Global Sensitivity Analysis Using the Ultra‐Low Resolution Energy Exascale Earth System Model

Abstract

Understanding the impact of warming on the Arctic is important because regional events can lead to high-consequence global changes (Bathiany et al., 2016;Lenton, 2008Lenton, , 2012, including tipping points (irreversible changes in the global climate system (Lenton, 2008;Peterson et al., 2020)). Melting of the Greenland ice sheet will result in global sea level rise, with risks to coastal infrastructure (Graeter et al., 2018). Sea ice loss will lead to increased maritime activity and possibly geopolitical conflict as more nations vie for access to the region (L. C. Smith & Stephenson, 2013). In addition, there is evidence that loss of sea ice and Arctic warming can induce changes in midlatitude weather and precipitation (Cohen,