Global warming over the period 1961–2008 did not increase high-temperature stress but did reduce low-temperature stress in irrigated rice across China

Sun, Wenxing; Huang, Yao

doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2011.04.009

Cited by 102 publications

(57 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…2). These findings expand on the recent conclusions by Sun andZhang et al (2014), who only focused on the spatio-temporal pattern of ETS indexes but failed to identify how much yield loss was caused by ETS. In particular, Regions I and III 2 were considered to be the most vulnerable areas to ETS ( Fig.…”

Section: A General View On Rice Yield Loss From Ets and Its Main Mechsupporting

confidence: 57%

“…1). Rice cultivation in these areas contributes ∼96 and ∼94 % of the total rice area and rice production in China, respectively; single rice dominates northern and southwestern China, while double rice (i.e., early-late rice rotation) is common in south of 30°N latitude (Sun and Huang 2011). The study area was divided into four regions in Fig.…”

Section: Study Area and Data Sourcesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In particular, as the world's largest rice producer, China has witnessed significant climate warming since the 1980s (Lobell et al 2011a;Tao et al 2012), coming with increased frequency and severity of extreme temperature events across the major irrigated rice planting areas . Recently, numerous studies have found rice production in China is severely threatened by extreme temperature stress (ETS) in different meteorological index calculations; however, these studies have seldom evaluated the associations between the ETS indexes and yield loss (Sun and Huang 2011;Zhang et al 2014). Therefore, it is necessary to take a deeper look at the extent and mechanisms of yield loss caused by ETS (YL ETS ) in the irrigated rice cultivation area of China.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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How much yield loss has been caused by extreme temperature stress to the irrigated rice production in China?

et al. 2015

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Extreme temperature stress (ETS) is recognized as an important threat to the food supply in China. However, how much yield loss caused by ETS (YL ETS ) to the irrigated rice production still remains unclear. In this study, we provided a prototype for YL ETS assessments by using a process-based crop model (MCWLA-Rice) with the ETS impacts explicitly parameterized, to help understand the spatio-temporal patterns of YL ETS and the mechanism underlying the ETS impacts at a 0.5°×0.5°grid scale in the major irrigated rice planting areas across China during 1981-2010. On the basis of the optimal 30 sets of parameters, the ensemble simulations indicated the following: Regions I (northeastern China) and III 2 (the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River) were considered to be the most vulnerable areas to ETS, with the medium YL ETS of 18.4 and 12.9 %, respectively. Furthermore, large YL ETS values (>10 %) were found in some portions of Region II (the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau), western Region III 1 (the Sichuan Basin), the middle of Region IV_ER (southern China cultivated by early rice), and the west and southeast of Region IV_LR (southern China cultivated by late rice). Over the past several decades, a significant decrease in YL ETS was detected in most of Region I and in northern Region IV_LR (with the medians of −0.53 and −0.28 % year −1 , respectively). However, a significant increase was found in most of Region III (including III 1 and III 2 ) and in Region IV_ER, particularly in the last decade (2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010). Overall, reduced cold stress has improved the conditions for irrigated rice production across Climatic Change (2016) 134:635-650

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Section: A General View On Rice Yield Loss From Ets and Its Main Mechsupporting

confidence: 57%

Section: Study Area and Data Sourcesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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How much yield loss has been caused by extreme temperature stress to the irrigated rice production in China?

et al. 2015

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“…Many factors that contribute to the yield increase, such as changes in rice varieties, fertilizer, rice phenology dynamics [35,36], cultivar replacement [37], irrigation and crop management [38,39], have to be taken in account [40]. Because of the rapid expansion in rice area, the rice yield also benefited from this process [17].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Geographical Variation of Climate Change Impact on Rice Yield in the Rice-Cropping Areas of Northeast China during 1980–2008

Liu

Yang

2016

Sustainability

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Northeast China (NEC) is one of China's major rice production areas and has experienced obvious climate warming over the past three decades, similar to other mid-to high-latitude regions in the Northern Hemisphere. The present study investigates the temporal and spatial impacts of climate warming on rice yield in mid-high latitude regions. In this study, two time series datasets of rice yield and climate records in the NEC, including 178 county sites and 105 climate stations and covering the period from 1980 to 2008, were compiled. From these data, the responses of rice yield to the rice-growing season temperature (GST), growing degree days (GDD), and precipitation (GSP) were estimated using a regression model. The results indicate that rice yield benefits from climate warming in the NEC. GST positively impacted rice yield in 64.6% of the counties, with an increase of approximately 3.65%; GDD positively impacted yield in 64% of the counties, an increase of approximately 3.2%; and GSP negatively impacted rice yield in 68% of the counties, with a decrease of approximately´2.3%. Spatial variation was observed in the climate-rice yield relationships. The statistical relationships of GST and GDD with rice yield were significantly and positively correlated with latitude, longitude, and altitude, while that of GSP and rice yield was significantly and negatively correlated with latitude and longitude and showed a nonsignificant positive correlation with altitude. In summary, climate warming has significantly increased rice yield over the last three decades in the region north of 42˝N, east of 122.4˝E, and at an elevation of 134-473 m, which covers the majority of the rice-growing areas in the NEC.

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“…Here, only the peak value within the time appropriate window was identified as the potential single rice. The 3-month limitations would not exclude the heading-flowering stage (Sun and Huang 2011).…”

Section: Extraction Of the Heading-flowering Stagesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic variability of the heading–flowering stages of single rice in China based on field observations and NDVI estimations

et al. 2014

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Although many studies have indicated the consistent impact of warming on the natural ecosystem (e.g., an early flowering and prolonged growing period), our knowledge of the impacts on agricultural systems is still poorly understood. In this study, spatiotemporal variability of the heading-flowering stages of single rice was detected and compared at three different scales using field-based methods (FBMs) and satellite-based methods (SBMs). The headingflowering stages from 2000 to 2009 with a spatial resolution of 1 km were extracted from the SPOT/VGT NDVI time series data using the Savizky-Golay filtering method in the areas in China dominated by single rice of Northeast China (NE), the middle-lower Yangtze River Valley (YZ), the Sichuan Basin (SC), and the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau (YG). We found that approximately 52.6 and 76.3 % of the estimated heading-flowering stages by a SBM were within ±5 and ±10 days estimation error (a root mean square error (RMSE) of 8.76 days) when compared with those determined by a FBM. Both the FBM data and the SBM data had indicated a similar spatial pattern, with the earliest annual average heading-flowering stages in SC, followed by YG, NE, and YZ, which were inconsistent with the patterns reported in natural ecosystems. Moreover, diverse temporal trends were also detected in the four regions due to different climate conditions and agronomic factors such as cultivar shifts. Nevertheless, there were no significant differences (p>0.05) between the FBM and the SBM in both the regional average value of the phenological stages and the trends, implying the consistency and rationality of the SBM at three scales.

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Global warming over the period 1961–2008 did not increase high-temperature stress but did reduce low-temperature stress in irrigated rice across China

Cited by 102 publications

References 27 publications

How much yield loss has been caused by extreme temperature stress to the irrigated rice production in China?

How much yield loss has been caused by extreme temperature stress to the irrigated rice production in China?

Geographical Variation of Climate Change Impact on Rice Yield in the Rice-Cropping Areas of Northeast China during 1980–2008

Dynamic variability of the heading–flowering stages of single rice in China based on field observations and NDVI estimations

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