Global warming modifies the seasonal distribution of clutches on a Mediterranean great tit population

Abstract

Global warming has multiple effects on phenological events on a wide range of plants and animals. Specifically, many bird species have advanced the start of their breeding season, which could also imply an extension in its duration and also a change in the distribution of clutches throughout the breeding season. We have tested whether this occurred in a population of Great Tits (Parus major), in Sagunto (eastern Spain). The increase of March temperatures between 1986 and 2019 was related to an advancement of the breeding season. Although the breeding season was longer in years with higher June temperatures, the length did not show a temporal trend throughout the study period. The clutches were more concentrated at the beginning of the season (increase in the skewness), while the kurtosis (“tailedness” of the distribution) or the modality did not change significantly. Finally, the number of “equally good months” for breeding (a combined measure of length and distribution) has not changed throughout the years. Overall, all these phenological changes probably caused the observed increased proportion of pairs laying two clutches per year. It remains to be studied whether this increase in reproductive effort has positive or negative impact on fitness.