Global supply chains in the pandemic

Abstract

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How Resilient was Trade to COVID-19?

“…We provide empirical evidence to inform two debates: whether reliance on inputs from abroad and China in particular, caused more vulnerabilities and how social distancing measures affected global production and exports. Thereby, our paper adds to the studies of the impacts of COVID-19 on trade and GVCs (e.g., Bonadio et al 2021;Cerdeiro and Komaromi, 2020;Demir and Javorcik 2020;Espitia et al 2021;Socrates, 2020;Crozet et al 2021). Using cross-country-product-month level data, Berthou and Stumpner (2021) show that lockdown measures implemented by exporter and importer countries impacted trade.…”

“…2 In robustness tests, we consider two alternative measures of COVID-19 incidence: the number of COVID-19 cases per capita also from the WHO and a measure of stay-at-home requirements imposed by each country each month from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker. 3 The latter measure captures the stringency of the economic lockdowns in place and is used in emerging research on COVID-19 impacts (e.g., Bonadio et al, 2021;Chen et al, 2020;Fernandez-Villaverde and Jones, 2020). 4 Summary statistics on the COVID-19 measures are provided in Appendix Table 1.…”

Trade and the COVID-19 Pandemic: Lessons from French Firms

“…This paper also relates to a number of studies on the role of GVCs in the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on trade flows across countries. Bonadio, Huo, Levchenko, and Pandalai-Nayar (2021) and C ¸akmaklı, Demiralp, Kalemli-Özcan, Yeşiltaş, and Yıldırım (2021) develop general equilibrium models of trade to quantify these effects and understand the implications of the pandemic on the future of GVCs and identify optimal policies in the aftermath of the shock. Bonadio, Huo, Levchenko, and Pandalai-Nayar (2021) show that GVCs play an important role in the transmission of pandemic-related labor supply shocks across countries.…”

“…Bonadio, Huo, Levchenko, and Pandalai-Nayar (2021) and C ¸akmaklı, Demiralp, Kalemli-Özcan, Yeşiltaş, and Yıldırım (2021) develop general equilibrium models of trade to quantify these effects and understand the implications of the pandemic on the future of GVCs and identify optimal policies in the aftermath of the shock. Bonadio, Huo, Levchenko, and Pandalai-Nayar (2021) show that GVCs play an important role in the transmission of pandemic-related labor supply shocks across countries. However, they show that the economic impact of the pandemic would have been substantially larger in the absence of global trade.…”

Assessing the impact of COVID-19 on price Co-movements in China

“…Significant changes in prices stem from many sources, including labor supply abruptions, debt responses, government sales and taxes, and consumption pattern changes. Specifically, Bonadio et al (2021) note that a contraction in labor supply due to the global lockdown produces approximate 30% GDP drop in 64 sample countries. In addition, they find that the participation in global supply chains generally alleviates the pandemic-induced contraction in labor supply, but the extent varies across different countries.…”