Global trend of aetiology-based primary liver cancer incidence from 1990 to 2030: a modelling study

Abstract

Background Predictions of primary liver cancer (PLC) incidence rates and case numbers are critical to understand and plan for PLC disease burden. Methods Data on PLC incidence rates and case numbers from 1990 to 2017 were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease database. The estimated average percentage change (EAPC) was calculated to quantify the trends of PLC age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs). Bayesian age-period-cohort models were constructed to project PLC incidence rates and case numbers through 2030. Results Globally, the PLC case number doubled from 472 300 in 1990 to 953 100 in 2017. The case number will further increase to 1 571 200 in 2030, and the ASR will increase from 11.80 per 100 000 in 2018 to 14.08 per 100 000 in 2030. The most pronounced increases are observed in people afflicted by non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and in older people. The trends of PLC incidence rates between 1990 and 2030 are heterogeneous among countries and can be summarized as five scenarios: (i) 46 countries that have and will continue to experience a persistent increase (e.g. Australia); (ii) 21 countries that experienced an initial decrease (or remained stable) but are predicted to increase (e.g. China); (iii) 7 countries that experienced an initial increase but are predicted to remain stable (e.g. USA); (iv) 29 countries that experienced an initial increase but are predicted to decrease (e.g. Egypt); and (v) 82 countries that have and will continue to experience a persistent decrease (e.g. Japan). Conclusion PLC incidence rates and case numbers are anticipated to increase at the global level through 2030. The increases in people afflicted by NASH and among older people suggest a dearth of attention for these populations in current prevention strategies and highlight their priority in future schedules for global control of PLC.

Burden of Thyroid Cancer From 1990 to 2019 and Projections of Incidence and Mortality Until 2039 in China: Findings From Global Burden of Disease Study

“…EAPC is a summative and widely used measure for rate trends over specified intervals, which was calculated according to a regression model fitted to the natural logarithm of the rate, namely ln (rate) = a + b × (calendar year) + e, and EAPC was defined as 100 × (exp (b) −1). Its 95% confidence interval (95% CI) was also obtained from the linear regression model (23). The rate was deemed to be increased if the EAPC estimation and the lower boundary of its 95% CI were both >0.…”

“…Previously, several methods have been used to predict cancer incidence based on population data, including the age-periodcohort (APC) model, Nordpred model, Bayesian age-periodcohort (BAPC) model, Bayesian age-period-cohort modeling, and prediction (BAMP) model, and Poisson regression (23)(24)(25)(26). Comparative studies based on these methods have demonstrated that age-period-cohort approaches have better predictive performance than time series approaches, especially, the probabilistic forecasts obtained by the Bayesian APC model are well calibrated and not too wide (27,28).…”

The Clinical Role of Serum Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 3 in Hepatitis C Virus-Infected Patients with Early Hepatocellular Carcinoma

“…Despite the availability of direct-acting antivirals, chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection still represents a major cause of liver disease and cirrhosis, a condition at high risk for HCC development [2,3]. It has been calculated that 2.5% of patients affected by chronic HCV infection develop HCC [4], and the incidence rate of HCC is expected to further increase between 2018 and 2030 [5].…”

Current impact of viral hepatitis on liver cancer development: The challenge remains

“…According to the etiology of liver disease, HBV was responsible for 46.5% of cases of liver cancer in 1990 and 42.4% in 2017, and it is estimated that it will be associated with 40.7% of cases in 2030. With regard to HCV, it was associated with 25.2% of cases of primary liver cancer in 1990 and 27.0% in 2017, and it is projected that it will be responsible for 26.8% of cases in 2030[ 13 ]. The aim of this article is to review the current impact of viral hepatitis on the development of liver cancer, the characteristics of viral hepatitis-related HCC and the challenges to reduce their burden (Figure 1 ).…”