Global total ozone recovery trends attributed to ozone-depleting substance (ODS) changes derived from five merged ozone datasets

Weber, Mark; Arosio, Carlo; Coldewey‐Egbers, Melanie; Fioletov, Vitali; Frith, S. M.; Wild, Jeannette; Tourpali, Kleareti; Burrows, John P.; Loyola, Diego

doi:10.5194/acp-22-6843-2022

Cited by 61 publications

(80 citation statements)

References 85 publications

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“…Various studies investigated how such predictors can be used in multiple linear regressions to derive trends at high latitudes (e.g. Knibbe et al, 2014;Kuttippurath et al, 2015;De Laat et al, 2015;Weber et al, 2022;Pazmiño et al, 2018). We investigate the use of the most relevant predictors in addition to the LOTUS default predictors.…”

Section: Regression Predictorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Langematz et al, 2018). Given these challenges, several studies investigated Arctic spring total ozone and found no significant trends (Knibbe et al, 2014;Solomon et al, 2016;Weber et al, 2018Weber et al, , 2022.…”

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confidence: 99%

“…Only few studies have investigated regional total ozone recovery at northern high-latitudes from ground-based measurements. Global total ozone trends from groundbased and satellite data including polar regions have been extensively investigated by Weber et al (2018Weber et al ( , 2022), but regional trend differences were not addressed. Trends at four Arctic stations derived from ozonesonde measurements were presented by Bahramvash Shams et al ( 2019), but the analysis period was short (2005 to 2017) and ozonesonde launches are generally sparse.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Total ozone trends at three northern high-latitude stations

Bernet,

Svendby,

Hansen

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Abstract. After the decrease of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) as a consequence of the Montreal Protocol, it is still challenging to detect a recovery in the total column amount of ozone (total ozone) at northern high-latitudes. To assess regional total ozone changes in the "ozone-recovery"-period (2000–2020) at northern high-latitudes, this study investigates trends from ground-based total ozone measurements at three stations in Norway (Oslo, Andøya, and Ny-Ålesund). For this purpose, we combine measurements from Brewer spectrophotometers, ground-based UV filter radiometers (GUVs), and a SAOZ instrument. The Brewer measurements have been extended to work under cloudy conditions using the global irradiance (GI) technique, which is also presented in this study. We derive trends from the combined ground-based time series with the multiple linear regression model from the Long-term Ozone Trends and Uncertainties in the Stratosphere (LOTUS) project. We evaluate various predictors in the regression model and found that tropopause pressure and lower-stratospheric temperature contribute most to ozone variability at the three stations. We report significant positive trends at Andøya (0.9 % per decade) and Ny-Ålesund (1.5 % per decade) and no annual trends at Oslo, but significant positive trends in autumn at all stations. Finally we found positive but insignificant trends of around 3 % per decade in March at all three stations, which may be an indication for Arctic spring-time ozone recovery. Our results contribute to a better understanding of regional total ozone trends at northern high-latitudes, which is essential to assess how Arctic ozone responds to changes in ODSs and to climate change.

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Section: Regression Predictorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

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Total ozone trends at three northern high-latitude stations

Bernet,

Svendby,

Hansen

et al. 2022

Preprint

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“…ODSs have since been declining as a result of the Montreal Protocol and its amendments, and strato-spheric ODS loading reached its maximum in the mid-to late 1990s (WMO, 2014(WMO, , 2018. The ozone decline stopped around the same time, but the recovery of the ozone column is still not statistically significant (WMO, 2018), with the exception of emerging significant positive trends at southern mid-latitudes (Weber et al, 2022). Column ozone, however, is not the best metric to describe current stratospheric ozone changes, in part because the ODS decline is not nec-essarily the primary driver of ozone trends.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Stratospheric ozone trends for 1984–2021 in the SAGE II–OSIRIS–SAGE III/ISS composite dataset

et al. 2022

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Abstract. After decades of depletion in the 20th century, near-global ozone now shows clear signs of recovery in the upper stratosphere. The ozone column, however, has remained largely constant since the turn of the century, mainly due to the evolution of lower stratospheric ozone. In the tropical lower stratosphere, ozone is expected to decrease as a consequence of enhanced upwelling driven by increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, and this is consistent with observations. There is recent evidence, however, that mid-latitude ozone continues to decrease as well, contrary to model predictions. These changes are likely related to dynamical variability, but the impact of changing circulation patterns on stratospheric ozone is not well understood. Here we use merged measurements from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II (SAGE II), the Optical Spectrograph and InfraRed Imaging System (OSIRIS), and SAGE III on the International Space Station (SAGE III/ISS) to quantify ozone trends in the 2000–2021 period. We implement a sampling correction for the OSIRIS and SAGE III/ISS datasets and assess trend significance, taking into account the temporal differences with respect to Aura Microwave Limb Sounder data. We show that ozone has increased by 2 %–6 % in the upper and 1 %–3 % in the middle stratosphere since 2000, while lower stratospheric ozone has decreased by similar amounts. These decreases are significant in the tropics (>95 % confidence) but not necessarily at mid-latitudes (>80 % confidence). In the upper and middle stratosphere, changes since 2010 have pointed to hemispheric asymmetries in ozone recovery. Significant positive trends are present in the Southern Hemisphere, while ozone at northern mid-latitudes has remained largely unchanged in the last decade. These differences might be related to asymmetries and long-term variability in the Brewer–Dobson circulation. Circulation changes impact ozone in the lower stratosphere even more. In tropopause-relative coordinates, most of the negative trends in the tropics lose significance, highlighting the impacts of a warming troposphere and increasing tropopause altitudes.

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“…The 1987 Montreal Protocol, and its subsequent amendments during the 1990s, mandated the decrease and eventual cessation of the worldwide production of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) (Wilka et al, 2021). Within the past few years, ever stronger evidence for global ozone stabilization and a nascent Antarctic ozone recovery has emerged (e.g., Solomon et al, 2016;Weber et al, 2022). Therefore, it is important to identify any deviation from the signatures indicating the long-term healing of the ozone layer and to consider all impacts on ozone depletion in respective modeling studies (Solomon et al, 2022;Bernath et al, 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ozone depletion in the Arctic and Antarctic stratosphere induced by wildfire smoke

et al. 2022

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Abstract. A record-breaking stratospheric ozone loss was observed over the Arctic and Antarctica in 2020. Strong ozone depletion occurred over Antarctica in 2021 as well. The ozone holes developed in smoke-polluted air. In this article, the impact of Siberian and Australian wildfire smoke (dominated by organic aerosol) on the extraordinarily strong ozone reduction is discussed. The study is based on aerosol lidar observations in the North Pole region (October 2019–May 2020) and over Punta Arenas in southern Chile at 53.2∘ S (January 2020–November 2021) as well as on respective NDACC (Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change) ozone profile observations in the Arctic (Ny-Ålesund) and Antarctica (Neumayer and South Pole stations) in 2020 and 2021. We present a conceptual approach on how the smoke may have influenced the formation of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs), which are of key importance in the ozone-depleting processes. The main results are as follows: (a) the direct impact of wildfire smoke below the PSC height range (at 10–12 km) on ozone reduction seems to be similar to well-known volcanic sulfate aerosol effects. At heights of 10–12 km, smoke particle surface area (SA) concentrations of 5–7 µm2 cm−3 (Antarctica, spring 2021) and 6–10 µm2 cm−3 (Arctic, spring 2020) were correlated with an ozone reduction in terms of ozone partial pressure of 0.4–1.2 mPa (about 30 % further ozone reduction over Antarctica) and of 2–3.5 mPa (Arctic, 20 %–30 % reduction with respect to the long-term springtime mean). (b) Within the PSC height range, we found indications that smoke was able to slightly increase the PSC particle number and surface area concentration. In particular, a smoke-related additional ozone loss of 1–2 mPa (10 %–20 % contribution to the total ozone loss over Antarctica) was observed in the 14–23 km PSC height range in September–October 2020 and 2021. Smoke particle number concentrations ranged from 10 to 100 cm−3 and were about a factor of 10 (in 2020) and 5 (in 2021) above the stratospheric aerosol background level. Satellite observations indicated an additional mean column ozone loss (deviation from the long-term mean) of 26–30 Dobson units (9 %–10 %, September 2020, 2021) and 52–57 Dobson units (17 %–20 %, October 2020, 2021) in the smoke-polluted latitudinal Antarctic belt from 70–80∘ S.

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Global total ozone recovery trends attributed to ozone-depleting substance (ODS) changes derived from five merged ozone datasets

Cited by 61 publications

References 85 publications

Total ozone trends at three northern high-latitude stations

Total ozone trends at three northern high-latitude stations

Stratospheric ozone trends for 1984–2021 in the SAGE II–OSIRIS–SAGE III/ISS composite dataset

Ozone depletion in the Arctic and Antarctic stratosphere induced by wildfire smoke

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