Global Urban Passenger Travel Demand and CO₂ Emissions to 2050: New Model

Abstract

This paper presents long-term scenarios on the development of urban passenger mobility and related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 2050 in global cities that have populations greater than 300,000 on the basis of the International Transport Forum’s new global urban passenger transport model. Results from the policy scenarios analysis show that in the baseline scenario total motorized mobility and related CO2 emissions in cities will grow by 94% and 27% in 2050 compared with 2015. The share of private cars will continue to increase in developing regions while slightly decreasing in developed economies. Policy measures exist to fulfill mobility demand while reducing the carbon intensity of travel. Technology contributes the most to the CO2 mitigation in the most transit-oriented scenarios. Behavioral policies such as fuel tax, lower transit fares, and controlled urban sprawl can bring the additional mitigation efforts required to make cities sustainable and are essential to combat congestion and health issues.

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“…o Congestion: By 2050, there will be 2.4 billion additional urban dwellers compared with 2015. This strong urbanization process will create a substantial new demand for mobility in cities (Chen, 2017). As an example, London's population is expected to grow 20% to 10.5 million by 2041 (TfL, 2017) with the number of trips made on existing transport infrastructure expected to rise from 26.7 million in 2015 to 32.2 million per day by 2041 (TfL, 2016).…”

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“…ITF global urban passenger model is a tool that estimates and forecasts transport activities in cities at an aggregated level (Chen and Kauppila, 2017). It takes as input the main variables shaping transport demand, such as population growth, economic activities, the availability and quality of urban roads, and the efficiency of the public transport network.…”

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“…Transport is a substantial source of urban greenhouse gas emissions. Chen and Kauppila [6] estimated that, in 2015, world urban systems, limited to cities of over 300,000 people, covered 37% of global CO 2 emissions from passenger transport and 20% of the entire transport sector. Cities have tried to increase energy efficiency in transportation.…”