Global warming to increase violent crime in the United States

Abstract

Recent studies have revealed large and robust correlations between seasonal climate and violent crime rates at regional scales within the continental United States, begging the question of how future climate change will influence violent crime rates. Here, we combine empirical models from previous studies with 42 state-of-the-art global climate models to make such projections, while accounting for key factors like regionality and seasonality, and appropriately combining multiple of sources of uncertainty. Our results indicate that the United States should expect an additional 3.2 [2.1-4.5] or 2.3 [1.5-3.2] million violent crimes between 2020 and 2099, depending on greenhouse gas emissions scenario. We also reveal critical dependencies of these violent crime projections on various global warming targets, such as those associated with the Paris Agreement (1.5°C and 2°C). These results emphasize the often-overlooked socially-mediated impacts of climate change on human health, with an estimated economic cost of $5 billion annually.

Our Hot Future Has Arrived—Are We Prepared?

“…Grappling with the challenges to emergency medical services and pressures on Emergency Department staffing need to include extreme heat planning (e.g., van Loenhout et al., 2018 ). Challenges to public safety posed by impacts of heat waves on enhancing crime rates (Harp & Karnauskas, 2018 , 2020 ) also need consideration of staffing and training of personnel. Outdoor labor is particularly vulnerable to heat morbidity and mortality due to the nature of the work (i.e., long hours outside in the sun typically without cooling), requiring development and adherence to heat safety standards (Morrissey et al., 2021 ).…”

The Influence of Extreme Heat on Police and Fire Department Services in 23 U.S. Cities

“…Extreme heat has also been found to result in increased aggression (Anderson, 2001; Butke & Sheridan, 2010) and violent behavior (Anderson, 2001; Michel et al, 2016; Rotton & Cohn, 2000, 2004; Tiihonen et al, 2017). Projections within the United States have demonstrated that the United States may experience 2.3–3.2 million more violent crimes by the end of the century depending on greenhouse gas emissions trajectories (Harp & Karnauskas, 2020).…”