Global shifts in the phenological synchrony of species interactions over recent decades

Abstract

Phenological responses to climate change (e.g., earlier leaf-out or egg hatch date) are now well documented and clearly linked to rising temperatures in recent decades. Such shifts in the phenologies of interacting species may lead to shifts in their synchrony, with cascading community and ecosystem consequences. To date, single-system studies have provided no clear picture, either finding synchrony shifts may be extremely prevalent [Mayor SJ, et al. (2017) 7:1902] or relatively uncommon [Iler AM, et al. (2013) 19:2348-2359], suggesting that shifts toward asynchrony may be infrequent. A meta-analytic approach would provide insights into global trends and how they are linked to climate change. We compared phenological shifts among pairwise species interactions (e.g., predator-prey) using published long-term time-series data of phenological events from aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems across four continents since 1951 to determine whether recent climate change has led to overall shifts in synchrony. We show that the relative timing of key life cycle events of interacting species has changed significantly over the past 35 years. Further, by comparing the period before major climate change (pre-1980s) and after, we show that estimated changes in phenology and synchrony are greater in recent decades. However, there has been no consistent trend in the direction of these changes. Our findings show that there have been shifts in the timing of interacting species in recent decades; the next challenges are to improve our ability to predict the direction of change and understand the full consequences for communities and ecosystems.

Shifts in phenological mean and synchrony interact to shape competitive outcomes

“…, Kharoub et al. , Renner and Zohner ). Considering resource competitors, it is well known that order of arrival can strongly affect the interaction via size‐mediated priority effects (Sutherland and Karlson , Rasmussen et al.…”

The mechanisms of phenology: the patterns and processes of phenological shifts

“…The reality of global climate change has also presented researchers with an opportunity to observe patterns of variation in phenological shifts among interacting species (Kharouba et al. ), and a core motivation to develop a more mechanistic understanding of these shifts.…”

Comparing two measures of phenological synchrony in a predator–prey interaction: Simpler works better

“…Recent decades have seen a growing interest among biologists in the effect of climate warming on changes in phenology (Both et al, ; Dunn & Moller, ; Durant, Hjermann, Ottersen, & Stenseth, ; Parmesan & Yohe, ; Plard et al, ; Radchuk et al, ; Singer & Parmesan, ; Visser, ; Visser, Noordwijk, Tinbergen, & Lessells, ). Typically, warming springs lead to an advancement in phenological events and these advancements occur at different rates between different trophic levels (Kharouba et al, ; Thackeray et al, , ). The unequal shift in phenology between consumers and their resources, referred to as ‘phenological mismatch’ (Cushing, ; Durant et al, ; Stenseth & Mysterud, ; Visser & Gienapp, ), has in some cases been linked to directional selection on consumer phenology (Marrot, Charmantier, Blondel, & Garant, ; Reed, Jenouvrier, & Visser, ; Visser et al, ) and negative effects on consumer demography (Plard et al, ).…”