Global Spatial Projections of Forest Soil Respiration and Associated Uncertainties

Abstract

The accurate prediction of global forest soil respiration (Rs) is critical for climate change research. Rs consists of autotrophic (Ra) and heterotrophic (Rh) respiration, which respond differently to environmental factors. Predicting Rs as a single flux can be biased; therefore, Ra and Rh should be predicted separately to improve prediction accuracy. In this study, we used the SRDB_V5 database and the random forest model to analyze the uncertainty in predicting Rs using a single global model (SGM) and Ra/Rh using a specific categorical model (SCM) and predicted the spatial dynamics of the distribution pattern of forest Ra, Rh, and Rs in the future under the two different climate patterns. The results show that Rs is higher under tropical and inland climatic conditions, while Rh fluctuates less than Ra and Rs. In addition, the SCM predictions better capture key environmental factors and are more consistent with actual data. In the SSP585 (high emissions) scenario, Rs is projected to increase by 19.59 percent, while in the SSP126 (low emissions) scenario, Rs increases by only 3.76 percent over 80 years, which underlines the need for SCM in future projections.