Global scale benefit-cost analysis of coastal flood adaptation to different flood risk drivers

Tiggeloven, Timothy; Moel, Hans de; Winsemius, Hessel; Eilander, Dirk; Erkens, Gilles; Gebremedhin, Eskedar; Loaiza, Andrés Díaz; Kuzma, Samantha; Luo, Tianyi; Iceland, Charles; Bouwman, Arno; Huijstee, Jolien van; Ligtvoet, W.; Ward, Philip

doi:10.5194/nhess-2019-330

Cited by 4 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…This study extends the coastal flood risk assessment framework developed by Tiggeloven et al (2020) to also include the effects of foreshore vegetation on global flood risk reduction. The latter is achieved using the approach of van Zelst et al (2021).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These benefits for conserving foreshore vegetation are estimated in the adaptation objective ‘Protection constant’, in which it is assumed that present‐day protection standards are kept the same in the future as the current protection standards. This section contains a brief description of the methods involved with the setup of the modelling framework, and is based on detailed descriptions by Tiggeloven et al (2020) and Ward et al (2020) for the modelling framework, and van Zelst et al (2021) for details on global wave attenuation by mangroves and salt marshes in coastal areas.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To simulate the reduction of flooding land inwards due to the limited time span of tides and storm surges, we included a resistance factor in the inundation routine similar to Vafeidis et al (2019). As input for the inundation model, we use extreme sea level values from the global tide and surge reanalysis (GTSR) dataset by Muis et al (2016) enriched with simulated tropical cyclones using the IBTrACS (International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship) archive, as described by Tiggeloven et al (2020). Future inundation is simulated using sea‐level rise to simulate future extreme sea levels and subsidence rates through groundwater extraction to estimate how the terrain may change.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Next to sea‐level rise, climate change is projected to lead to changes in flood hazard through changes in tides (Idier, Paris, Le Cozannet, Boulahya, & Dumas, 2017), surge levels (Little et al, 2015), extreme sea levels (Vousdoukas, Mentaschi, Voukouvalas, Verlaan, & Feyen, 2017) and wind‐wave climate (Hemer, Fan, Mori, Semedo, & Wang, 2013). These changes of flood hazard and exposure will lead to increases in global coastal flood risk (Hallegatte, Green, Nicholls, & Corfee‐Morlot, 2013; Hinkel et al, 2014; Neumann et al, 2015; Tiggeloven et al, 2020; Vousdoukas, Bouziotas, et al, 2018a; Vousdoukas, Mentaschi, et al, 2018b).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Lincke and Hinkel (2018) show that adaptation through structural adaptation measures is economically feasible for 13% of the global coastline, which accounts for 90% of the global population living in regions prone to coastal hazard. In addition, Hinkel et al (2014) show that the avoided damages of adaptation are much higher than the costs of adaptation and Tiggeloven et al (2020) show that adaptation through structural measures shows high potential to reduce (future) coastal flood risk. Instead of only focusing on structural adaptation measures, Jongman (2018) argues that flood risk management needs to adopt holistic strategies to adapt to climate change, such as early warning systems, risk perception, Nature‐based or hybrid solutions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 4 more Smart Citations

The benefits of coastal adaptation through conservation of foreshore vegetation

Tiggeloven

Moel

Zelst

et al. 2022

J Flood Risk Management

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Due to rising sea levels and projected socio-economic change, global coastal flood risk is expected to increase in the future. To reduce this increase in risk, one option is to reduce the probability or magnitude of the hazard through the implementation of structural, Nature-based or hybrid adaptation measures.Nature-based Solutions in coastal areas have the potential to reduce impacts of climate change and can provide a more sustainable and cost-effective alternative to structural measures. In this paper, we present the first global scale assessment of the benefits of conserving foreshore vegetation as a means of adaptation to future projections of change in coastal flood risk. In doing so, we extend the current knowledge on the economic feasibility of implementing global scale Nature-based Solutions. We show that globally foreshore vegetation can contribute to a large decrease in both absolute and relative flood risk (13% of present-day and 8.5% of future conditions in 2080 of global flood risk). Although this study gives a first proxy of the flood risk reduction benefits of conserving foreshore vegetation at the global scale, it shows promising results for including Nature-based and hybrid adaptation measures in coastal adaptation schemes.coastal, disaster risk reduction, flood damages, green infrastructure | INTRODUCTIONCoastal zones are attractive areas for human settlement and almost two-thirds of urban settlements with population higher than 5 million are at least partly located in coastal zones (McGranahan, Balk, & Anderson, 2016). Recent research shows that 1.3% of the global population lives in coastal zones that are exposed to one in a 100-year flooding event (Muis, Verlaan, Winsemius, Aerts, & Ward, 2016) and future population in coastal zones is expected to grow, increasing the exposure to coastal flooding (Neumann, Vafeidis, Zimmermann, & Nicholls, 2015). Next to this increase in exposure, coastal flood hazard will change through climate change and subsidence (Nicholls & Cazenave, 2010;Vousdoukas et al., 2018a;Vousdoukas et al., 2018b). Due to rising

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

The benefits of coastal adaptation through conservation of foreshore vegetation

Tiggeloven

Moel

Zelst

et al. 2022

J Flood Risk Management

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Addressing the climate adaptation tracking gap: an assessment method and its application to the Caribbean region

Laurent,

Duvat

2024

Reg Environ Change

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This article addresses the climate adaptation tracking gap. Indeed, we still ignore the intensity, nature, spatial distribution, effectiveness, and recent evolution of adaptation efforts at the national, regional, and global scales. We propose a web-based replicable assessment method using key variables to document adaptation efforts: country/territory, location, goal, implementation date, type of action, holder, funding source. Applying it to the Caribbean region, we analyzed 100 coastal adaptation actions. This studies the method while also highlighting the difficulties faced to track adaptation. We found that coastal adaptation efforts are substantial and increasing in the Caribbean, revealing the use of diversified adaptation actions; prevalence of hard protection (51%); increase use of Nature-based Solutions (22%); limited use of retreat (6%); and accommodation (2%). Combined actions (17%) increased over time, due to the failure of single actions and need to find tradeoffs between human asset protection encouraging hard protection and the maintenance of attractive tourist beaches encouraging beach nourishment. Puerto Rico and Trinidad and Tobago fall under the engineering-based “one-size-fits-all” adaptation model, whereas Jamaica and Barbados experiment diversified options and combinations of options. Jamaica, Puerto Rico, Trinidad and Tobago, and Barbados are particularly active in taking adaptation action, while most dependent islands and sub-national island jurisdictions have no adaptation action reported. Considering the advantages and limitations of a web-based method compared to a field-based approach, we recommend the combined use of these two complementary approaches to support adaptation tracking and help structuring communities of practice to the benefits of decision-makers and practitioners and scholars.

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Raising dikes and managed realignment may be insufficient for maintaining current flood risk along the German Baltic Sea coast

Kiesel,

Honsel,

Lorenz

et al. 2023

Commun Earth Environ

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Without upgrading existing adaptation, Germany is projected to be among those European countries that will suffer severe flood damages in 2100. Here we use a validated modeling framework to explore the effectiveness of two hypothetical upgrades to existing dike lines in reducing flood extent and population exposure along the German Baltic Sea coast. We perform a number of model runs where we increase the heights of existing dikes by 1.5 m, implement managed realignment as a nature-based solution, where physically plausible, and run a 200-year surge under two sea-level rise scenarios (1 and 1.5 m). We show that managed realignment is more effective in reducing future population exposure to coastal flooding compared to increasing dike heights. However, the maximum reduction in population exposure compared to a do-nothing approach amounts to only 26%, suggesting that even managed realignment is insufficient to maintain flood risk at today´s levels. The greatest potential for protecting people and property from future flooding lies in developing adaptation strategies for currently unprotected coastal sections.

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Global scale benefit-cost analysis of coastal flood adaptation to different flood risk drivers

Cited by 4 publications

References 47 publications

The benefits of coastal adaptation through conservation of foreshore vegetation

The benefits of coastal adaptation through conservation of foreshore vegetation

Addressing the climate adaptation tracking gap: an assessment method and its application to the Caribbean region

Raising dikes and managed realignment may be insufficient for maintaining current flood risk along the German Baltic Sea coast

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