining a constellation of comprehensive and complementary satellite missions with service continuity over decades, are therefore necessary especially when the ground gauge network is too limited. In addition, the design of future satellite missions with new instrumental concepts (e.g., SAR, SARin, Ka band altimetry, Ka interferometry) will also be suitable for complete monitoring of continental waters.

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Global response of glacier runoff to twenty‐first century climate change

Cited by 275 publications

References 42 publications

Hydrologic Regime Changes in a High-Latitude Glacierized Watershed under Future Climate Conditions

Hydrologic Regime Changes in a High-Latitude Glacierized Watershed under Future Climate Conditions

Testing the consistency between changes in simulated climate and Alpine glacier length over the past millennium

Lake Volume Monitoring from Space

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