Global vulnerability and resilience of coastal ecosystems to tropical cyclones in a warming climate

Abstract

Coastal ecosystems are recognized to provide a large range of services including erosion prevention, clean water provision, or protection from tropical cyclones storms. However, with climate change, the increase in frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones may alter the composition of the ecosystems themselves potentially degrading the various services they provide. While in general ecosystems are adapted to external perturbations, extreme events can promote rapid and durable shifts. In this study, we quantify the vulnerability of all ecosystems described as ecoregions at a global scale by analyzing the wind fields of tropical cyclones generated from probabilistic historical tracks. We then investigate how tropical cyclone intensity and frequency shifting in a warming climate might lead to ecosystem modifications. We show that a combined 13% of the surface of all terrestrial ecosystems is susceptible to transformation due to cyclone pattern changes between 2020 and 2050 under current policies. Even for the most resilient ecosystems already experiencing winds above 60 m/s regularly, the average interval between two storms is projected to decrease from 19 to 12 years which is potentially close to their recovery time. Our global probabilistic approach being embedded in the established IPCC climate risk frameworks enables the study of a broad temporal range, and advocates for a shift in the consideration of the tropical cyclone impact from immediate damage to effects on long-term natural recovery cycles.

OpenStreetMap for multi-faceted climate risk assessments

“…In recent years, there has been a trend towards more holistic, quantitative views of the consequences of extreme weather events as opposed to focusing on monetary asset losses alone. Exemplary studies investigate, e.g., displaced population (Kam et al 2021), basic service disruptions , or affected ecosystems (Kropf et al 2023). Wider quantitative perspectives will allow decision-makers to not inherently prioritize monetary elements because of the absence of other quantifiable criteria.…”