GLOF hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and risk assessment of potentially dangerous glacial lakes in the Bhutan Himalaya

Rinzin, Sonam; Zhang, Guoqing; Sattar, Ashim; Wangchuk, Sonam; Allen, Simon; Dunning, Stuart; Peng, Menger

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129311

Cited by 25 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 76 publications

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“…Factors leading to the sudden outburst of GLOFs include the fall of material into glacial lakes (ice/rock avalanches, rockfalls, snow and ice melt, upstream ooding, etc. ), the destabilization of morainic material, the type of dams, and other parameters such as glacier-lake area and capacity, strong seismic activity, and extreme hydrological conditions 27,28 . In general, with the melting and retreat of glaciers, rapid urban development, tourism, commerce, new energy development, and infrastructure expansion toward mountainous areas will lead to an increase in the population.…”

Section: Differentiation Of In Uencing Factors In Exposure Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We utilized glacier thickness data (Huss and Hock, 2018) and a digital elevation model (AW3D30 V) with a spatial resolution of 30 m to detect the depressed areas in the ice bed under different scenarios as the potential location and evolution direction of the future glacial lake. Future glacial lake trends in the Tienshan region in 2050 and 2100 were projected by combining three different CO 2 emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) and assuming a scenario in which the glacier disappears completely 41 .…”

Section: Glacial Lake Area and Volumementioning

confidence: 99%

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Spatiotemporal Distribution Characteristics of Glacial Lakes and their outburst flood risk assessment in the Central Asian Tienshan Mountains

Chen

2024

Preprint

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Global warming has accelerated the melting of mountain glaciers and intensified the formation and expansion of glacial lakes. This phenomenon has led to an increased risk of glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs), posing a severe threat to downstream residents of the water supply and water conservancy facilities. Glacial lake outburst floods have become a significant concern in mountain hazard research. The present paper uses multi-temporal Landsat sequence remote sensing images, Sentinel-2A/2B image data, and a semi-automatic water body extraction algorithm with global-local threshold segmentation to extract glacial lake boundaries in the Tienshan Mountains of Central Asia from 1990 to 2023, analyzing their spatial and temporal characteristics. An improved GLOF hazard and risk assessment model is used to evaluate hazard and risk levels under various current and future scenarios. The results show that during the study period, the number and area of glacial lakes increased 148% (from 1,837 to 4,557) and 64.32% (from 119.73 km2 to 205.73 km2), with moraine lake expansion predominating. Spatially, glacial lakes are mainly distributed in Central and Western Tienshan, accounting for 75% of the entire Tienshan region. In Western Tienshan, the high or very high risk of GLOF is 3-4 times that of other areas, while in Eastern Tian Shan, about half the glacial lakes have high or higher GLOF hazard levels, and in Northern Tienshan, only 30.91% have high hazard levels. By the middle of the 21st century, with further climate warming, GLOF risk and potential threats will continue to increase, especially in Western Tienshan. This study can provide scientific data for water resource utilization and a foundation for disaster prevention and reduction in the region’s downstream areas.

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Section: Differentiation Of In Uencing Factors In Exposure Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Glacial Lake Area and Volumementioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal Distribution Characteristics of Glacial Lakes and their outburst flood risk assessment in the Central Asian Tienshan Mountains

Chen

2024

Preprint

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“…Consider the melting of non-polar glaciers, notably in the Hindu-Kush Himalayas. While their accelerated retreat due to rising air temperatures and black carbon deposition raises long-term water availability concerns, in the short-to-medium term, glacier-melt has augmented water supply for millions [11]. Such nuances emphasize the need to approach water challenges with a balanced perspective, acknowledging benefits where they arise while planning for future risks.…”

Section: In Perspective: Climate Change Sdg 6 and Institutional Failuresmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…10 Water Resources Research Center, University of Hawaii, Honolulu 96822, HI, USA. 11 University of Glasgow, Glasgow, Scotland, UK. 12 Water Management International Pvt.…”

Section: Fundingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Water woes: the institutional challenges in achieving SDG 6

Evaristo,

Jameel,

Tortajada

et al. 2023

Sustain Earth Reviews

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Background Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 6 envisions a future where everyone has access to clean water and sanitation. Yet, as 2030 looms closer, the complexity of achieving this target becomes apparent, with issues far surpassing basic water infrastructure and utility challenges. The underlying problems lie in broader spheres such as governance, policymaking, and financing. Main body The global landscape of water management is marked by complexities that transcend the operational troubles of water utilities. Financial sustainability is a monumental task. And while it is true that water utilities struggle with revenue generation, the broader picture reveals systemic challenges. The true cost of water provision often extends to ecosystem services such as watershed protection. Often, these services are not internalized in the revenue models of utilities but are typically subsidized by governments or simply not considered. Balancing affordability for users with cost recovery for service providers, however, is not just an arithmetic exercise. It is also a question of equitable policies. Non-revenue water (NRW), resulting from physical losses such as leaks, theft, and inaccurate [or lack of] metering, exacerbates existing financial strain. Annual NRW losses are estimated at an astonishing 126 billion cubic meters, costing roughly USD 39 billion. But at the most fundamental level of achieving SDG 6 is misgovernance. Effective water governance demands consistent policies, coherent collaboration among diverse stakeholders, and comprehensive strategies that cater to specific regional contexts. Current models often suffer from fragmented policies, inadequate public-private partnerships, and weak engagement mechanisms. A glaring gap exists between academic advancements in water management and their practical implementation in policymaking. Moreover, international cooperation, while vital, reveals an unequal landscape in knowledge exchange. Knowledge transfer is often skewed, favoring dominant nations while sidelining voices from the Global South. This emphasizes the need for an inclusive, equitable, and context-specific global cooperation model. Conclusion The road to realizing SDG 6 is multifaceted, and while on-the-ground solutions are essential, the real success lies in addressing the foundational challenges. This requires innovative financial solutions, reimagining water governance structures, and ensuring all voices, especially from the Global South, are heard and integrated into global policies. As 2030 nears, it is the synergy of governance, finance, and technology that will ultimately make clean water and sanitation a reality for all.

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“…The volume of a glacial lake is an important input parameter for many hydrological applications such as modelling the severity of GLOF events (e.g., Rinzin et al, 2023;Emmer et al, 2022); estimating glacier retreat when coupled with various minimalistic ice-flow models (Oerlemans and Nick, 2006); and local small-scale hydropower production (e.g., Sattar et al, 2019). Unfortunately, glacial lakes are often located in some of the most remote and challenging terrains, making the in-situ measurement of their volumes extremely difficult.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Bayesian approach to estimate proglacial lake volume (BE-GLAV)

Gantayat,

Sattar,

Haritashya

et al. 2024

Preprint

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GLOF hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and risk assessment of potentially dangerous glacial lakes in the Bhutan Himalaya

Cited by 25 publications

References 76 publications

Spatiotemporal Distribution Characteristics of Glacial Lakes and their outburst flood risk assessment in the Central Asian Tienshan Mountains

Spatiotemporal Distribution Characteristics of Glacial Lakes and their outburst flood risk assessment in the Central Asian Tienshan Mountains

Water woes: the institutional challenges in achieving SDG 6

Bayesian approach to estimate proglacial lake volume (BE-GLAV)

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