Global Search for Autumn‐Lead Sea Surface Salinity Predictors of Winter Precipitation in Southwestern United States

Liu, Tianjia; Schmitt, Raymond W.; Li, Laifang

doi:10.1029/2018gl079293

Cited by 17 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 68 publications

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“…Teleconnections between SSS in certain oceanic regions and terrestrial rainfall one season later are likely due to the role of SSS as an indicator of the net moisture export from the ocean. Liu et al (2018) find that SSS is superior to SST and other traditional climate indices for autumn lead predictions of winter precipitation in the US Southwest. This is just one example of advances in sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting through the combined use of Artificial Intelligence tools and Bayesian statistical techniques applied to an expanding suite of ocean state variables.…”

Section: Improving Weather Forecasting On Sub-seasonal To Seasonal Timentioning

confidence: 76%

The Challenge of Sustaining Ocean Observations

et al. 2019

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Sustained ocean observations benefit many users and societal goals but could benefit many more. Such information is critical for using ocean resources responsibly and sustainably as the ocean becomes increasingly important to society. The contributions of many nations cooperating to develop the Global Ocean Observing System has resulted in a strong base of global and regional ocean observing networks. However, enhancement of the existing observation system has been constrained by flat funding and limited cooperation among present and potential users. At the same time, a variety of actors are seeking new deployments in remote and newly ice-free regions and new observing capabilities, including biological and biogeochemical sensors. Can these new needs be met? In this paper, a vision for how to sustain ocean observing in the future is presented. A key evolution will be to grow the pool of users, engaging end users across society. Users with shared values need to be brought together with commitment to sustainable use of the ocean in the broadest sense. Present planning for sustained observations builds on the development of the Global Ocean Observing System which has primarily targeted increased scientific understanding of ocean processes and of the ocean's role in climate. We must build on that foundation to develop an Ocean Partnership for Sustained Observing that will incorporate the growing needs of a broad constituency of users beyond climate and make the case for new resources. To be most effective this new Partnership should incorporate the principles of a collective impact organization, enabling closer engagement with the private sector, philanthropies, governments, NGOs, and other groups. Steps toward achieving this new Partnership are outlined in this paper, with the intent of establishing it early in the UN Decade of Ocean Science.

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Section: Improving Weather Forecasting On Sub-seasonal To Seasonal Timentioning

confidence: 76%

The Challenge of Sustaining Ocean Observations

et al. 2019

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“…Anomalously large water export leads to higher SSS, guaranteeing that some part of the climate system will experience more rain. Recent studies have found that seasonal anomalies in SSS in particular areas of the ocean have remarkable skill for predicting terrestrial rain in the next season in certain regions on land (Li et al 2016a(Li et al , b, 2018Liu et al 2018;Chen et al 2019). The SCS is an important moisture source of terrestrial rain over China.…”

Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In recent decades, the relationship between the subtropical North Atlantic water cycle and US summer precipitation pattern has become closer, allowing SSS to be used to predict extreme rainfall events . Liu et al (2018) searched globally for teleconnections between autumn-lead SSS and SST signals and winter precipitation over the southwestern United States and were able to explain 67% of the variations in winter precipitation. These new results on the use of ocean salinity for predicting seasonal rainfall, and the similar geography of China and the US in being west of their respective subtropical gyres, motivated us to examine the predictability of rainfall over China using SSS.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecast of summer precipitation in the Yangtze River Valley based on South China Sea springtime sea surface salinity

Zeng

Schmitt

et al. 2019

Clim Dyn

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As a major moisture source, the South China Sea (SCS) has a significant impact on the summer precipitation over China. The ocean-to-land moisture transport generates sea surface salinity (SSS) anomalies that can be used to predict summer precipitation on land. This study illustrates a high correlation between springtime SSS in the central SCS and summer precipitation over the middle and lower Yangtze River Valley (the YRV region). The linkage between spring SSS in the central SCS and summer YRV precipitation is established by ocean-to-land moisture transport by atmospheric processes and land-atmosphere soil moisture feedback. In spring, oceanic moisture evaporated from the sea surface generates high SSS in the central SCS and directly feeds the precipitation over southern China and the YRV region. The resulting soil moisture anomalies last for about 3 months triggering land-atmosphere soil moisture feedback and modulating the tropospheric moisture content and circulation in the subsequent summer. Evaluation of the atmospheric moisture balance suggests both a dynamic contribution (stronger northward meridional winds) and a local thermodynamic contribution (higher tropospheric moisture content) enhance the summer moisture supply over the YRV, generating excessive summer precipitation. Thus, spring SSS in the SCS can be utilized as an indicator of subsequent summer precipitation over the YRV region, providing value for operational climate prediction and disaster early warning systems in China.Publisher's Note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

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“…However, more recent studies have challenged this viewpoint as too simplistic e.g., Chadwick et al, 2013) and there remains a large degree of uncertainty in the spatial patterns of precipitation changes among climate models in general . Given the challenges of measuring changes in global precipitation and evaporation, using observations of sea surface salinity may be the most tractable approach to monitoring long-term changes in the global hydrological cycle (e.g., Durack and Wijffels, 2010;Durack et al, 2012;Li et al, 2016a,b;Liu et al, 2018).…”

Section: Projected Changes In Ocean Heat and Freshwater Contentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Adequacy of the Ocean Observation System for Quantifying Regional Heat and Freshwater Storage and Change

et al. 2019

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Considerable advances in the global ocean observing system over the last two decades offers an opportunity to provide more quantitative information on changes in heat and freshwater storage. Variations in these storage terms can arise through internal variability and also the response of the ocean to anthropogenic climate change. Disentangling these competing influences on the regional patterns of change and elucidating their governing processes remains an outstanding scientific challenge. This challenge is compounded by instrumental and sampling uncertainties. The combined use of ocean observations and model simulations is the most viable method to assess the forced signal from noise and ascertain the primary drivers of variability and change. Moreover, this approach offers the potential for improved seasonal-to-decadal predictions and the possibility to develop powerful multi-variate constraints on climate model future projections. Regional heat storage changes dominate the steric contribution to sea level rise over most of the ocean and are vital to understanding both global and regional heat budgets. Variations in regional freshwater storage are particularly relevant to our understanding of changes in the hydrological cycle and can potentially be used to verify local ocean mass addition from terrestrial and cryospheric systems associated with contemporary sea level rise. This White Paper will examine the ability of the current ocean observing system to quantify changes in regional heat and freshwater storage. In particular we will seek to answer the question: What time and space scales are currently Frontiers in Marine Science | www.frontiersin.org 1 August 2019 | Volume 6 | Article 416Palmer et al.Regional Heat and Freshwater Observations resolved in different regions of the global oceans? In light of some of the key scientific questions, we will discuss the requirements for measurement accuracy, sampling, and coverage as well as the synergies that can be leveraged by more comprehensively analyzing the multi-variable arrays provided by the integrated observing system.

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Global Search for Autumn‐Lead Sea Surface Salinity Predictors of Winter Precipitation in Southwestern United States

Cited by 17 publications

References 68 publications

The Challenge of Sustaining Ocean Observations

The Challenge of Sustaining Ocean Observations

Forecast of summer precipitation in the Yangtze River Valley based on South China Sea springtime sea surface salinity

Adequacy of the Ocean Observation System for Quantifying Regional Heat and Freshwater Storage and Change

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